Jul 13

Daily analysis – Friday 13th

NEWMARKET – FRIDAY

  • Not forgetting three Nursery race today – the details of which follow the race by race analysis for Newmarket…..

1.50: I suggested last year that 33/1 placed horse Swift Approval was worth chancing from an each way perspective, with the Stuart Williams raider attempting to follow up his victory in the contest the previous year.  Sure enough, Stuart goes to the well again and there seems no logical reason why his six-year-old should not go very close to winning, especially with Silvestre De Sousa in the plate.  Plenty of bookmakers are offering 4/1 at the time of writing and though only seven runners face the starter, even money a place could be tempting plenty of you to back Stuart’s raider each way this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have won, though the other 11/4 market finished out with the washing.

Win selection: Swift Approval

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

2/3—Swift Approval (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Saluti (good to soft)

2/4—Maksab (2 x goof to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that Unibet should be swamped with interest in one (each way) horse this afternoon, if you take a look at the overnight activity information below. Indeed, Angels Hideaway would always have attracted my attention anyway but the odds in place demand serious win and place action from my viewpoint.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than Come On Leicester I’ll wager, though Gossamer Wings looks more of a threat from a win perspective with Aidan O’Brien chasing a hat trick in the contest this time around.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen favourites have won whilst 16/23 market leaders finished in the frame in the process.

Each way selection: Angels Hideaway

Overnight market activity:

Unibet look well over the top with their 7/1 quote about Frankie’s mount Angels Hideaway this morning…

 

3.00: Mark Johnston was denied a five-timer in the race last year whereby it would be unwise to put a line though his two 14/1 chances this morning over your favourite beverage. Indeed, the each way chances of both Communique and Poet’s Prince are respected, albeit my idea of the winner of this year’s renewal is Wissahickon who was the subject of exchange activity overnight.

Favourite factor: 11 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last eleven gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

Win selection: Wissahickon

Each Way savers: Your chosen Mark Johnston representive!

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Chief Ironside (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

I would be surprised if Wissahickon starts bigger than 11/4 today which was still available at the time of writing with Betfair & Paddy Power

 

3.35: Many people thought the victory of Alpha Centauri was the highlight of the week at Royal Ascot recently and it’s difficult to argue with that point of view.  Racegoers could have been forgiven if thinking that Jessica Harrington had slipped a colt into the fillies event by the way she won, notwithstanding her physique which impressed good judges in the parade ring prior to the contest. Clemmie’s course victory was gained in the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on this day last year and she looks to be the only danger to the selection.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Win selection: Alpha Centauri

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Clemmie (good to firm)

 

4.10: This is something of a guessing game in all honesty and at this time of day (before the whispers have started to gain momentum), I can merely offer the fact that the only horses for semi-serious money are Mount Tabora and Art Du Val at the time of writing.  Apologies for not being of any more use early doors….

Favourite factor: Nine clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  15/27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just ten Placepot positions via 127 representatives during the study period.

 

4.45: Alan King was sweet on the chance of Elgin when interviewed on the television yesterday and there seems no reason why the relevant connections should be disappointed in this grade/company.  Hamada is the obvious potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.

Record of the three course winners in the sixth contest:

1/1—Hochfield (good to firm)

1/2—Natural Scenery (good to firm)

2/3—Fire Jet (good & good to firm)

 

5.20: Corrosive ran well enough in the ‘Brittania’ at the royal meeting a few weeks back to suggest that a similar effort could be good enough to win today.  Ripp Orf is a typical David Elsworth raider who is difficult to ignore.  It’s also reasonable to suggest that investors in Vitamin will have plenty to shout about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Although three market leaders (one being a joint favourite) have won during the last decade, it’s only right to point out that six gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 7/1 and 50/1.

Win selection: Corrosive

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/2—Roll On Rory (good to firm)

2/3—Vitamin (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Plenty of racegoers will be latching onto Corrosive at 3/1 (generally available) this morning I’ll wager in the ‘getting out stakes’ in case luck has deserted them in the first six races on the card.  If I was going to Newmarket today, I would make that move a.s.a.p. to cover any losses at the track in earlier contests…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

2.50 Ascot: Even money (Bet365 & BetVictor) is not exactly a working man’s price but that said, a winner is a winner in any language and Semoum should oblige at what is likely to be an odds on price before too long this morning I’ll wager.  It’s worth noting however that only one of the two odds on favourites in Nursery races this season, whereby ‘sensible stakes’ should be the order of the day if you do fancy George Peckham’s impressive Ripon winner.  James Watt looks to be the main threat.

4.25 York: It’s a little surprising to find 7/4 (Paddy Power) offered about Eve Johnson Houghton’s hat trick seeker Oberyn Martell this morning, despite the fact that Danny Tudhope’s mount is asked to concede between 10 and 28 pounds away (via potential jockey claims) to six rivals, the pick of which is surely Kodyanna.

7.25 Chester: Five Helmets was one of two runners for Tom Dascombe in the first Nursery of the season at Haydock last week, a race the trainer had won the previous year.  Tom’s three penultimate stage entries for that race suggested that he held those inmates in reasonable regard in this sector of the sport and there was every indication that this seventh (additional) furlong was going to suit Richard Kingscote mount.  Richard Hannon’s Brighton winner Jaayiz would probably be improving at a fair rate of knots if he should be good enough to give the selection four pounds and a beating.

 

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

 

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