Jul 06

Daily analysis – Friday 6th



  • Early Nursery thoughts/stats regarding tomorrow’s two year old handicap event can be found at the foot of the column.


Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2016: 3/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 0/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 5/1 or less

2014: 2/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 7/1 or less


31 races – 9 winning favourites – 30/31 winners scored at a top price of 11/1


Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (9/2, 9/2, 9/4 & 10/11*) – 4 runners: Chapelli (1.50), Arctic Sound (2.25), Persian Moon (3.00) & King’s Proctor (4.05)


Leading represented trainers this season:

3/8—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Mustahry (3.30) & Melting Dew (4.05)

3/13—John Gosden (7/2, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Alrajaa (2.25) & King Of Comedy (3.00)

2/4—Alan King (5/1 & 13/8*) – 2 runners: Green Etoile (2.25) & Hummdinger (3.00)


1.20: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst 25 favourites (including joint and co market leaders) have gone to post in the last 21 years. Just three favourites have reached the frame during the period, with no winners having been recorded.  Adhering to the weight trends, I suggest that Jashma and Justice Lady represent a little value at the time of writing, though not enough for yours truly to get involved financially.

Favourite factor: Look in the analysis to reveal a true horror story in recent times.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Rio Rinaldo (good to firm)

1/1—Justice Ladfy (good)

1/5—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Jashma (good)


1.50: This is a trappy heat and no mistake but one of the few signals to take into account is the fact that Well Done Fox is being kept on the safe side by layers at the time of writing. Five of the last six winners have contested Royal Ascot‘s Norfolk Stakes on their previous starts but that startling ‘edge’ has been ignored my trainers this time around.  Mick Channon’s pair Bungleinthejungle and Barbill make as much appeal as any accordingly and given the 9/1 quote by Ladbrokes this morning, BARBILL is the tentative each way call.

Favourite factor: Just five of the last 25 favourites in this event have scored.

Each way selection: Barbill


2.25: Arctic Sound (sets the standard from my viewpoint) is as good a place to start as any I guess with Mark Johnston leading the way at Esher this season, though whether Mark’s Haydock runner up can fend off two likely looking newcomers in Line Of Duty and ALRAJAA is another thing entirely.  John Gosden said of the latter named Dubawi raider earlier in the season; “Looks the sort to run from July onward; carries himself well and has a nice way about him”

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished well down the pack.

Win selection: Alrajaa


3.00: Persian Moon looks a solid 3/1 type from my viewpoint, though John Gosden was equally impressed with KING OF COMEDY earlier in the year as his runner (Alrajaa) in the first heat of the this contest.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same single stat applies.

Win selection: King Of Comedy


3.30: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MUSTASHRY standing out of the three vintage representatives on this occasion. That said, Spark Plug has secured gold and silver medals via the last two renewals of the race and warrants an each way saver at 6/1 with two leading firms early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include five of the last nine winners.  The last 14 gold medallists have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Win selection: Mustashry

Each way option: Spark Plug

Record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Euginio (good to firm)

1/4—Spark Plug (Good to firm)

1/3—Connect (good to soft)


4.05: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst securing eight victories during the last thirteen years. Vintage representative BLUE LAUREATE caught the eye at 6/1 this morning, with connections possibly having most to fear from King’s Proctor and Melting Dew.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven contests have been claimed by market leaders of one description or another.

Each way selection: Blue Laureate

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event:

1/2—Pivoine (good to firm)

1/4—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)


4.40: Although freely available to back at 4/1 at the time of writing, it would come as no surprise to witness SAROOG attracting support with Ryan Moore booked to ride.  It came as something of a shock to the system to find no three-year-olds in the field, given their 5-4 lead over the four-year-olds in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Eight of the sixteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far, though just four market leaders have claimed the gold medal during the study period.  That said, 12 of the last 14 winners have scored at a top price of 6/1.

Win selection: Saroog

Record of the course winner in the seventh contest on the card:

2/4—Jacob Cats (2 x good to firm)


5.15: MICHELE STROGOFF might be a popular horse in the betting shops in and around the Esher area this morning I’ll wager as punters anticipate the chance of picking up any losses en route home after racing.  This is a ploy I used to adopt when going racing regularly as it is so easy to get swayed into backing another horse on course.  I used my strongest selection on a card as my banker knowing that if I did my cash at the track, I would be level on the day if the ‘nap’ obliged.  These days of course with ‘shops on site’ there is no reason to deviate from the route to the racecourse.  If I was going racing at Sandown today, my nap would be Michele Strogoff.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 joint favourite snared gold and bronze medals in a six runner race.

Win selection: Michele Strogoff

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/6—Biotic (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking ‘bundles of money’ in the dead of night for Michelle Strogoff though that said, I anticipate lots of support at around the 9/4 mark, quotes which are freely available at the time of writing – though for how long?


Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.


Nursery service – next race: Saturday – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Nursery stats this season (1 race):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weights carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

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