Aug 21

Daily analysis – Nursery Service + Preview of York’s opening day tomorrow

BRIGHTON – AUGUST 21

 

  • Please excuse the somewhat brief work pertaining to Brighton’s meeting which was a new fixture last year, hence the lack of detail. That said, I have offered details of the York races for tomorrow to make up for the lack of content today!

 

  • Today’s Nursery details follow the Brighton race by race analysis where are offered before Wednesday’s York details.

 

1.40: I could have opted for the outsider of the party Union Rose had there been some moisture in the ground but as things stand (no rain on the radar), Entertaining Ben might just last home on this company/grade.  Haylah is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.  No bet.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.10: Yuga Kawada has ridden a couple of winners from thirteen opportunities and will be out to impress Ralph Beckett on his first ride for the yard aboard Loving Pearl. Twenty years ago I would have travelling down to Brighton just to back Stormy Road as trainer Luca Cumani used to rule this particular roost, though more so in the three-year-old division as memory serves. No bet.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.

 

2.40: Sixteen days have passed since Eve Johnson Houghton saddled a winner (eleven runners during the period) which given the meteoric rise of the trainer during the last eighteen months or so, is something of a rarity.  Eve attempts to return to winning ways in this event and Kirkland Forever possesses each way claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Zoffany Bay strikes yours truly as the main threat with Silvestre aboard.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 2/1 favourite was beaten half a length when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to the 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

Each way selection to minimum stakes: Kirkland Forever

 

3.10Rocksette doesn’t exactly stand out from the crowd here but in a race which offers few (if any) clues, some support in the dead of night suggests that Gary Moore’s new inmate could turn several consistent placed efforts into winning form.

Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 10/1 and 6/4* in another short field event twelve months ago.

Win selection to minimum stakes: Rocksette

 

3.40: One of the two course winners in this four runner (win only) contest, Mamillus gets the marginal nod, mainly because cheek-pieces are back on which could make the difference between victory and defeat in this low grade.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/6 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.10:  Despite the trade press comment of Andrew Balding being in good form, it’s rarely (if ever) worth accepting quotes like that without studying the facts.  Yes, Andrew had been in fine form but with only two of his last eighteen runners having scored, you might want to give such words a wide berth!  That said, there is no denying that Dream Catching boasts claims, though Dusty is the marginal preference given the general odds on offer (9/4 against 10/11).  Last year’s comment (I still retain this belief), bearing in mind that I tipped I’m A Believer in the race (relating to the group The Monkees) – Davy Jones (lead singer) dropped out of secondary school to become….an apprentice jockey.  If you think life is hard on you at times, think of Davy who died of a heart attack at 66 years of age without an ounce of fat on his body.  Indeed, he ran several miles a day and as the doctor who pronounced him dead said at the time, “this is one person I never expected to die this way”.  Finishing on a brighter note, I also dropped out of secondary school (at 13) but have never had enough courage to even sit on a horse, let alone ride one.  I have the greatest respect for jockeys who risk life and limb every day having only reached that position by working hard to get to a position when yes, they can earn lots of money.  How many youngsters are prepared to work that hard these days?  I have always been governed by the rule that you only get out of life what you are prepared to put in.  I don’t think there has ever been a jockey who has ridden their first winner without having to work damn hard for the opportunity.

Favourite factor: The Placepot positions last year were occupied by horses which were returned at 3/1, 8/1 & 5/2*.

Win selection to minimum stakes: Dusty

 

4.40: Alketios was the best backed horse at the meeting overnight and realistic money is still in the positive exchange queue at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/11 favourite was beaten a neck by an 11/2 chance.

Win selection: Alketios

 

Today’s Nursery race:

2.00 Kempton:

The 6/31 Nursery stats for Richard Hughes last year were perfectly acceptable in what is always a tough sector to call; hence the reason for offering as much information as possible in our quest to beat the old enemy

Richard is still searching for his first two-year-old handicap winner this season and I’m hoping that Wolf Hunter can end Richard’s tally of seven beaten representatives this year.

Skybet’s offer of 7/2 stands out from the crowd and Richard appears to have found a cast iron chance for his Sir Prancealot gelding who was beaten less than two lengths the last day on his sixth appearance which was his first try in handicap company.

The official assessor has dropped the April foal a pound and as Richard stated before the season that this “character” is likely to improve with racing via a stable tour earlier in the year, Wolf Hunter is the call, albeit Shane Kelly’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’.

Clive Cox saddles just his forth Nursery runner on the season (one winner to date) and his Tamayuz filly Lady Mona might offer most resistance to the selection at the business end of proceedings.

 

Nursery stats this season (55 races – 430 runners – as of Tuesday morning – 21st August):

Favourite stats (60):                     

23 winners – 10 placed – 27 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

4/7

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/29—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

4/38—Richard Hannon (7/4*, 10/11*, 5/1 & 7/1) – 16/124 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/8—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/9—Michael Bell (11/4* & 6/1) – 1/10 last year

2/18—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/3—Ed Walker (5/4*) – 4/23 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/6—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/5—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/5—David O’Meara (5/1) 1/28 last year

1/9—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/13—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Ralph Beeckett (6/4 & 9/4)

2—William Haggas (15/8 & 11/8)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11 & 4/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

Sylvester Kirk (5/2)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

174 relevant runners: 45 winners – 42 placed – 80 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

242 runners – 48 winners – 53 placed – 141 unplaced (56.3% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

188 runners – 7 winners – 20 placed – 161 unplaced (43.7% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 41 winners – 40 placed – 147 unplaced (53.0% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 33 placed – 155 unplaced (47.0% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-9

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-2

One at 9-1

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater – 1/5 last year

0/1—Brian Barr – 0/4 last year

0/1—David Barron – 0/11 last year

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman – No runners last year

0/1—Marco Botti – 0/6 last year

0/1—Milton Bradley – No runners last year

0/1—Antony Brittain – 0/2 last year

0/1—Tony Carroll – 0/12 last year

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam – 0/6 last year

0/1—Paul Cole – 1/9 last year

0/1—Susan Corbett – No runners last year

0/1—Ann Duffield – 2/31 last year

0/1—Harry Dunlop – 1/1 last year

0/1—Seamus Durack – 0/3 last year

0/1—Robert Cowell – 0/2 last year

0/1—Charlie Fellowes – 1/4 last year

0/1—Paul George – No runners last year

0/1—Ben Haslam – 2/10 last year

0/1—Christopher Kellett – No runners last year

0/1—Gay Kelleway – 2/5 last year

0/1—Michael Madgwick – 0/1 last year

0/1—Paul Nicholls – No runners last year

0/1—Linda Perratt – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Quinn – 3/34 last year

0/1—Pat Phelan – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Ryan – 0/2 last year

0/1—Henry Spiller – 0/2 last year

0/1—Bill Turner – 0/1 last year

0/1—Mark Usher – 0/13 last year

0/1—Roger Varian – 0/7 last year

0/1—Olly Williams – 0/2 last year

0/2—Andrew Crook – No runners last year

0/2—Michael Dods – 2/26 last year

0/2—Conor Dore – No runners last year

0/2—Chris Dwyer – 1/3 last year

0/2—Robert Eddery – 0/2 last year

0/2—Brian Ellison – 2/8 last year

0/2—Steph Hollinshead – 1/9 last year

0/2—Daniel Kubler – 0/6 last year

0/2—Gary Moore – 0/12 last year

0/2—Stan Moore – 0/13 last year

0/2—Amy Murphy – 0/7 last year

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott – 3/8 – last year

0/2—George Scott – 1/10 last year

0/2—Bryan Smart – 0/18 last year

0/3—Alan Berry – No runners last year

0/3—Mick Easterby – 0/16 last year

0/3—John Gallagher – 0/4 last year

0/3—Ron Harris – No runners last year

0/3—Philip McBride – 0/11 last year

0/3—William Muir – 1/6 last year

0/3—Adrian Nicholls – No runners last year

0/3—Adam West – 2/13 last year

0/4—Andrew Balding – 1/13 last year

0/4—Tom Clover – 1/5 last year

0/4—Iain Jardine – 2/9 last year

0/4—Hughie Morrison – 0/4 last year

0/5—Roger Fell – 0/7 last year

0/5—Jamie Osborne – 4/36 last year

0/7—Ralph Beckett – 4/17 last year

0/7—William Haggas – 5/15 last year

0/7—Richard Hughes – 6/31 last year

0/7—Sylvester Kirk – 4/22 last year

0/7—Brian Meehan – 1/18 last year

0/7—Joseph Tuite – 0/9 last year

0/8—Karl Burke – 6/40 last year

0/10—Tim Easterby – 3/62 last year

0/14—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Camacho

3—Exceed And Excel

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Battle Of Marengo

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Compton Place

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dandy Man

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1–Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Lawman

1—Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sea The Stars

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

17—March (30.9% of winners)

16 winners—February (29.1%)

15—April (27.3%)

7—January (12.7%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

2 wins (Doncaster & Leicester) – Porcelain Girl (71 & 77) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Critical Data (82)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newmarket)—Star Terms (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Triggered (80)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Leicester) – Chonburi (69) & 1 unplaced (71)0

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Macho Lady (55) & 1 unplaced (55)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

Race by race stats/facts for Day 1 of York’s Ebor Meeting:

1.55 (All aged Class 2 handicap event over five and a half furlongs)

Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4, whilst we still await the first winning favourite following ten renewals.  Kevin Ryan has saddled two of the last five winners despite not having been represented last year.  Tommy Taylor has been been offered the green light this time around, potentially carrying 9-2 (drawn 11/20)

2.25: (Group 3 Acomb Stakes):

Six of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.  The projected favourite is trained by Richard Hannon who hasn’t trained a winner in the race and even his father only won it once in the last 25 years of his career. The 2nd favourite is an Aidan O’Brien raider with the trainer only boasting stats of 2/35 in this country of late. Those facts could offer each way opportunities to Persian Moon and Phoenix of Spain from my viewpoint

3.00: (Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes):

Four of the last five favourites have prevailed, whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 3/1 during the period.  Cross Counter looks to have a solid chance from the top of the market, presuming that there will be little support for Aidan’s horses until they start winning this week.  Rain could have reached York by lunchtime on Wednesday and if there is any depth to the wet stuff, Sevenna Star could outrun her price.  Wells Farhh Go won the ‘Acomb’ on this card twelve months ago and a decent effort here could put Tim Easterby’s raider in with a half decent chance in the St Leger next month.

3.35 (Group 1 Juddmonte International):

Sir Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien 6-5 in this event, the two record holders in the race having finally been spilt last year when Michael saddled the winner.  History could repeat itself here with Poet’s Word seemingly holding the call on all know form.  Six favourites have prevailed during the last decade and aside from a rogue 50/1 chance scoring three years ago, the biggest priced winner during the study period scored at 7/1.

4.15 (Two mile Handicap event):

Favourites have won three of the last nine renewals, whilst four of the last five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  I need to offer more time to assess this race as it looks to be the toughest race on the card to call, even with the twenty runner Nursery event to follow!

4.50 (Six furlong Nursery event for two-year-olds)

Eight of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13, whilst only one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, six gold medallists were returned at prices ranging between 12/1 & 33/1.  Jedd O’Keeffe saddles his first Nursery runner of the season having recorded a ratio of 3/9 in the sector last season.  His raider Evie Speed had to have at least eleven horses withdrawn at the final declaration stage from the race if she was to run – and that is exactly what happened!  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, though those gold medallists were all fillies, with his trio of inmates on Wednesday all being colts/geldings.  That said, both Eljayeff and Gabrial The Wire have been leniently treated thus far from my viewpoint.

 

 

 

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