Jul 10

Daily Analysis – Tuesday 10th

 

PONTEFRACT – JULY 10

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Richard Fahey (6/1, 5/1 & 9/4*) – 2 runners: Danehill Desert (2.30) & Private Matter (3.30)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

5/21—Richard Fahey (16/1, 7/2, 7/2**, 3/1* & 11/4) – 2 runners (as above)

3/12—Kevin Ryan (6/1, 5/1 & 10/3) – 1 runner: Ahian Bil Emarti (2.00)

 

2.00: Please see the Nursery details below for nominating Red Hut Red over Octave this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via the last seven renewals

Win selection: Red Hut Red

Overnight market activity: Red Hut Red was still available at 10/3 with Hills at the time of writing – shorter elsewhere….

 

2.30: Danehill Desert and Palmer are my pair against the field, given the trainer Kevin Ryan swerves the race having secured four victories from as many runners during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won every other year during the last decade though the favourite is set to miss out this time around if you believe in trends of that extreme!   

Overnight market activity:

Nothing to report

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and Shenanigans and Paco’s Angel should extend the run between them on behalf of the vintage.  That said, it’s worth noting the market activity mentioned below for the only older horse in the field.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won three of the last seven contests.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Isabella (good)

1/1—Pattie (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking bundles of liquidity but Promising Run was the horse for money overnight

 

3.30: David O’Meara has a few chances on the card with Watchable arguably be the best of them today, especially with six of the last seven winners having carried weights of 9-5 or more.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 7/2 favourite was the only market leader to oblige since 2008.

Each way selection: Watchable

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

3/7—Highly Sprung (3 x good to firm)

2/14—Mr Orange (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There has been some money for Watchable over the hour or two…

 

4.00: Along with fellow Godolphin raider Promising Run earlier on the card, Recordman boasts claims here, though Roger Charlton’s Frankel colt Herculean should really be winning this contest if he is to fulfil expectations.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

Overnight market activity:

None of note

 

4.30: A couple of each way types create some interest in the contest, listing Archie Perkins ahead of Mearing from a value for money perspective.

Favourite factor: Market leaders secured a hat trick between 2013/15 but the last two jollies have been turned over in races won by 6/1 and 15/8 chances.

Each way selection: Archie Perkins

Overnight market activity:

Archie Perkins should never have been a 14/1 chance in my book – as short as 9/1 with Skybet in the last few minutes having been 14/1 with them as well as 365/Betway/BetVictor earlier this morning.  14/1 is still available if you’re quick!

 

5.00: Seven pound claimer Oliver Stammers have ridden five winners via a 16% strike rate which gives Firfinleu an edge in a race I might otherwise have swerved.  The overnight money for Mark Johnston’s raider adds some confidence with the trainer being well known for taking advantage of a decent claim for a rider who has already bagged a handful of winners.

Favourite factor: The inaugural market leader scored at 7/4 but subsequent gold medallists have posted victories at 12/1 & 8/1.

Win selection: Forfinleu

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/3—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

2/4—Quoteline Direct (2 x good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Firlinfeu was the only horse for money during the dead of night, albeit to moderate liquidity

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

 

 

 

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