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Cheltenham Festival – The Irish Scene…
Festival trials are pretty much coming to an end now, and aside from the novices many of the Irish contenders have now had their final preparations. The 26 races staged between the 16th and 20th March aren’t traditionally races for favourites – a huge 77% of them have been beaten since 2002. In addition, the stats don’t bode well for those priced 4/1 or less…
Of the 99 horses to be sent off at an SP of 4/1 or shorter since 2006, a huge 76 of them have been beaten. These included Binocular, L’Ami, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss last year – all of which were considered to be so-called “bankers”. In this article we’re going to take a look at some of the hottest betting prospects with just under five weeks to go…
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Dunguib
If there’s anything this horse isn’t at this stage it’s a Champion Hurdler. He isn’t the most fluent jumper of fences, but what he lacks in the jumping department he more than makes up for with this skill and ability to travel supremely well through a race. He’s already proven at Cheltenham and remains unbeaten over hurdles after a superb victory in the Deloitte today. He’s absolutely no price at a best price of evens, but in all honesty I can’t see him being beaten at all…
30 of the last 35 winners of this race were aged five or six, whereas Dunguib is seven. I don’t see it as a negative as he has more experience and maturity than some of his opponents. The fact that jockeys are more eager to win races at the Festival normally results in a frantic gallop and tendency to “go for home” much earlier than usual. This means Dunguib’s proven ability to cope with the undulations and stay 2m2f in heavy ground should stand him in good stead.
RSA Chase – Punchestowns
Punchestowns is a general 3/1 shot for the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase after his thoroughly impressive victory in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase this weekend. We don’t know much about him at this stage, but he was a high-class hurdler and has jumped well on the whole in two appearances to date.
Nicky Henderson has expressed his concerns about getting a run into the horse, as he is a large individual and really needs a lot of work. He missed a fence down the back straight at Sandown last time out, but recovered well to win going away at the finish after being fifteen lengths down with three to jump. He showed tremendous battling qualities and tenacity to win the way he did, and certainly looks like he’d appreciate the step back up to three miles plus.
His main market rivals at this stage are stablemate Long Run and Nick Williams-trained Diamond Harry. Long Run looked a potential superstar when landing the Feltham at Kempton in December. It was a fast pace that day which suited this horse, and subsequent winner Tazbar was the only one who could race with him upon leaving the back straight.
Nevertheless, he proved no match for Long Run who cruised away from the second last in the hands of Sam Waley-Cohen for an easy win. The doubt with him is whether he’ll be able to get into a rhythm in order to jump well over three miles round Cheltenham, and there are also question marks about him staying the trip. His trainer has expressed his concerns, and it might prove best to either go for the Arkle or wait for Aintree.
Pandorama is the main Irish contender, and looks set to run a big race if he takes to the undulations of the course. He’s unbeaten in three over fences having already won the Drinmore and Knight Frank novice chases. Whether he’ll stay a very testing 3m1f remains to be seen, and with that said probably has a lot to do to compete with the English-trained runners.
At this stage Punchestowns doesn’t necessarily look a strong favourite. Diamond Harry looked a potential superstar when hammering Knockara Beau at Haydock last time out and Weird Al is another who will probably appreciate the longer trip and both have previous course form to their name. In order to be considered a serious bet though, we’d have to see Diamond Harry run again.
Ryanair Chase – Poquelin
This year’s renewal of the Ryanair Chase looks wide-open and you’d have to say Poquelin is there to be shot at. He’s yet to compete in a top-class chase, and was beaten comfortably by Tranquil Sea on his second start this season. The race he won subsequently didn’t look quite as competitive, and albeit the Nicholls horse does look to be improving Tranquil Sea does look a decent price to frank the form off level weights.
Barbers Shop looks a cut below the absolute top-level when competing at three miles, and this testing 2m5f trip has twice seen him finish a close second. He has to be a serious contender with Imperial Commander more likely to go for the Gold Cup, and shouldn’t be discounted. Voy Por Ustedes looks as though his best days are long gone, but this race could be set up for either Joncol or Schindlers Hunt.
2m5f round here is more like three miles these days, and that looks as though it’ll suit Joncol ideally. Last seen when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier this afternoon, he displayed some real battling qualities to prevail from Cooldine and looks likely to reverse the form with Tranquil Sea for a one length beating now he’s 10lbs better off. Chapoturgeon is another “live” contender and Schindlers Hunt would have to improve but stands a decent chance on his 3rd place finish in this race last season.
Conclusion
The Cheltenham Festival is an ideal race for layers, and regularly sees a number of horses considered to be “bankers” get beaten decisively. With Irish-trainer runners winning seven of the last nine renewals of the opener, Dunguib looks the most likely short-priced winner at this stage although his price isn’t very attractive.
A better strategy might be to simply lay all runners priced 4/1 or less, which would have proved more than profitable for the past four years. These are the biggest races of the National Hunt season, and it’s important to remember that short prices are not synonymous with certainties.
Connor Gallagher is a professional horse racing bettor and form analyst. If you’d like to learn how to bet methodically and discover how to win consistently, then I highly recommend you read the articles on his blog and sign-up for his weekly tips and advice bulletin by going to: http://www.horseracingbulletin.com/
Posted by Connor
on February 7, 2010. Filed under Connor's Column.
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