Aug 08

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 8th

PONTEFRACT – AUGUST 8

  • You can find six year corresponding stats for Brighton after the race by race Pontefract analysis, ratios which include one (underrated) trainer who has saddled 10 winners during the course of the three day festival study period…

2.20:  Amateur events are difficult to digest as I have declared on many occasions, but the one thing I really cannot understand is why racecourses decide to stage these contests as the first race on the card.  I fully appreciate the reasons for these events, but why can’t such races be contested at the end of seven race meetings (such as this one), when people who are not overly interested in amateur contests can beat the traffic home, whereby toteplacepot wagers would also be unaffected?  Surely the friends and supporters of the amateur riders would also have more time to linger and talk to the pilots in an around the unsaddling area with no races to follow the finale?  The other point of cause is the considerable delays we face in this country regarding ‘off times’.  With amateur riders contesting the first race, surely there is more chance of horses ‘playing up’ in general terms and/or entering the stalls which professional jockeys might have avoided. It’s a ‘no-brainer’ from my viewpoint! Upwards and onward by informing that 25/1 about the chance of First Dance with Ladbrokes looks a tad big in what otherwise would have been a race to avoid.  Form book followers might argue that Final Rock and Make Me are more logical winners, though any value for those horses is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame via 17 renewals (five winners).

 

2.50: Punters who found 4/9 too short to potentially ‘burn their fingers’ about Ventura Ocean on his second start having run a race full of promise on debut at York might dive in here, believing that their timing is right.  I tend to side with juveniles that have actually won rather than make excuses for horses (especially at that price) whereby Watchmyeverymove is considered to be the value for money call if you can obtain odds of 5/2 (thereabouts).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 favourite duly obliged.

Win selection: Watchmyeverymove

 

3.20: Any rain is likely to come an hour or so too late for connections of the likes of Shouranour and Jo’s Girl, though Micky Hammond’s latter named course and distance winner makes plenty of each way appeal at 20/1 this morning.  Shouranour is rated as the main threat despite the fast ground, whilst Kiwi Bay could sneak another each way position given his consistency.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1-5/1-8/1.  A slight improvement to report the following year as the market leader (at least) claimed a Placepot position when finding one to good having been returned at 7/4.  Punters were in clover twelve month on however, as the market leaders won both divisions of the contest at odds of 9/4 & 2/1.

Each Way selection: Jo’s Girl

Record of the five course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Billy Roberts (good) – 3/21 elsewhere

2/3—Shouranour (good to firm & good to soft) – 4/45 at other venues

1/1—Jo’s Girl (good to soft) – 0/9 elsewhere

1/6—Beverley Bullet (soft) – 2/23 at other tracks

2/15—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm) – 11/127 elsewhere

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent results printed first):

8-5-4 (8 ran – soft)

1-12-14 (10 ran – soft)

1-2-7 (8 ran – good to firm)

11-8-9 (10 ran – good)

 

3.50: Eight of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more with three of the six runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend this time around.  Even money is still available with five firms relating to Reverend Jacobs (carries 9-5 – as did last year’s winner) which looks something of a steal from my viewpoint, especially as market leaders have won five of the last six contests.  James Doyle’s mount looks more of a 4/5 chance and if that does not seem a great difference from even money, the actual differential is akin to a horse being back from 9/1 into around 11/2.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the study period, though just four of the other 15 market leaders secured additional Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Reverend Jacobs

 

4.20: Low (to middle) numbers are generally favoured in such races at Pontefract though with just seven runners engaged, it’s difficult to rule anything out with any degree of certainty.  Bondi Beach Boy and Foxtrot Knight could offer some value in a race in which nothing stands out from the crowd. If another runner had been in situ, Maureb could have been given a live each way (bet to nothing) chance at 28/1 given my reading of the contest.  As it stands, Ladbrokes (out on a limb at that price at the time of writing) might get away with it this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two clear market leaders and a joint favourite have scored during the last 21 years, whilst only 10 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-2-5 (10 ran – soft)

9-13-8 (12 ran – good to firm)

4-3-1 (9 ran – good)

5-4-2 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-4 (6 ran – good)

6-4-10 (10 ran – good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-7-6 (11 ran – good)

2-9-1 (11 ran – good)

8-11-2 (14 ran – good)

5-7-6 (11 ran – firm)

13-3-9 (13 ran – good to firm)

14-2-7 (14 ran – good)

13-7-14 (15 ran – good to firm)

1-2-12 (12 ran – good to firm)

7-8-5-1 (17 ran – good)

2-17-3-5 (17 ran – good)

16-3-4-17 (17 ran – good to firm)

11-2-12 (14 ran – good to firm)

11-4-3-2 (18 ran – good to firm)

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Classic Pursuit (good) – 8/69 elsewhere

1/4—Foxtrot Knight (soft) – 4/50 at other tracks

1/4—Bondi Beach Boy (good to firm) – 3/48 elsewhere

 

4.50: First Flight was available at 6.30 this morning when I offered my Morning Market Assessment, though Brian Ellison’s seven-year-old raider is as short as 11/4 now, with 10/3 in five places now standing out from the card.  Without wishing to take victory for granted – win, lose or draw, you really should set your alarm for earlier in the day, especially if you ‘missed chalks’ this morning!  Two For Two is nominated as the chief threat.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the thirteen favourites (via ten renewals) have finished out with the washing, statistics which include two successful market leader and one joint favourite from a win perspective.

Win selection: First Flight

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

8 (4 ran – soft)

2-1-4 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-9-4 (9 ran – good)

3-1-2 (8 ran – good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran – good)

3-6-10 (10 ran – good to firm)

12-4-3 (11 ran – good to firm)

4-5-1 (8 ran – good)

6-5-17 (14 ran – good)

7-3-8 (8 ran – good)

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/1—Mutarakez (soft) – 3/29 at other venues

1/3—Rockwood (good) – 6/46 elsewhere

1/5—Pumaflor (good) – 3/48 at other tracks

 

5.25: The same early price of 4/1 (see comment relating to the previous race on the card) was available about Arcavallo and I’m hoping that we end the meeting in ‘double form’ via the last two races on the card.  Round The Island is feared most.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite though that said, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 11/2.

Win Selection: Arcarvallo

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

BRIGHTON: The trainer who was detailed above is Tony Carroll whose 10 winners during the course of the three day meeting includes eight gold medallists returned at prices ranging between 5/1 & 14/1.

Wednesday’s six year corresponding details at Brighton:

45 races – 14 winning favourites – 41/45 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Tony Carroll (14/1, 13/2, 6/1, 5/1 & 5/2*) – 6 runners today: Nouvelle Ere (1.40), Pour La Victoire (3.10), Imbucato & Papa Delta (4.10), Sir Jamie (4.40) & Altaira (5.10)

 

WEDNESDAY’S NURSERY SERVICE (Fully updated after yesterday’s three results:

Today’s two-year-old handicap: 2.40 Brighton

As a winner of a two-year-old handicap already this season, North Korea looks a tad big at 6/1 with Paddy Power, as does Wolstonbury at 13/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair.

Mick Channon has (unusally) saddled his first ten runners in the Nursery division without a winner to report this year and Bet365 have jumped on that stat I’ll wager by offering Solesmes at 10/3, even though Mick’s dual winner this term is as short as 2/1 in a place at the time of writing.

It’s all ifs and maybe’s resulting in the conclusion – no bet!

 

Nursery stats this season (34 races – 270 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 8th August):

Favourite stats (37):                     

17 winners – 4 placed – 16 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/18—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/5—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/6—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/7—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/20—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/24—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

102 relevant runners: 29 winners – 24 placed – 49 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

145 runners – 29 winners – 31 placed – 85 unplaced (53.7% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

125 runners – 5 winners – 16 placed – 104 unplaced (46.3% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 22 winners – 24 placed – 87 unplaced (49.3% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 23 placed – 102 unplaced (50.7% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-2

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/7—Tim Easterby

0/10—Mick Channon –

0/10—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

14 winners—February

10—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

 

 

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