Badly Drawn Horse: Who to follow from the 2013 Jersey Stakes…
2.30 Ascot (19-06-13) – JERSEY STAKES (GROUP 3) 7f (21 ran)
Whether you won a packet or did your nuts in at last week’s Royal Ascot meeting it is still well worth reviewing a number of the races in search of future winners and value betting propositions. Over on my Blog – Badly Drawn Horse – I specialise in analysing straight tracks races and looking for horses that ran well, without winning, from a poor draw. This method often uncovers horses that are overlooked by the generally betting public and as such often go off at healthy odds when they next appear on the track.
Ascot provided me with plenty of big field/straight track action to pick through and today I’m going to exclusively share with you my review of the 7 furlong Jersey Stakes.
Race in focus: 2.30 Ascot (19-06-2013): Jersey Stakes – 7f, Group 3 (21 ran)
How the race played out…
There wasn’t a massive pace advantage for one side over the other here although the high stalls split into a group of 7 and did race a bit apart from the others for a chunk of the contest. They did have their own front runner in Blaine, however, most of the pace was happening down in the middle to low part of the draw and the front 2 did have a bit of a break on the others at the line. It was a slight advantage to be drawn low to middle so anything running well from up high has to be respected.
The end result…
The winner, and favourite, GALE FORCE TEN was right on the pace for most of the contest and was ideally placed to strike. He had to dig in deep to repel the runner up though and this was a classy effort. Runner-up MONTIRIDGE was well positioned behind the winner for most of the contest although he had to make a late switch to get some racing room in the final furlong. The pace played to his hands, however, and in the end was just beaten by a better horse on the day. Third placed TAWHID had the toughest draw of all from stall 21 and he spent a lot of the race away from the pace. He made a surging run at the 1f marker but drifted left late on and ultimately paid for being on the wrong side, on ground he wouldn’t have appreciated and having to carry a penalty; all in all it was a very eye-catching run. Fourth placed GARSWOOD ran well enough, he had a good draw and that certainly aided him, the feeling is, however, this may just be his limit. Sixth placed MUSIC MAKER was also done little favours by the draw and also by Tawhid running across him in the closing stages. I would happily mark his run up a couple of lbs for this and he should have more to offer in the right grade.
Badly Drawn Horse(s) to follow…
TAWHID (3rd) (S Bin Suroor)
All things considered this was an impressive performance from the 3yo. He had the worst of the draw from the highest stall (21) and didn’t really have anyone to give him a lead into the race.
There were 2 other factors that marked this run out as eye-catching for me…
1) He was giving weight away to most of the field through the penalty he had to carry.
2) He has proven in the past that he is unsuited by Good to Firm underfoot conditions.
The fact he finished as close to the front 2 from a poor draw and carrying more weight than them tells me he deserves plenty of credit for this run, especially as the front 2 look like potentially very good horses.
On the ground front his form tells us that he is much more at home on ground with a bit of cut in it…
Form on Good To Firm ground – 043
Form on Good – N/A
Form on Good to soft or worse – 2113
There must also be a train of thought that suggests the reason for him drifting markedly left in the closing stages was due to him not enjoying the Good to Firm underfoot conditions.
I’m of the opinion punters will be put off by his wayward path late on and as such may be overlooked in the market in the future.
Conditions – The most important condition for this 3yo looks to be getting a bit of juice in the ground so we should be looking to back him when he is running on Good to Soft or worse underfoot conditions. He is more than capable at 8 furlongs but 7 furlongs is potentially his optimum although for now I would remain flexible with this angle.
TAWHID now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.
If you want more of this type of analysis then please visit my Blog over at Badly Drawn Horse. You can also download various free guides and mini-angles by visiting my other site – Narrowing The Field.