Aug 04

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Saturday 4th

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4

 

Seven year corresponding stats for this meeting:

49 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/49 started at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 11/1, 7/1, 6/1, 9/2, 10/3, 5/2*** & 11/8*) – 11 runners on the card

 

  • Five year Newmarket stats can be found below the race by race analysis for Goodwood and before today’s Nursery details

 

1.50: The last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 which marginally goes against Boy In The Bar who is seeking to give Ryan Moore his sixth winner of the ‘Glorious’ week.  Trainer Ian Williams is a past master at sorting out these handicap to great effect whereby I expect Ryan to be in the thick of things inside the furlong marker, despite the 16 ounce ‘reversal’.  Golden Steps is another fancied horse to keep on the right side I’ll wager and from those at the other end of the market, Holiday Magic and Related could outrun their odds to potential each way effect.

Favourite factor: Just four of the last sixteen favourites have finished in the frame (one winner – last year) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Each way selection: Boy In The Bar

Outsider option? Holiday Magic

 

2.25: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 6-5 via the last 14 renewals of this event, whilst horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 have held the call of late, with five runners (seemingly) eliminated from the foot of the handicap this time around.  I offer a little note of caution regarding the weight trends on this occasion however because of the 9-1 mark allotted to last year’s winner Soldier In Action from Mark Johnston’s shrew yard.  That said, Mark has offered the green light to five inmates so I guess anything could happen this time around.  The top pair at the head of the market should certainly be contesting for honours at the business end of proceedings, namely Melting Dew and Walton Street.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 18 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (four winners) during the last 17 years.

Win selection: Walton Street

 

3.00: Sir Michael Stoute boasts ten victories down the years (Electric was his first winner back in 1982 with Greville Starkey in the plate) and many punters will latch onto the chance of SUN MAIDEN in a disappointing turnout for a Class 1 event.  Readers might think it strange that I nominated Bombyx as a threat to the selection but there has been support on the exchanges overnight and in what might turn out to be a muddle of a contest, 12/1 certainly caught my eye about James Fanshawe’s recent Doncaster winner in the dead of night.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders of one description or another have won six of the last eleven renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last thirteen gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.

Win selection: Sun Maiden

Tiny saver? Bombyx

 

3.35: 15 of the last 22 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last fourteen years).  Eight of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended ‘short list’ consists of Spring Loaded, Tis Marvellous, Glenamoy Lad and Gifted Master.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the nineteen favourites during the last fifteen years have secured Placepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include five successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of sixteen points during the last fourteen years.  Last year’s investors in the favourite were given no chance when Sir Dancealot was sleepy in the stalls whilst enduring traffic problems in the middle part of the contest.

Each way selection: Spring Loaded

Outsider to consider: Glenamoy Lad

 

4.15: ‘Team Hannon’ has secured four of the last fifteen renewals (runner up twelve months ago), statistics which include three of the last eleven contests. Richard saddles Fox Power and Glory this time around and from a Placepot perspective, I am happy to leave it to the stable companions to represent yours truly in the penultimate leg, information offered in case you are placing a similar bet yourself this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last twenty two favourites have claimed Placepot positions whilst four market leaders prevailed from a win perspective.

 

4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates the bottom four horses in the handicap on this occasion.  It’s difficult to get away from Restive Spirit here, with the three-year-old colt representing the leading trainer and jockey at the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ this week.  William Haggas has complicated things to a fashion however by also declaring Nicklaus though with Ryan Moore aboard the selection, I’m happy to give Restive Spirit the call.  That said, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Lake Volta I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (20 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed Placepot positions since I started researching the contest.  Last year’s investors on the market leader had to watch their nomination trail in last of the seven runners.

Win selection: Festive Spirit

Each way option: Lake Volta

 

5.15: This race comes with a government health warning as you can see below relating to the favourite factor ratios.  Ten different trainers have saddled the winners during the last decade which also tells you all you need to know, though it’s worth noting that five four-year-olds have scored during the study period, whilst seven gold medallists were burned with a minimum weight of 9-4.  Taking those much needed stats into account, my trio against the other eleven contenders consists of Poetic Force (one of only two four-year-olds in field), Waarif and Mister Music.  The latter named stable companion of Poetic Force could be the third consecutive winner to score at odds of 25/1 or more from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been won by horses returned in double figures, the last two of which scored at 28/1 and 25/1.  Just one (11/8) favourite has scored during the last decade.

Win selection: Poetic Force

Each way option: Mister Music

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for Newmarket this afternoon:

35 races – 7 winning favourites – 28/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainers:

John Gosden (5/1, 4/1 & 7/4*), Charlie Appleby (5/2, 5/2* & 7/4*) and Richard Hannon (8/1, 10/2 & 2/1**) are all on the three winner mark – all three trainers saddle runners today on the July course….

 

Nursery races today:

2.40 Newmarket:

Archie Watson did us another favour yesterday and takes his 3/3 ratio in the two-year-old handicap sector into this Nursery event today with his unbeaten Society Rock filly Quiet Waters who looks great value at 9/1 at the time of writing.

Archie’s April positively bounced off good to firm conditions on both occasions and with the sun beating down at Newmarket today, Ed Greatrex can steer the bandwagon on to complete the horse/trainer/jockey hat trick.

Porcelain girl has already won a Nursery event which definitely makes her a threat (despite the seven pound hike in the weights), whilst Strings Of Life completes my trio against the field, marginally ahead of Thriving.

 

5.50 Hamilton:

Keith Dalgleish (saddled a Nursery winner yesterday) looks to have found an ideal opportunity for Howzer Black to gain compensation for a defeat in Newbury’s ‘Super Sprint’, obviously appreciating this step down in grade.  Keith has also offered the green light to Northern Society which makes for interesting reading, whilst Zebzardee will be attempting to add to Richard Fahey’s trio of two-year-old handicap winners this season.

That said, Richard might be on the four winner mark in the sector if Posh Perfect won the Newmarket Nursery event earlier today.

Nursery stats this season (28 races – 216 runners – as of Saturday morning – 4th August):

Favourite stats (29): 14 winners – 3 placed – 12 unplaced

Stats of first three in the betting:

84 relevant runners: 25 winners – 18 placed – 41 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

117 runners – 25 winners – 24 placed – 68 unplaced (54.2% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

99 runners – 3 winners – 12 placed – 84 unplaced (45.8% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 18 winners – 18 placed – 66 unplaced (47.2% of runners)

8-13 or less: 10 winners – 18 placed – 86 unplaced (52.8% of total numbers)

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

5 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-9

 

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