Aug 03

Daily analysis and Nursery service – Friday 3rd

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 3

Seven year corresponding stats for day four of the meeting:

49 races – 51 winners via 2 dead heats – 16 winning favourites – 41/51 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—‘Team Hannon’ (four for Richard junior at 9/2, 7/2**, 15/8* & 2/5*) – 5 runners today

 

  • Corresponding stats for Newmarket for Newmarket this evening can be found below Goodwood’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service which produced a 5/1 winner and a placed horse at 14/1 yesterday….

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst securing 15 of the last 30 available Placepot positions. With Sir Michael Stoute on a hat trick in the contest, four-year-old Mirage Dancer is the call with the trainer definitely holding a chance of landing a first and last race double on the card.  Second Step could snare the runner up position for the second consecutive time in the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst 13 of the 23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Mirage Dancer 

 

2.25: Charlie Appleby’s Glorious Journey looks a tad big at 15/2 in a few places at the time of writing, though I’m adding William Buick’s mount into the equation purely from a value for money perspective in this ‘short field’ contest. Despite the lack of numbers, too many of the other runners have opportunities to snare this prize to take the race too seriously.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Minimum each way option: Glorious Journey

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last six winners of the contest when represented and it’s interesting to note that ‘Frankie’ has been booked to ride Poet’s Society here with an each way chance, especially as an uncontested lead could be on the cards.  It might prove best to wait until finding out if that scenario unfolds before placing a bet.  Fire Brigade is another win and place call to consider, possibly alongside Borderforce and last year’s winner Master The World.  I have run out of patience with South Seas, whereby now might be the right time for you to wade into Andrew Balding’s frustrating (though talented) inmate.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 21 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

3.35: Battaash boasts obvious claims to follow up his victory in the race last year, though regular readers will be aware that I tend to sidestep these ‘superior’ sprint races given that the form book flies out of the window all too frequently.  Media types hail these “superstars” far too often and the truth of the matter is that there have been no great sprinters for several years now, none that totally dominate the sector at any rate.  Sioux Nation might be the latest ‘party-pooper’, though speculative investors could do worse that to consider the win and place claims of Michael Bell’s dark horse Main Desire, whilst Havana Grey is expected to run his race.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 21 years, whilst twelve market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.10: The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. Charlie Appleby appears to have found a fine opportunity for Leading Spirit in order to maintain his perfect (1/1) start in the Nursery sector this season.  Well in here by some ten pounds according to the official assessor, William Buick’s mount might only need to be steered in the right direction to score, though we have heard such comments once or twice before!  If you generally oppose 6/4 chances in such big fields, I guess there are worse each way options that Tin Hat (despite hailing from the wrong end of the handicap) and Swiss Cross at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively at the time of writing.  The chance of Jungle Inthebungle is not entirely written off either; despite the general 25/1 quote.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the last 21 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 18 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1–20/1–20/1–16/1–12/1–10/1–10/1.

 

4.40: Three-year-olds have won 15 of the last 21 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall.  French raiders have snared the last three renewals which is an obvious pointer towards the chance of Sequilla.  Mick Channon is running his horses sparingly at Goodwood this week despite saddling a winner already whereby I’ll take a chance that Dan’s Dream can revert to winning ways at a decent price this afternoon, for all that the Sequilla might prove difficult to beat.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst 13 of the 21 market leaders throughout the study period claimed Placepot positions.

Each way selection: Dan’s Dream

 

5.15: Slightly upped in trip here by trainer Tom Dascombe, Epaulement has been supported on the exchanges overnight and it is not difficult to see why.  Two fine efforts at Haydock of late have been recorded whereby the 11/1 general quote is worth a nibble, or perhaps even more if the day has treated you well before Goodwood’s finale.  Others to consider include Baritone and Howman.  Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider could be a blot on the handicap at the price I guess though at the odds on offer, Epaulement is the win and place call.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won three of the last seven renewals during which time, six of the seven winners were returned at a top price of 4/1.  The three previous scorers however were sent off at 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1.

Each way selection: Epaulement

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for Newmarket this evening:

34 races – 13 winning favourites – 31/34 winners scored at a atop price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

A trio of trainers have saddled three winners, the pick of which is (arguably) Andrew Balding (10/1, 9/1 & 13/2) who has one runner on the card at 5.50, namely Pilgrim Soul.

 

Today’s Nursery races:

1.40 Thirsk:

Archie Watson gave us a nice (5/1) Nursery winner yesterday and the trainer attempts 3/3 stats in the sector this season with Investia.

Without getting too technical in this four runner event, Holy Doyle’s mount has New Winds to beat.

2.10 Thirsk:

Deviner deserves her place at the head of the market this morning and investors will know their fate early doors because she is likely to take these five rivals along and as long as she enjoys a fairly comfortable lead up front, Mark Johnston can claim another Nursery success.

If you fancy taking the projected market leader on however, the 5/1 offer by Hills about Packington Lane looks plenty big enough from my viewpoint.

4.10 Goodwood:

Charlie Appleby appears to have found a fine opportunity for Leading Spirit in order to maintain his perfect (1/1) start in the Nursery sector this season.  Well in here by some ten pounds according to the official assessor, William Buick’s mount might only need to be steered in the right direction to score, though we have heard such comments once or twice before!

If you generally oppose 6/4 chances in such big fields, I guess there are worse each way options that Tin Hat and Swiss Cross at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively at the time of writing.

7.50 Musselburgh:

There was a time not so long ago that Brian Smart’s juveniles were feared at Musselburgh more than the sassenachs from far and near and certainly the 14/1 general quote about Tick Tock Croc catches the eye in a race which would otherwise create little interest from your truly.

That said, I’m not sure that Capitan James should be regarded as the rag in the field given that trainer can work miracles with his stock on occasions, whilst the relevant sire is Society Rock who has already claimed a two-year-old handicap winner this season.

 

Nursery stats this season (24 races – 186 runners – as of Friday morning – 3rd August):

Favourite stats (25):                     

13 winners – 3 placed – 9 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/4

Winning trainers:

3/13—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**)

2/2—Archie Watson (11/2 & 5/1)

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2)

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*)

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/2—Nigel Tinkler (7/2)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/6—David Evans (11/4*)

1/7—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/14—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/19—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3—Mark Johnston (4/7, 7/4 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Stats of first three in the betting:

72 relevant runners: 22 winners – 17 placed – 33 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

102 runners – 22 winners – 23 placed – 57 unplaced (54.8% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

84 runners – 2 winners – 9 placed – 73 unplaced (45.2% of total runners)

Weight2 – Aggreate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 15 winners – 16 placed – 58 unplaced (47.8% of runners)

8-13 or less: 9 winners – 16 placed – 72 unplaced (52.2% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

3 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Adrian Nicholls

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Bill Turner

0/2—Andrew Balding

0/2—Karl Burke

0/2—Tom Clover

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Roger Fell

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Brian Meehan

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/3—Ed Dunlop

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Tim Easterby

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Richard Hughes

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Mick Channon

0/8—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Slade Power

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

8 winners—February

7—April

6—March

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

2 wins – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins – Implicit (73 & 80)

1 win – Barend Boy (79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – More Than This (88)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Princess Power (63)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – Society Queen (76)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

1 win – (78) & 1 unplaced (85) – Revich

2 x Placed – Devils Roc (57 twice)

2 x Placed – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Greenback Boogie (78)

Placed – Gunforhire (64)

Placed – Hieronymus (78)

Placed – Kyroc (65)

Placed – Indian Viceroy (79)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – Que Amoro (79)

Placed – Requited (71)

Placed – Showu (71)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Wolf Hunter (64)

Placed – Xtara (78)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81) & Unplaced (79)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78) & Unplaced (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – Improvising (66) & Unplaced (67)

Placed – No Lippy (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – Two Blondes (73) & Unplaced (77)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Arishka (63)

Unplaced – Artair (83)

Unplaced – Artistic Rifles (75)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Barbegazi (57)

Unplaced – Barristan The Bold (82)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Bengali Spirit (73)

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capala (68)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Chonburi (71)

Unplaced – Clevedon (60)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Cupboard Love (88)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Deputise (85)

Unplaced – Dombra (80)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Even Keel (76)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Forseti (81)

Unplaced – Glorious Dave (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Knockabout Queen (71)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Li Kui (75)

Unplaced – Made In Lewisham (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – No More Regrets (84)

Unplaced – Not So Shy (68)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Phyllis (48)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Popping Corks (66)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Poy Luck (63)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Reddiac (71)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rock Party (63)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Shaybani (90)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – So Hi Sroem (66)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – St Ouen (69)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Swiss Peak (70)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Sybil Grans (60)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tinto (68)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Treasure Quest (74)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Water Diviner (82)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56 & 52)

2 x Unplaced – Be Proud (67) & (66)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Free Love (71 & 69)

2 x Unplaced – James Watt (86 & 88)

2 x Unplaced – Max Guevara (66) & (63)

2 x Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67) & (66)

2 x Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68 &72)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Staycation (75 & 74)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

3 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68, 70 & 71)

 

 

 

 

 

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