Sep 22

Daily analysis (Newbury analysis + Ayr stats and selections) – Saturday 22nd


1.15: Not a race to take a short price about a horse from my viewpoint and two outsiders that might reward minimum stake each way investors are named as Mardle (25/1 with Betfair) and Dargel (20/1 with Hills).

Favourite factor: Although four favourites have won via the last twelve renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.


1.45: David Egan has been earning lots of plaudits of late and his mount Mountain Angel would receive plenty of applause if successful this afternoon judged on the support overnight.  Berenger is my idea of the alternative each way option.

Favourite factor: Four joint/co favourites have won this event during the last eleven which given the competitive nature of the contest, is not a bad record at all. Indeed, the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 14/1, with three of the four 8/1 co market leaders finishing in the frame twelve months ago. Media types quote strange words about “outsiders” these days, with one famous broadcaster announcing that an 8/1 chance was an outsider the other day!  The top priced winner quoted above was one of 20 contenders on the day and unless a horse wins at 16/1 or more this afternoon, I would not call the relevant winner an outsider, even if the gold medallist scored at 14/1.  Only when a horse is returned at a price bigger than the ‘number of runners’ can it be classed as a true outsider in my book, irrespective of what form lines the thoroughbred might/might not boast before a race.


2.20: This Group 3 contest was formerly known as the ‘Arc Trial’ on the corresponding day down the years but even though we have a competitive event to witness today, this year’s representatives would (respectfully) have to start now if they were going to reach the frame (let alone win) the ‘Arc’ this time around!  Last year’s winner Desert Encounter bids to make this David Simcock’s fourth successive winner in the race and there must be a chance that the popular trainer can achieve what would be a fine record.  Plenty of others have chances despite the small field, including Extra Elusive from my viewpoint despite being hiked up in class.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this event during the last eleven years, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 15/2.


2.55: The more business being done this morning on the exchanges, the more I find this a difficult race to call.  There are plenty of other events to bet on this afternoon whereby I will pass this time around, despite having offered up last year’s winner at 10/3.

Favourite factor: Market leaders came to the gig on a hat trick last year (finished second), favourites of one description or another having secured five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1.


3.30: Another tough race on the card to call, though the booking of Gerald Mosse aboard Richard Fahey’s raider Mr Lupton catches the eye and no mistake. Gerald takes his second ride for the trainer this season, with a ratio of 1/6 for Richard down the years via a 10/1 winner, roughly the same price as Mr Lupton (at the time of writing) on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight renewals have been secured by favourites, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at 8/1, with seven gold medallists have scored at 9/2 or less.


4.05: If I had to go for one here it would be Hemocrates with SDS aboard, Richard Hannon’s raider having attracted some business in the dead of night at around the 8/1 mark.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the Newbury card, whereby the same stats apply; although four favourites have won via the last twelve renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.


4.40Emenem was the subject of the 14/1 MMA call this morning (Ladbrokes), though the likes of Temple Church and Infrastructure also boast win and place claims at each way prices according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just one winning favourite to report during the last decade, though nine of the winners during the study period scored at a top price of 8/1.


5.15: The last four renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-6 and it would come as no surprise if Letsbe Avenue went close off a relevant weight in the finale.  Bertog was also the subject of plenty of support overnight from further down the (three-year-old) handicap.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven (open) contests have been snared by favourites of one description or another.

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.


AYR: (5 year study period – last year’s meeting was abandoned)

40 races – 9 winning favourites – 30/40 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Richard Fahey (25/1, 18/1, 9/1, 13/2, 6/1* & 5/1) – 17 runners at Ayr today!!!

Ayr Silver Cup (2.40):

Richard Fahey has saddled two of the last eight winners at 18/1 & 8/1 with the trainer having declared 4 runners today, with Bengali Boys possibly leading the other trio home.   The ‘selection’ last won when lifting Newbury’s Super Sprint event by six lengths – on soft ground.

Six of the last seven winners have carried 9-2 or more, stats which eliminate 4 runners this afternoon taking jockey claims into account.

No winning favourites have been recorded since 2009 during the which time, the average priced winner was returned at 16/1.

Ayr Gold Cup (3.50):

Kevin Ryan has saddled four of the last eleven winners at 20/1, 16/1 & 11/1 (twice) – Kevin has entered four horses this time around.  Tarentum Star (has won on soft ground) could prove to be the pick of the quartet on this occasion…

Only one favourite has won this event via the last 21 renewals during which time, the two 33/1 winners were the biggest priced gold medallists.

Eight of the last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1, stats which eliminate 11 horses today, figures which include jockey allowances.

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