Jul 02

Daily Analysis – Monday 2nd

WINDSOR – JULY 2

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

2016: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/2 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 17/2 or less

2014: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 5/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 13 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—John Bridger (5/1, 5/1 & 11/4) – 1 runner tonight: Starchant (6.30

 

Leading represented trainer this season:

6/42—Richard Hannon (8/1 three times +5/1*, 3/1 & 4/9*) – 3 runners tonight: Time For Bed & Ginger Nut (6.30) & Topi (7.30)

 

For those that like to note interesting news on the trainer front in general terms:

Mark Johnston boasts a 5/15 record at Windsor this season (level stake profit of three points) but the trainer is not represented this evening, sending eight runners elsewhere, four at each of the meetings at Pontefract and Hamilton.

John Gosden is giving his runners a break until Wednesday (at the earliest) despite taking his seasonal stats at Windsor to 4/9 yesterday.

Michael Bell has saddled his last three runners to winning effect at 4/1, 11/4 & 15/8 – Michael has two declared at Chepstow tomorrow.

Jonathan Portman (two outsiders in the 6.00 at Windsor this evening) and Jonjo O’Neill (three potential runners at Stratford tomorrow) both boast recent ratios of 3/7.

Dan Skelton won with four of his six runners at Uttoxeter yesterday and goes in search of more swag at Stratford tomorrow – though the trainer is 0/13 there this season – time to break his duck you might think…..

 

Race by race analysis:

6.00: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last thIrteen renewals (vintage representatives are 1/2 to win before the form book is consulted on this occasion), though the top three in the market could all be given chances which swats yours truly to avoid the contest.  If the proverbial gun was put to my head to name the winner, I might opt for Pilgrim Soul against Cross My Mind and Sister Celine but is an in an hour or two, I might have changed my mind completely.  It’s that type of contest which Windsor seems to host on too many occasions for my liking.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date.

Overnight market activity:

Show Of force is attracting bits and pieces of interest at around the 16/1 mark.

 

6.30: ‘Team Hannon’ have won this event seven times in the last thirteen years (alongside various silver and bronze medallists), even though the trainer was not represented in the contest six years ago and again four years back.  Richard saddles Time For Bed and Ginger Nut in a bid to improve the record, though CHYNNA attracts the eye from Mick Channon’s yard with the trainer having stated that she is a “smashing filly” and being a late May foal, Chynna’s two outings should have set Charles Bishop’s mount up nicely here, with a ‘trap five’ draw aiding and abetting confidence.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen favourites have won to date, with three of the other market leaders finishing in the money.

Win selection: Chynna

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note.

 

7.00: Four-year-olds have claimed four of the last ten contests, with ALKASHAAF appearing to be the pick of the two relevant entries this time around.  Unfortunately, the More Than Ready gelding renews rivalry with Varsovian on the same terms as when beaten a length and a half the last day at Leicester.  That said, Dean Ivory’s runner is put in at 2/1 here against the each way odds of 10/1 about my tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites (via eleven renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include five (10/11—6/5–11/8–9/4** & 4/9) winners.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

2/3—Ballesteros (good to firm & soft)

2/9—Morache Music (good & soft)

1/7—Musical Comedy (good to soft)

Each way selection to small stakes: Alkashaaf

Overnight market activity:

Bookmakers are taking no chances with Especia at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.

 

7.30: DOUBLE UP runs off a two pound lower mark then when last successful in an A/W race at Kempton in November.  James Doyle boasts a 23% strike rate when riding for Roger Varian on turf down the years and it appears significant that this is his first ride for trainer on grass this term.  Ice Age is the obvious threat, especially at this venue given his track record which you can find below.

Favourite factor: Just two successful Market leaders to report during the last decade.

Win selection: Double Up

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

3/7—Ice Age (2 x good to soft & good to firm)

1/2—Human Nature (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

I wouldn’t expect the 7/2 quote about Double Up (available in two places at the time of writing) to be beaten later in the day.

 

8.00: There is no selection in this event as such, though I would suggest you take a look at the comment below in the overnight market activity sector.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have snared gold and silver medals to date.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Jus Pires (good)

Overnight market activity:

Never Surrender is the ‘unknown factor’ in this event, with the prices ranging between 4/1 and 7/1 in the dead of night.  I took the 7/1 from what looked a half decent quote, though those odds of not detracted at the time of writing.  Keep an eye on the market however as over twelve hours are left for the money to be put down, if that scenario evolves.

 

8.30: Any newcomer representing George Strawbridge (famous colour of white with a green hoop) saddled by Andrew Balding should be noted in dispatches irrespective of how the horse runs at the first time of asking.  Until Then is the relevant thoroughbred on this occasion, though on all known form, Humbolt Current should take the beating.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Win selection: Humbolt Current would become interesting if Until Then proves friendless in the market.

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note though support for Until Then during the day should be taken seriously.

 

9.00: Three-year-olds often wins these mixed vintage events (even in handicap form) and Al Ozzdi and Arendelle are expected to figure prominently at the business of proceedings.  That said, Jamie Spencer and Charlie Hills team up again in the last race on the card with TAI SING YEH who offers win and place appeal at the 10/1 on offer with two firms this morning.

Favourite factor: We have to go back six years to fin the only successful market leader during the last decade.  That said, eight of the ten winners were returned at a top price of 15/2.

Each way selection: Tai Sing Yeh

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/8—Harlequin Striker (soft)

1/1—Unsuspected Girl (soft)

Overnight market activity:

Nothing to to report as yet….

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

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