Aug 09

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Thursday 9th

HAYDOCK – AUGUST 9

Stats for the three-day fixture at Haydock last year:

20 races – 7 winning favourites – 19/20 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

Only Mark Johnston saddled more than one winner (8/1 & 4/1) – 2 runners today: X rated (2.10) & Smile A Mile (2.40)

 

  • Six year corresponding stats for today’s Brighton Meeting can be found following the race by race Haydock analysis and before the Nursery stats below – yesterday’s message included an 11/2 winner for designated trainer Tony Carroll.

 

2.10: The opening event is full of imponderables, so much so, that the 20/1 ‘rag’ of the party Rebel Cause (Betfair/Paddy Power) has to be given a chance.  With no history to aid us, the best thing is to sit this one out, unless you make a small play on John Holt’s Cockney Rebel gelding.  Had another declaration been made, Berlusca might have made some appeal in ‘dead eight – bet nothing’ territory but in the circumstances, I’ll let others get involved.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Haydock with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in field:

2/14—Berlusca (good to firm and good to soft) – 9/85 elsewhere

 

2.40: I think it’s fair to say that Tom Dascombe rates Haydock and Chester as his favourite hunting grounds whereby Blyton warrants each way respect, albeit the market (and probably the subsequent race) is dominated by Moyaasar and Metallic Black.  No bet.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged in a short field event before last year’s 2/1 market leader finished out of the frame in a similar field.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses reward each way investors.

 

3.10: Four of the last five winners have carried 9-4 or more and the trend is expected to be extended by Biddy Brady at an each way price this afternoon.  That said, Haverland is also overpriced at 9/1 in my book and I expect this pair to outrun their early morning prices today.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though four market leaders have won during the study period.

Each way selection: Biddy Brady

 

3.40: The 6/1 trade press quote about Hee Haw looked wide of the mark in the dead of night and I certainly would not be wanting to lay an each way price about Paul Midgley’s four-year-old Sleeping Indian gelding who was beaten less than four lengths in a typically competitive event on the Knavesmire last time out.  This drop in grade (Class 4 to Class 5) surely makes Connor Beasley’s mount the horse to beat.  Born To Finish might offer most resistance close home, whilst speculative punters could do worse than to consider the win and place merits of Burtonwood.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 9/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

Win Selection: Hee Haw

 

4.10: The 4/7 ratio offered by Maid In India obviously gives the course winner a decent chance, though the 15/2 quote about Magical Dreamer catches the eye (and then some) having fully expected that Betfair/PP offer to have dried up by now.  I expect this pair to dominate close home, with Zip Along leading the remaining five contenders home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 market leader duly obliged.

Win selection: Maid In India

Each way saver: Magical Dreamer

Record of course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—Maid In India (good) – 3/6 at other venues

 

4.40: Tom Dascombe saddles another each way type on the card in his Henrythenavigator gelding Mac Opolo who looks a tad too big at 14/1 with four firms at the time of writing, six other leading companies having trimmed that price within the last hour or so this morning.  Others to consider include the two course winners listed below, namely Kajaki and Maghfoor.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: Mac Opolo (especially if you can obtain 14/1)

Record of course winner in the sixth contest on the card:

1/5—Kajaki (good to firm) – 2/18 at other venues

1/3—Maghfoor (good to firm) – 0/10 elsewhere

 

5.10: Fourteen of the fifteen available Placepot positions have been claimed by fillies carrying a minimum weight of 8-13, statistics which include all six winners at 7/1-7/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-5/4.  Unfortunately, the remaining seven runners all qualify this time around, whereby I am leaving the stats in the mix for your records as I know some of you retain such information.  Having lost the ‘dead eight’ status of the contest, I’m relying on the likes of Miss Mumtaz and Stosur to fill the short field frame.

Favourite factor:  Four of the six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far, statistics which have produced one successful (5/4) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Brighton:

43 races – 13 winning favourites – 36/43 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer:

3 winners—Tony Carroll (11/1, 8/1 & 3/1) – 9 runners today: Essaka, Wily Poet & Red Alert (2.00), Time Medicean & Suni Dancer (2.30), Henry Croft & River Dart (3.30) & Sir Jamie & Baltic Prince (5.00)

 

Today’s Nursery event – 5.45 Newcastle:

With Brian Barr saddling his first Nursery runner of the season this evening whilst digesting Jamie Osborne’s 0/3 ratio in the sector thus far, this race looks best left to the two market leaders.

That said, Mark Johnston (Kilbarchan) has already saddled four beaten favourites and given that his stats for the season in Nursery events stands at 1/20, slight preference is for Amber Spark, albeit Richard Fahey’s three two-year-old handicap winners have evolved from 18 stable contenders.

The damn of Amber Spark (Shehila) has produced one previous foal which won at the second time of asking, whilst sire Fast Dancer won both of his two juvenile assignments.

The six pounds that Amber Spark receives from the projected odds on favourite should certainly bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.

 

Nursery stats this season (35 races – 276 runners – as of Thursday morning – 9th August):

Favourite stats (38):                     

18 winners – 4 placed – 16 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/18—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/5—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/7—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/7—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/20—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/24—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

105 relevant runners: 30 winners – 24 placed – 51 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

150 runners – 30 winners – 32 placed – 88 unplaced (54.4% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

126 runners – 5 winners – 16 placed – 105 unplaced (45.6% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 23 winners – 24 placed – 88 unplaced (48.9% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 24 placed – 105 unplaced (51.1% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-2

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/3—Joseph Tuite

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/7—Tim Easterby

0/10—Tom Dascombe

0/11—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

14 winners—February

11—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.