Betalay System Review

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Betalay System

Betalay System

I’ve got a copy of the Betalay system for review and I propose to test it live over the next 45 racing days. I’ll post here every day the previous day’s results and the running profit or loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP (after deduction of 5% Betfair commission).Betalay is a laying system, applying to races in Great Britain only. It’s a very simple system – you lay horses using a simple criterion based on rank in the betting market in races that meet the qualifying criterion. It is applicable to all types of race under Flat and NH rules. There is an upper odds limit, above which you do not bet, which is a sensible precaution in any laying system and limits the amount you can lose on a single bet.

You place the bet no earlier than 30 seconds before the start, to be sure the horse you’re backing meets the system criteria at the off (or, at least, very close to the off). This means either that you must be available to  monitor live prices and place bets manually or that you use a betting bot (automated betting software) to place the bets automatically.

The Betalay system costs £27 and comes in the form of an ebook that explains how to operate the system. As an ebook, of course, the system offers no possibility of a free trial or a guarantee of money back if not satisfied – the ebook describes the system and once you’ve seen it you know the system.

The ebook is eight pages long and very clearly describes the system and how to operate it. It also recommends a particular automated betting software package, should you wish to automate your use of the system. There is also a link to download Betalay’s own configuration settings for the software.

One substantial caveat at this stage: the Betalay website provides results for the system since the year 2000.  Unfortunately, these results are completely misleading, on two counts

  • They are based on laying at SP which makes no sense as lay odds available on Betfair and the other exchanges are almost always considerably higher than the odds available from the regular bookies, on which the standard SP is based. My own research shows that, for the range of prices covered in Betalay’s historical results, Betfair SP odds are, on average, almost 16.5% higher than standard SP. The effect of this is that losing bets would, in reality, have lost more than quoted in Betalay’s results history and thus the profits quoted are considerably overstated.
  • The results do not take exchange commission into account. Since the betting public can only place lay bets using Betfair or the other exchanges and since these exchanges charge typically 5% on all winning bets, this means that, again, the profits quoted in Betalay’s historical results are greatly overstated.

These are fundamental errors in calculating returns on any laying system and it is surprising and disturbing that Betalay would overlook them in presenting their claimed historical results.

Betalay Results from the first day (Monday 6th December):

We’re off to a poor start as the £95 earned from ten losers (10 x £10 less 5% commission) was more than reversed by two winners at Betfair SPs of 5.8 and 8.68 costing us £124.80.

Bets: 12

Winning bets: 10

Losing bets: 2

Profit / Loss: -£29.80  (to £10 stakes).

——————–

On Day 2, Betalay Tuesday 7th December 2010,  of the live test of the Betalay System we had six bets and six wins.

Totals to date:
Bets: 18
Winning bets: 16
Losing bets: 2
Profit: £27.20 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

On day 3, Betalay Wednesday 8th December 2010, The Betalay System delivered a profit of £47.50 on the day, with five wins from five bets on the (almost) All-Weather at Lingfield and Kempton.

Results to date:
Bets: 23
Winning bets: 21
Losing bets: 2
Profit: £74.70 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 4, Betalay Thursday 9th December – six bets, five wins. The loss was Better Self winning at 6.4, costing us £54 and giving a loss for the day of £6.50.

Results to date:
Bets: 29
Winning bets: 26
Losing bets: 3
Profit: £68.20 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 5, Betalay Friday 10th December – eight wins out of eight bets, winning us €76 on the day. The upper price limit was our friend today; without it, big price winners L’Accordioniste and Lush Life would have been qualifiers and the losses would have sent our bank into the red.

Results to date:
Bets: 37
Winning bets: 34
Losing bets: 3
Profit: £144.20 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 6, Betalay Saturday 11th December – twelve wins from thirteen bets, for a profit on the day of £54.90.

Results to date:
Bets: 50
Winning bets: 46
Losing bets: 4
Profit: £199.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 7, Betalay Sunday 12th December – four out of four at Southwell today, winning £38.00.

Results to date:
Bets: 54
Winning bets: 50
Losing bets: 4
Profit: £237.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 8, Betalay Monday 13th December – all ten selections today were winning bets. Our bank is now up
to £332.10. That’s a profit of 33 points in 8 days, with a strike rate of 93.8% and a return on
investment of 8.5%, in terms of the total amount risked (each lay bet carries a potential loss
of £10 multiplied by the odds).

We’ve had only four losing bets in 64 bets. Normal probablility would have predicted about nine losses
over 64 bets at the average odds laid to date, but there’s no reason
to get carried away. This is still a
very small statistical sample. If we have a system that’s genuinely beating the statistical odds, this
will show over the long term. Since each bet delivers a maximum profit of £9.50 but risks a potential
loss of up to £80, it’s easy to see that a few losing bets can very quickly make a large hole in our
betting bank.

Nevertheless, so far, so good.

Results to date:

Bets: 64
Winning bets: 60
Losing bets: 4
Profit: £332.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 9, Betalay Tuesday 14th December – the winning run couldn’t last forever and today four winners at
Betfair prices of 8.75, 6.37, 6.8 and 7.0 cost us almost £250 between them. We got some of it
back from the fifteen winning bets out of our total of nineteen, but we ended up losing £106.70
out of our bank today.

Results to date:

Bets: 83
Winning bets: 75
Losing bets: 8
Profit: £225.40 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 10, Betalay Wednesday 15th December – sixteen wins from seventeen bets today, recouping our
losses of yesterday with a day profit of £109.

Results to date:

Bets: 100
Winning bets: 91
Losing bets: 9
Profit: £334.40 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 11, Betalay Thursday 16th December – fifteen wins out of sixteen today over four meetings. Profit for
the day was £70.50 and our bank has now gone over £400.

Results to date:

Bets: 116
Winning bets: 106
Losing bets: 10
Profit: £404.90 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 12, Betalay Friday 17th December. Our 90%-plus strike rate plummeted today with two losses from
our five bets. We lost £89.50 on the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 121
Winning bets: 109
Losing bets: 12
Profit: £315.40 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 13, Betalay Saturday 18th December. Only one bet on today’s curtailed programme. Thunderball
lost at Southwell, delivering a small profit of £9.50.

Results to date:

Bets: 122
Winning bets: 110
Losing bets: 12
Profit: £324.90 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 14, Betalay Tuesday 21st December. (No racing on Sunday or Monday). Seven winning bets out of eight
but the one that won at 8.0 put us £3.50 in the red for the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 130
Winning bets: 117
Losing bets: 13
Profit: £321.40 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 15, Betalay Wednesday 22nd December. Two losing bets out of twelve cost our bank £23 on the day. No
more racing now until the 26th. Have a good Christmas!

Results to date:

Bets: 142
Winning bets: 127
Losing bets: 15
Profit: £298.40 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 16, Betalay Monday 27th December. One losing bet out of our four left us £23.50 down on the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 146
Winning bets: 130
Losing bets: 16
Profit: £274.90 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 17, Betalay Tuesday 28th December. Ten winning lays out of twelve, but a loss of £61.30 on the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 158
Winning bets: 140
Losing bets: 18
Profit: £213.60 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 18, Betalay Wednesday 29th December. Three of our thirteen lays won, depleting the bank by £83.40.
Five losing days in a row now and our bank has lost almost £275 from its high of nearly £405.

Results to date:

Bets: 171
Winning bets: 150
Losing bets: 21
Profit: £130.20 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 19, Betalay Thursday 30th December. Twelve wins out of thirteen saw a return to profitable betting
and we won £42.

Results to date:

Bets: 184
Winning bets: 162
Losing bets: 22
Profit: £172.20 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 20, Betalay Friday 31st December. Well, the Betalay ship was blown onto the rocks today by a
New Year’s Eve storm of winners that plunged our bank deep into the red. (Sorry about that attempt
at a metaphor – nearly as awful as the day’s betting.) We had 17 lays, of which six won at Betfair
prices ranging from 6.4 to 8.6, costing us a thumping £301.50 on the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 201
Winning bets: 173
Losing bets: 28
Loss: £129.30 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 21, Betalay Saturday 1st January. The rollercoaster that is the Betalay system careers on and all twelve
lays today were winning bets, returning a profit of £114 and restoring our overall return to near break-even.

Results to date:

Bets: 213
Winning bets: 185
Losing bets: 28
Loss: £15.30 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 22, Betalay Sunday 2nd January – eleven winning bets out of thirteen and a loss of £26.70.

Results to date:

Bets: 226
Winning bets: 196
Losing bets: 30
Loss: £42.00 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 23, Betalay Monday 3rd January – another slight loss today of £22.10 as two of our eleven lays won.

Results to date:

Bets: 237
Winning bets: 205
Losing bets: 32
Loss: £64.10 (to £10 stakes)

At approximately halfway through our 45-day trial we have 205 winning bets from 237, a Strike Rate of 86.5%. This is pretty much precisely the statistically predicted strike rate at the average odds at which we have laid (7.29). So, while this is still a small statistical sample, it seems that to date the system is performing no better or worse than the statistically expected outcome.

 

This is borne out by our near break-even Return On Investment (ROI) figure. It is slightly negative, a loss of £64.10 on a total amount risked of £14,905 giving an ROI of -0.4%. This is in fact slightly better than we would expect from matching the predicted strike rate, which would normally return a bigger loss, when we factor in 5% commission on winning bets.

 

Our longest losing run so far was two; our bank reached a peak of £404.90 and a low of -£129.30; we’ve had eleven winning days and twelve losing days; our best day returned a profit of £114, while our worst saw a loss of £301.50.

Here’s the graph of cumulative profit/loss to date:

-——————–

Day 24, Betalay Tuesday 4th January. This was our second-worst day of the Betalay trial, with a loss of £154.70 – four losing bets from 16.

Results to date:

Bets: 253
Winning bets: 217
Losing bets: 36
Loss: £218.80 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 25, Betalay Wednesday 5th January – two losing bets out of our seven lays brought a loss of £78.50 on the day.

Results to date:

Bets: 260
Winning bets: 222
Losing bets: 38
Loss: £297.30 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Days 26 to 32, Thursday 6th January to Wednesday 12th January. – 53 wins out of 59 bets for a profit of £181.80.

Results to date:

Bets: 319
Winning bets: 275
Losing bets: 44
Loss: £181.80 (to £10 stakes)

——————–


Day 33, Betalay Thursday 13th January. A 100% return today on a big book of bets, with all seventeen selections delivering. We logged a profit of £161.50 and took our bank back to near break-even. We rode our luck a little bit, as two or three winners came within a smidgin of qualifying under the system rules. But they didn’t and that’s the nature of luck.

Results to date:

Bets: 336
Winning bets: 292
Losing bets: 44
Loss: £20.30 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 34, Betalay Friday 14th January. 15 winning bets from 18 and a loss of £17.60.

Results to date:

Bets: 354
Winning bets: 307
Losing bets: 47
Loss: £37.90 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 35, Betalay Saturday 15th January. A breakeven day – 16 bets, 14 wins and a loss of £0.70

Results to date:

Bets: 370
Winning bets: 321
Losing bets: 49
Loss: £38.60 (to £10 stakes)

 

——————–

Day 36, Betalay Sunday 16th January. Just four bets, all successful, for a profit of £38.

Results to date:

Bets: 374
Winning bets: 325
Losing bets: 49
Loss: £0.60 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 37, Betalay Monday 17th January. Four winning bets out of five and a loss of £3.

Results to date:

Bets: 379
Winning bets: 329
Losing bets: 50
Loss: £3.60 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 38, Betalay Tuesday 18th January. Eight winning bets out of nine and a profit of £20.20.

Results to date:

Bets: 388
Winning bets: 337
Losing bets: 51
Profit: £16.60 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 39, Betalay Wednesday 19th January. Eight out of nine again today, but this time we lost £9.50 on the day as the one winner went off at a fairly high price.

Results to date:

Bets: 397
Winning bets: 345
Losing bets: 52
Profit: £7.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 40, Betalay Thursday 20th January. Ten winning bets out of eleven and a profit of £43.

Results to date:

Bets: 408
Winning bets: 355
Losing bets: 53
Profit: £50.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 41, Betalay Friday 21st January. Two losing bets from our eight lays and a loss of £36.10.

Results to date:

Bets: 416
Winning bets: 361
Losing bets: 55
Profit: £14.00 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 42, Betalay Saturday 22nd January. Two losing bets out of twelve for a loss of £30.60.

Results to date:

Bets: 428
Winning bets: 371
Losing bets: 57
Loss: £16.60 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 43, Betalay Sunday 23rd January. Nine winning bets from ten and a profit of £34.70.

Results to date:

Bets: 438
Winning bets: 380
Losing bets: 58
Profit: £18.10 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

 Day 44, Monday 24th January. Two losses from six bets for a hefty loss of £100 on the day. Only one day to go in the Betalay trial.

Results to date:

Bets: 444
Winning bets: 384
Losing bets: 60
Loss: £81.90 (to £10 stakes)

——————–

Day 45, Tuesday 25th January.  Another loss on the final day of the trial, with two losing bets from nine for a loss of £67.60 on the day and a final accumulated loss of £149.50.

Bets: 453
Winning bets: 391
Losing bets: 62
Loss: £149.50 (to £10 stakes)

So we’ve reached the end of the 45-day Betalay system trial showing a loss of almost £150 or 15 points. 391 wins out of 453 bets represents a strike rate of 86.3%. The average odds at which we placed lay bets was decimal 7.3. As it happens, 86.3% is precisely the strike rate we would statistically expect over the long term when laying at 7.3. So I think we can say that our trial shows that the Betalay system performs no better or no worse than laying horses at random at around this price.

Of course, performing at the statistically predicted strike rate guarantees a loss when commission and market overround are factored in. The Betalay system, which comes in the form of an ebook at a price of £27 was easy enough to understand, interpret and use, though unless you are a full time punter you need a betting bot to automate selections and placing of bets as the selections are based on meeting the system criteria within 30 seconds of the scheduled race time.

There were an average of ten bets per day. The longest losing run was two.  The bank reached a high of £404.90 and a low of -£297.30. We had 21 winning days and 24 losing days; our best day returned a profit of £161.50, while our worst saw a loss of £301.50. Here’s the graph of the content of the betting bank over the period of the trial:

Betalaygraph

Overall, I didn’t see anything to suggest that the system can beat the statistical odds and there’s nothing in the logic of the system criteria, in the results obtained or indeed in historical results over years that indicates otherwise.

Finally, as I mentioned at the outset, the historical results quoted on the Betalay website are misleading as they do not take into account either Betfair commission or the markup on Betfair lay prices as compared to standard SP.

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Posted by on January 25, 2011. Filed under System Previews, System Reviews, System Tests. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

One Response to Betalay System Review

  1. Thanks for the review – good job

    Sort of confirmed what i suspected – be lucky to break even over time and why so many other punters have tried it, failed and put it the bin. Unless as you say there are extra filters added somewhere to give you that edge needed to be profitable longterm laying at betfair. Brody

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    Brody
    January 27, 2011 at 2:03 am

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