Jul 14

Daily Analysis – Saturday 14th + following days

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY 14th + following days

 

  • Latest updated Nursery facts and comment for today’s two-year-old handicap at York (5.20) can be found below Newmarket’s race by race analysis:

 

1.05: Blow By Wind was the subject of some overnight support and I make Mark Johnston’s raider the main threat to Quorto, representing value for money from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1

Each way selection: Blown By Wind

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Neverland Rock (good to firm)

1/1—Quarto (good to firm)

 

1.40: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 23 of the last 27 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last seven winners, whilst five-year-olds have snared four of the last seven contests. My quartet against the field taking into account the facts and stats comprises of Gilgamesh, Burnt Sugar, Makzeem and Love Dreams.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last fifteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on ten occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty two market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Each way selection: Burnt Sugar

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/3—Love Dreams (soft)

1/2—Makzeem (good to soft)

1/1—Cardsharp (good)

1/2—Tupi (good to firm)

1/2—Mountain Rescue (good)

1/3—Von Blucher (good to firm)

 

2.15: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn. Limato is good on his day (won this race two year ago) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereby some of the horses towards the front of market look set to dominate, particularly the duo of Blue Point and U S Navy Flag.  If you are looking for an extreme outsider to consider, you could do worse that have an each speculative stake on Sir Dancealot.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 16 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Speculative each way selection: Sir Dancealot

Record of the three course winner in the July Cup:

1/2—Limato (good)

1/2—Sir Dancealot (good to firm)

1/2—Invincible Army (good to firm)

 

2.50: Assembly Of Truth should take the beating, with Spanish Aria proving to be the main threat in all probability. Both horses have been the subject of support overnight and if you are playing the Placepot today, I cannot visualise both runners finishing out of the frame, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and two silver medals thus far.

Win selection: Assembly Of Truth

 

3.20: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more and it’s worth noting that just 21 ‘qualifiers’ have run in total via the last five contests to produce decent priced winners at 12/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around and I prefer the chances of First Contact, Moqarran and Clubbable against the other pair, listing the trio in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Win selection:

 

3.55: 19 of the last 21 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (4/7 qualify) from my viewpoint are PERFECTION and CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 21 years, whilst 15/27 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Perfection

Record of the course winner in the sixth contest on the card:

1/2—Poetic Charm (good to firm)

 

4.30: Three-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer. I’m taking Drill to beat Mapped in the finale.

Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 9/1, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 15/8) favourites.

Win selection: Drill

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery race today: 5.20 York – Next week’s schedules two-year-old handicaps are listed at the foot of the column with relevant stats.

5.20 York: Four newcomers in the two-year-old sector and having shown reasonable form to date, I can only report realistic exchange support for The Great Heir and Blyton in the dead of night.  I would expect the winner to emerge from this pair.

 

Nursery stats this season (8 races – 56 runners – updated from yesterday):

Favourite stats (8):

3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/6—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

24 relevant runners: 7 winners – 4 placed – 13 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

34 runners – 7 winners – 7 placed – 20 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

22 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 19 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-7

One at 9-3

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-11

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-7

One at 9-6

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Michael Bell

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/3—Mick Channon

0/3—Tom Dascombe

0/3—Sylvester Kirk

0/4—Richard Hannon

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

Unplaced x 2 – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

 

Next week’s scheduled Nursery events:

Monday:

2.45 Ripon – This is a new Nursery event – no history

Tuesday:

2.45 Bath – 4/5 of the renewals have been won by market leaders.  Two of the five winners carried 9-7 to victory though conversely, the other three gold medallists carries 8-13 or less.

Wednesday:

No two-year-old handicaps scheduled

Thursday:

4.20 Leicester – Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners, with Mark having two options for Thursday’s event.  Two of the four renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst the last three gold medallists carried a minimum weight of 9-4

5.55 Doncaster – All five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst three market leaders have obliged to date.

Friday: 2.20 Nottingham – No details were available at the time of writing

 

 

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