Connor’s Cheltenham Ante-Post Quartet
Connor Gallagher is a horse racing bettor, form enthusiast and stats analyst. He currently offers a free weekly e-letter providing in-depth analysis of big races, and detailing profitable betting trends. You can sign-up for free here.
Introduction
Welcome to your exclusive Cheltenham Festival betting guide, and congratulations for taking action and getting involved. For you and I, valued subscriber, the action starts right here. Sure, we might be the best part of three weeks away yet, but there really is no shortage of top-class action, and it’s worth putting in the necessary preparation now so that we’re ready to go come March 16th.
Prestbury Park is a course that demands so much of a horse; it really is the ultimate test of stamina, speed and jumping ability. The undulations and stiff climb to the finish make this one of the toughest tracks in the country, and with every horse at its peak you really do have to be at the top of your game here. It’s the meeting at which Champions are crowned, and much more regularly, the scene where dreams the size of Texas crash and burn.
In this guide we’re going to be looking at some basic principles when it comes to betting, and I’m also going to delve into some of the form lines themselves and attempt to unearth a few decent ante-post opportunities. This isn’t part of the actual four-day service itself – but is present merely as a guide for those who like to secure some ante-post value before the big day.
What we already know…
On Thursday I talked about the poor records of short-priced runners at the Festival. Nevertheless, you can guarantee that every year a specific group of horses will capture the attention of the racing media. This is usually the result of a recent eye-catching performance or overly bullish reputation and leads to a massive reduction in the price of such animals. At the end of the day, the media need stories to survive, and that’s why it’s vitally important that you turn a blind eye (or ear) to everything you’ll read in the Racing Post over the forthcoming weeks.
It also means we have a prime opportunity for laying on the exchanges, or opposing short-priced runners with each-way bets that represent “value.”
Over the past four years there have been 99 horses sent of at SPs of 4-1 or less at Cheltenham, of which just 23 have obliged. This means that – despite the exaggerated view of the market – a huge 3 in 4 of these favourites get turned over. On top of this, ignore the now infamous Irish gambles. Their will often be a large sum of money for a Willie Mullins horse in the Bumper, or heaps of cash for a horse of Tony Martin’s in the County Hurdle. In the majority of cases this is just the bookmakers making a situation out of nothing; in an attempt to cease the attention of inexperienced punters. They will very rarely win, and more often than not these so-called gambles only materialised because someone on the “dark side” caused a stir.
It really goes without saying that short-prices are no indication of a dead-cert. There’s no such thing at any level, and this is greatly enhanced in top-class fields such as at Cheltenham, when there are often any number of over-priced horses whose chances are underestimated. I’ll be doing my best to seek out those individuals, and keep you informed with regards to all the necessary information you need to make a tax-free profit.
What to look for in a winner
The single most important factor at Cheltenham – aside from being able to handle the undulations of the course itself – is jumping ability. Races are run at a frantic gallop around here, and maintaining momentum through hurdles and fences is key to winning.
In an ideal world, we’re looking for a horse suited to a fast pace, large field and testing track. The ability to handle faster ground is also a large plus, as the surface regularly ends up on the soft side of good. As a general rule, if you spot a short-priced horse that has been slogging around in the mud all winter, then you may have found yourself an ideal laying opportunity.
I very rarely bet a horse who hasn’t already demonstrated the stamina required to win over the distance of the race in question, and tend to side with those proven over further and in a large field. The fast gallop and eagerness to win means that the jockeys will often “go for home” much sooner than would ordinarily be the case, resulting in a tiring climb up to the finish.
Although many experts will jump to conclusions and suggest those racing from the rear of the field fair best of all, I tend to stick with horses who like to race in midfield. Unless proven over a longer trip, those who race prominently here regularly lack the stamina to win, whereas runners coming from the rear of the field will generally get too far back and find themselves with an excessive amount of ground to make up when push comes to shove.
Previous Cheltenham Festival form is also a key guide to factor in to your selection process. The occasion is so unique, that a shortcut to finding winners can be as simple as focussing on those who’ve won here in March before. This applies more to certain races, which we’ll talk more about in detail later…
Let’s pick some winners!
It’s time to get into form mode, and talk some specifics. In this guide I’m going to take a close look at the four Championship events: The Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle and Gold Cup…
Each is a main feature spread across the four days, and all have a hot favourite. Least of all is Solwhit in the Champion Hurdle, but Master Minded in the Champion Chase, Big Bucks in the World Hurdle and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup more than make up for him! They’re priced at 4-5, 4-7 and 4-6 respectively.
At first-glance each of them look to have solid chances, and in the words of a mug punter, would look to be “unbeatable.”
The problem is that absolutely anyone can open up the Daily Mirror and make those selections, without any form study or selection process whatsoever. In truth, these people probably stand a half-decent chance of being correct more times than not, and it’s extremely likely that at least one of these runners will do the business.
On the downside, the short-prices available mean that regardless of how many winners the inexperienced bettor might pick, he’s always going to struggle to return a profit. This is simply because the outlay required to win any significant amount of money greatly exceeds that of the returns a winner will generate.
I’m not here to help you stick a pin the race cards either. I’ve been working around the clock to identify some valuable betting opportunities – and pinpoint specific areas in which the wider public may have made a mistake, or failed to take into consideration an important fact. I’ll attempt to unearth some decent ante-post bets at prices that – given a bit of luck – will perform adequately enough to produce a long-term profit.
On that note, let’s get started…
Champion Hurdle Preview
Champion Hurdle – Tuesday, 16th March, 3.20pm – 2m110y
It remains to be seen how the ground will turn-up for day one, but I feel it will play an extremely important part in the outcome of the race.
To date, 5yos and those aged 10 or older have struggled, and ideally you’re looking for a runner aged 6, 7, or 8. This means we can comfortably rule out Zaynar, Starluck, Jumbo Rio, Ebadiyan, Sublimity and Al Eile. Interestingly, all of the last eleven winners of the race had ran within the previous 51 days, which means we also lose Go Native, Khyber Kim and Medermit.
It’s important to mention here that Medermit ran 52 days ago – I’ll leave it up to you as to whether you wish to be that harsh or not. From an ante-post perspective I doubt his price will be much shorter on the day anyway, so it might be worth leaving him well alone for now.
All of the last ten had finished in the first three last time out, and you need a horse with at least nine career starts over hurdles. This means that Celestial Halo is another we lose, along with Muirhead, Quevega and Raise Your Heart. Suddenly – after applying just a few of the trends – the majority of these have two or more question marks against their name.
I have this down to three – Won In The Dark, Solwhit and last year’s winner Punjabi. Previous Festival form is important and both Won In The Dark and Punjabi have it. Won In The Dark hasn’t once looked like he’s a classy enough individual to win this, though, whereas Solwhit is yet to race at the course but ticks most of the other boxes and has won two extremely important trials in his preparation for this.
My worry is taking such short odds about a horse that is unproven at the Festival. My doubt with Punjabi is the fact that he’s yet to win this season, but he’s entered at Kempton on the 27th and I would be extremely surprised – having looked at the race – were he to get beaten. He’s run well every time he’s competed at the Festival, and it will be interesting to see which horse Barry Geraghty goes for after Zaynar’s recent defeat at long odds-on.
Selection: Punjabi 11-1 (Each-Way)
Alternative: Solwhit 4-1
Champion Chase Preview
Champion Chase – Wednesday, 17th March, 3.20pm – 2m
Before we get into the preview, I’d just like to pay tribute to Paul Nicholls and his team down at Ditcheat. The patience, time and effort invested into getting Master Minded back to his brilliant best demonstrates exactly why he’s Champion trainer, and similarly why he’s dominated at the Festival over the past few years. Although I’m sure he isn’t going to provide me with a note of appreciation, with any luck he’ll be kind enough to produce a few winners for us…
Ten of the last eleven winners came from the first three in the betting and all returned at 5-1 or under. This trend looks, in all likelihood, as though it will probably continue this term as I honestly can’t see past Master Minded. Nevertheless, I do believe we can unearth an underestimated each-way alternative that is priced well enough to source a profit even with a place.
Eight of the last eleven winners had won a Grade 1 chase, and the last five British-trained winners were all rated 169 or above. On that basis I’m willing to rule out Kalahari King, which leaves Twist Magic as the only serious British contender aside from the reigning champ. Given his awful record left-handed – and particularly at Cheltenham – I’m ruling him out too.
Winning form over 2m1½f or further is also important, which indicates just how important stamina is in this event. I’ve already made an each-way case for Oh Crick on my blog, but he was unplaced last time and I don’t think he’s anywhere near good enough to win this now. In my opinion, this is a race between Big Zeb, Forpadydeplasterer and Master Minded.
Master Minded will probably win but is far too short, whereas Big Zeb fell in this last year and is yet to prove he can jump efficiently at speed. If he gets round then I think he’s the only horse to touch the favourite, but given the great record of Arkle winners I think it’s hard to ignore Forpadydeplasterer. This is a tough race and he looks a strong each-way selection at this moment in time. The fact his trainer has been making strange comments about his well-being leads me to the conclusion that connections may be trying to get a better price about him.
Selection: Forpadydeplasterer 14-1 (Each-Way)
Alternative: Big Zeb 8-1
World Hurdle Preview
World Hurdle – Thursday, 18th March, 3.20pm – 3m
The first statistic to take note of is that no 5 year-old has ever won the World Hurdle. This is obviously bad news for any supporters of Mr Thriller, Mourad, Jumbo Rio and Ebadiyan. Those older than ten also fair poorly, albeit Ballyfitz, Gone To Lunch and Powerstation look as though they have it all to do anyway. Ignore Irish-trained runners too; they haven’t had a winner in this race for 14 years!
Recent renewals have been dominated by horses at the head of the betting – the last nine winners returned at an SP of 8-1 or shorter. You’re looking for a distance winner that’s already proven its ability at graded level, who finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Already I’m able to narrow this down to Big Bucks, Karabak and Tidal Bay.
To be honest I don’t think Big Bucks is a strong favourite here – had he come up against the likes of Baracouda and Inglis Drever when both were at their peak, he’d have been destroyed. Both Karabak and Tidal Bay are worthy contenders open to plenty of improvement, and I wouldn’t rule Sentry Duty, Time For Rupert or even Cape Tribulation out of things either.
Six of the last eighteen winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, and given Howard Johnson’s previous record in the race (three time winner with Inglis Drever) I find it hard to believe that Tidal Bay would be in here unless he had a serious chance. If Big Bucks is going to get beaten – which I believe he will – then I think it’s highly likely to be by one of those directly behind him in the market. Karabak is the one that looks sure to improve again, but Tidal Bay is entitled to come on for his win in the Cleeve too – he’s won at the Festival before and is narrowly preferred at the odds.
Selection: Tidal Bay 8-1 (Each-Way)
Alternative: Karabak 6-1
Gold Cup Preview
Gold Cup – Friday, March 19th, 3.20pm – 3m2f
It’s Kauto Star vs Denman round three, and the betting public yet again rate Kauto as an odds-on chance to confirm his superiority over his stable mate. For me, Kauto Star is one of the best racehorses ever to have set foot on a track, and I will be extremely surprised should Denman or indeed any of the others come home within ten lengths of him. As you can probably tell I’m a raging fan, and so it should be noted that I’m extremely biased.
On the other hand, I’m going to ignore the first two in the market as they both have significant question marks with regards to the numbers. First of all no horse is worthy of 4-5 favouritism in a Gold Cup – I genuinely don’t care how good Kauto is or how much affection I have for him. Him and Denman aside, we’re concentrating on horses aged between six and nine, who have already won a grade one chase and were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out. Albertas Run, Cooldine, Imperial Commander, Taranis and What A Friend fit the bill.
Imperial Commander doesn’t stay three miles. His form figures when he’s been tried at 3m+ read a disappointing 6346P25, and with the Gold Cup more like three and a half miles these days I genuinely don’t think he has a chance of living with this lot. His trainer made a ridiculous comment stating that he would have won the Betfair Chase were it over an additional two furlongs, and yet it is evident through Kauto Star’s previous victories, that the further they go the better he is. It was a poor renewal of the RSA chase that Albertas Run won, and he’s gradually gone downhill since. In all reality it’s hard to see him faring any better than he did last year, and is ruled-out also.
Ten of the last eleven winners had won or placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival, and all eleven had run 2-5 times in the current season. Taranis probably lacks the ideal balance of speed and stamina required to win this, and was receiving lumps of weight from the main protagonists when he romped home in the Argento Chase. He’d need to have come on heaps and bounds since then, and in this field, I think he’ll struggle.
I have a shortlist of three lively outsiders then, consisting of Cooldine, What A Friend and Tricky Trickster. What A Friend is still unexposed, and has plenty of improvement left in him. I think he’s probably a little inexperienced for this race at the moment though, and will have to improve markedly if he’s to reverse form with Denman and beat the favourite. Cooldine will come on for his run in the Irish Hennessy, but Joncol held up the form from What A Friend’s Lexus Chase victory and at the prices he’s far more appealing.
Overall I rate Tricky Trickster as an outstanding each-way bet, and have backed him ante-post at 33-1. He lacks a grade one victory to his name, but is yet to finish out of the first two, is improving, unexposed and has won here at the Festival before. Regardless of whether Denman had stayed on his feet last time I think this horse would have still won, and an extra 2½f looks set to suit him down to the ground. He demonstrated the speed to win a decent race over three miles that day, but has also shown he could probably win a Grand National and in all honesty I see no reason why he can’t win!
At 14s Cooldine would be the alternative, with What A Friend looking set to play his part also. Denman will be spot-on for the day and shouldn’t be ruled out at 7-2, but I think he’s looking a little inconsistent now. I still don’t think he’s value at his current odds, and rate the best overall bet – ante-post or on the day – as Tricky Trickster at a huge 33-1 with William Hill.
Selection: Tricky Trickster 33-1 (Each-Way)
Alternative: Cooldine 14-1
Conclusion
I’m sure you’ll agree it’s a week of top-class racing, and one of the best for a good few years if you ask me. The majority of these races are absolutely wide-open, and that’s why I’m urging you to stay away from short-priced favourites, and those who appear to unbeatable. Among those beaten under similar circumstances last season were Binocular, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss – who were all thought to be so-called “bankers” in the lead up to their respective races.
I wish you the best of luck with your betting at the Cheltenham Festival this year, and thank you once again for signing-up. It’s great to have you on board, and with a little help from lady luck we’ll make a very healthy profit next month.
All the best,
Connor Gallagher
Editor – Horse Racing Bulletin
