Cheltenham 2010: Supreme Novices Hurdle Preview

With the start of January, all roads lead to Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown. The first of these is also the foremost, and the annual battle between the horses and horsemen from east and west of the Irish Sea is awaited like no other in our fine sport.

The curtain raiser on Tuesday is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and this has been an Irish banker in recent seasons. In fact, in the last decade, excluding 2001 when foot and mouth forced the cancellation of the Cheltenham Festival, no fewer than seven of the nine winners have been trained from Ireland.

Using that as a baseline for trying to identify the most likely winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle this March, I uncovered some interesting stats and figures.

Before I go on, I want to discuss a certain horse of massive potential, by the name of Dunguib. He’s brilliant, without doubt, and laughed at his rivals in winning the Cheltenham Champion Bumper last season. But he’s a best priced 6/4, and as low as evens with Victor Chandler, and that’s no price to be backing an ante-post selection, especially considering that the Irish winners are not usually the best fancied in the betting.

Let’s take a look at some data:

So, what can we see?

Well, firstly, the average win odds are just over 12/1. Lots of short priced horses have been seen off in recent seasons, including Cousin Vinny last season (at odds of 9/4 favourite).

Even if we take out the 40/1 shot Ebaziyan, and the 7/4 winner Like-A-Butterfly, average win odds are still a shade above 9.5/1. So taking somewhere between evens and 6/4 does not look a prudent strategy, when we can back something else each way and win more for finding a place.

Next, we note that only Like-A-Butterfly actually won a Grade 1 hurdle prior to the end of December in their Supreme Novices Hurdle-winning season. Interestingly (perhaps), two winners had recorded a runner-up finish.

Five of the seven Irish winners in the last decade were six years old. Again, Like-A-Butterfly bucked the trend when triumphing as a venerable eight year old. She is joined on the non-6yo list be the 2008 winner, Captain Cee Bee. But clearly six is the prime age. (The two UK-trained winners were both 5yo’s).

All nine winners in the last decade had previously won in a field of 14 or more, and it’s clear that experience of the hustle and bustle of a big field is imperative. Moreover, two thirds of them (6 of 9) had won in a field of 18 or more.

There have been six NH bred horses taste victory in the Supreme, against just three Flat-bred. Each of the three ex-Flat horses was high class, with the lowest rated having a most recent rating of 82 (Ebaziyan again).

One extremely noteworthy point is the performance of Champion Bumper runners. The Cheltenham Champion Bumper – the last race on the Festival card – was first run in 1992, and was won by Montelado. The following March, 1993, Montelado won the opening race, the Supreme Novices, making him the only horse to have ever won back-to-back Cheltenham races!

That’s an aside of course, and the point I want to make is that – apart from Montelado seventeen years ago – no Festival Bumper winner has won the Supreme.

Furthermore, only Back In Front in 2003 won the Supreme having even RUN in the Festival Bumper! This doesn’t bode at all well for Dunguib, Some Present and Rite Of Passage (first three home respectively in the Bumper last season). It also counts against 5th placed Morning Supreme, and 9th finisher, Pepe Simo. Cousin Vinny, last season’s 9/4 favourite, was the latest Bumper winner to try and fail to add the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following season.

Of the three key Grade 1 novice hurdles run so far in Ireland, the 1-2 finishers were thus:

OK, so that the stat attack. Now lets apply it to the main contenders this season, and see what emerges…

Taking them line by line, Dunguib is – as we’ve mentioned – a clear form pick. But he’s older than most, ran in (and won) the Champion Bumper, and also won a Grade 1 novice. I’m obviously not saying he can’t win; I’m not even saying he won’t win. Rather, I’m saying the stats point more clearly elsewhere, and so does the value (each way, at least).

Menorah is a UK-trained horse, and is excluded on that basis. So too are General Miller, Bellvano, Quantitativeeasing, Pepe Simo, Oscar Whisky, Washington Irving, Finians Rainbow, Salden Licht, Ghizao and Manyriverstocross. Phew! Again, I’m not saying one of these won’t win the race. Instead, I’m pointing out that generally there are this many UK-trained horses in the top end of the betting, and yet the winner comes from Ireland. For that reason, I’m scratching these runners.

This brings us to Rite Of Passage, a high class Flat runner, who also ran 3rd in the Bumper last season, and who – at the time of writing – has yet to jump a twig in public! He bolted up by eight lengths in a competitive flat race when last seen, and has almost certainly improved since last March. Moreover, Ebaziyan didn’t run until 21st January, so it’ll be very interesting to note when Rite Of Passage debuts over hurdles. That said, the other eight winners had experience in the book at this stage, and his appearance in the Cheltenham Bumper is also off-putting, so I’m still looking for my trends-based winner.

Next up in the betting lists is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Loosen My Load. Henry also has the Arkle favourite, Sizing Europe, and I give Loosen My Load a sound chance. He’s beaten every horse bar one that he’s raced against, and won in fields of 13, 17 and 18. He’s a 6yo with a Grade 2 win in the bag (at Cheltenham, no less), and looks overpriced to me, at around 25/1.

We then come to Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner, Hollo Ladies, who saw off Saludos to record that victory. I like the look of both of these horses, as unexposed types capable of improvement. However, Hollo is a 5yo, and may just fail to confirm placing with Saludos, who was only beaten a neck and was finishing like a rocket. The faster pace which is certain in the Supreme Novices Hurdle will play to his strengths, and 33/1 looks a standout price.

So there you have it. On form, it’s difficult to look beyond Dunguib. But that’s been the case numerous times in recent seasons, when the formbook has been re-written come the final Cheltenham hill in March. With tickets at 25/1 and 33/1, we’ll at least have some each way vouchers to cling on to, even if Dunguib does prove to be everything he’s looked to be thus far.

Most Likely Winner: Dunguib (6/4, no bet)

Best Each Way (nap): Loosen My Load (25/1, vcbet, Stan James, Coral, William Hill)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Saludos (33/1, Boylesports)

Who do you like best in the Supreme Novices Hurdle? Leave a comment below, and let us know…

Posted by Matt on January 3, 2010. Filed under Race Previews. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry