Aug 17

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Friday 17th

NEWBURY – AUGUST 17

 

Six year Corresponding stats at Newbury:

46 races – 18 winning favourites – 41/46 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer over the course of the two day fixture:

6 winners: William Haggas – 3 runners today: Boerhan (1.50), Swiss Air (3.30) & Island Of Life (4.00)

 

  • Similar stats for Catterick, Newmarket & Nottingham can be found after Beverley’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service:

 

1.20: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eleven renewals of this event and Fox Power was the only horse being supported in the dead of night.  I don’t like offering odds on chances but given the record of the market leaders in this event (see stats below), there is (seemingly) nowhere else to go!

Favourite factor: 13 of the 16 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include nine winners.  Market leaders have won six of the last seven contests.

Win selection: Fox Power

Draw factor (seven furlongs – latest result listed first):

12-3-2 (12 ran-good)

8-5-6 (12 ran-good

4-12-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

9-8-3 (10 ran (soft)

3-4-7 (13 ran-soft)

4-11-5 (11 ran-good)

11-10-7 (12 ran-good)

13-2-12 (11 ran-good)

1-4-9 (13 ran-good)

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

 

1.50: Richard Hannon saddles Ginger Fox with an each way chance I‘ll wager, though a similar comment also applies to Sheila’s Showcase who looked to offer some win and place value at 10/1 overnight (now a top price of 9/1 with Ladbrokes). That said, William Haggas (fine record at this two day meeting) has declared his Sea The Stars colt Boerhan who is a likely looking newcomer to consider, albeit the trainer believes his late May foal is potentially a serious three-year-old in the making.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply, whilst 13 of the 16 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include nine winners.

 

2.25: Those of us that don’t throw their alarm clocks out of the window at 4.00 in the morning were on Card Player at 4/1 early doors and though that price has long since dried up, I can’t look anywhere else for the winner.  If you can’t bring yourself to backing horses when the price has gone, an each way option is Keepers Choice according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: All four favourites (via just the three renewals) have finished out with the washing thus far.

Win selection: Card Player

 

2.55: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event (by any means) suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record seven victories during the last 16 years. Mandalayan is the only junior raider on this occasion and Johathan Portman’s raider offers some each way value, though I’m siding with Saroog who is attempting to become the sixth four-year-old winner of the race in the last eleven years.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last 19 years (one non runner–withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst nine jollies have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Saroog

Each way saver? Mandalay

 

3.30: This is one of the more difficult races to solve on the card, despite its Listed class which occasionally offers punters a slight edge. Before you start frothing at the mouth given the Irish raider in the field, it’s as well to note that the trainer’s record this side of the Irish Sea is 5/42, whilst all three runners here at Newbury were beaten.  The 7/2 quote about the relevant beast therefore finds yours truly reaching for the ‘bottle of sauce’ as I peruse the remaining contenders, with slight preference being awarded to Scintilating and Heartwarming, though not enough to become involved from a financial viewpoint.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-7-16 (15 ran-soft)

1-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-5 (9 ran-soft)

6-4-5 (8 ran-good)

5-3-6 (10 ran-good)

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

 

4.00: There has been some money for Awesome (my least favourite word in the dictionary) during the last half an hour or so, though not enough (as yet) to ruffle the feathers of those of us who took the 2/1 available about Island Of Life, believing that James Doyle’s mount was potentially an 11/8 chance in the making.  It remains to see which way the wind will blow (financially) over the course of the next few hours.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has finished in the frame thus far.  Three gold medallists have prevailed at 20/1, 10/1 & 8/1.

Win selection: Island Of Life

 

4.35: Alhakmah finished less than five lengths in front of Munaajaat at Goodwood the last day whereby I could not quite comprehend how odds of 2/5 and 33/1 were in place in the dead of night.  I took the 33’s about Brian Meehan’s raider to each way minimum stakes, even though I appreciate the favourite was making her debut at Goodwood.  The odds at least added some interest in the contest, especially as Brian Meehan’s outsider is now as short as 14/1 in a place (Hills).

Favourite factor: All four favourites (via just the three renewals) have finished out with the washing thus far.

Each way selection to minimum stakes: Munaajaat

 

5.10: Abel Tasman (in with a squeak) is still available at 11/2 with Hills at the time of writing, though I’m content to have obtained 12/1 about Bristol Missile from a win and place perspective in the finale, albeit in a competitive heat.

Favourite factor: Three renewals have produced a top priced winner of 4/1 thus far, stats which include one successful (6/4) favourite.

Each way selection: Bristol Missile

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Catterick:

36 races – 9 winning favourites – 27/36 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainers:

3 winners–Marjorie Fife (11/1, 5/1 & 13/2) – 1 runner: Perfect Words (8.15)

3 winners—John Quinn (10/1, 9/2 & 3/1) – 1 runner: Alexis Carrington (7.45)

3 winners—Richard Fahey (13/8*, 6/4* & Evens) – 2 runners: Aurag & Bengali Spirit (6.40)

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Newmarket:

36 races – 8 winning favourites – 34/36 winners have scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Richard Hannon (7/2, 10/3, 5/2 & 15/8) – 1 runner: Chatham House (6.20)

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Nottingham:

42 races – 18 winning favourites – 39/42 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Mick Channon (9/1, 8/1, 11/4** & 9/4) – 2 runners: Converter (1.30) & Caravela (4.45)

 

 

Nursery races today (poor quality races in the main – low stakes accordingly):

2.10 Wolverhampton:

Seven pound claimer Oakley Brown (smacks of a tad more class than Mal Boyle) boasts a 25% strike rate for Richard Fahey via two winners for the yard whereby Micronize might well score, albeit at a price which does not attract financial backing.

There might well be worse 40/1 chances than Nagging Doubt running today, though can’t be tempted when there are so many other options on Friday.

3.15 Wolverhampton:

Tom Dascombe won yesterday’s Nursery event (albeit after notable rivals were withdrawn) with what had looked an ordinary type before the stalls opened.  The 14/1 on offer about Five Amarones caught the eye this morning, as Tom is the type of trainer who strings winners together to good effect throughout the season.  Eyelool would otherwise have been the selection.

6.40 Catterick:

If Micronize has scored in an earlier two-year-old handicap this afternoon, I’ll wager that there will be some running up money for Bengali Spirit who looks a tad overpriced at 12/1 this morningAurag also represents the stable at the other end of the market, though it wouldn’t be the first time (not by a long chalk) that Richard has scored with the ‘wrong one’!

 

Nursery stats this season (49 races – 382 runners – as of Friday morning – 17th August):

Favourite stats (54):                     

21 winners – 9 placed – 24 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

3/6

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/23—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/7—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/15—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/12—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/32—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

147 relevant runners: 40 winners – 35 placed – 72 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

218 runners – 42 winners – 46 placed – 130 unplaced (57.1% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

164 runners – 7 winners – 18 placed – 139 unplaced (42.9% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 35 winners – 34 placed – 130 unplaced (52.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 30 placed – 139 unplaced (47.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Ann Duffield

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Ben Haslam

0/1—Steph Hollinshead

0/1—Christopher Kellett

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—Pat Phelan

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Henry Spiller

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Mark Usher

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Walker

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Andrew Balding

0/4—Tom Clover

0/4—Iain Jardine

0/4—Hughie Morrison

0/4—David O’Meara

0/5—Roger Fell

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Jamie Osborne

0/6—Ralph Beckett

0/6—Karl Burke

0/6—Joseph Tuite

0/7—Richard Hughes

0/7—Brian Meehan

0/9—Tim Easterby

0/13—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1–Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (30.6% of winners)

15—March (30.6%)

12—April (24.5%)

7—January (14.3%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

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