Sep 15

Daily Analysis – Saturday 15th

Recent Chester stats and facts for their last meeting of the season today:

Last seven meetings: 

49 races – 16 winning favourites – 46/49 winners have scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer during the study period:

8 winners–Andrew Balding (ranging in price between 4/5* and 13/2) – 2 runners on the Roodee today: Night Of Glory (2.05) & Shailene (2.40)

5 winners–Richard Fahey (10/1, 4/1, 4/1, 5/4* & 10/11*) – 10 runners at the track today

Seasonal stats for trainers include:

12/40–Andrew Balding (+6)

12/96–Richard Fahey

7/41–Mark Johnston – 3 runners at Chester today

4/11–Richard Hannon (+11) – no runners unfortunately – retain these stats for next season

3/9–William Haggas (+2) – 1 runner there today


Race by race stats & facts at Doncaster today:

1.50 (Class 2 Portland Handicap): Eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst no horse has won the ‘Portland’ in the last seven years when emerging from a single figure stall.  The winner from stall seven was returned as the 4/1 favourite on the day, one of three successful market leaders of one description or another during the last decade

2.25 (Group 2 all aged seven furlong event):  The last five winners have scored at a top price of 7/2, even though the stats only confirm one successful favourite of late.  Our of interest, Andrea Atzeni has ridden two of the last three winners with the popular pilot aboard Tomyris this time around.

3.00 (Group 2 Champagne Stakes):  Just 59 runners have contested the Champagne Stakes during the last decade and it remains one of the mysteries in modern day racing why this event fails to attract more runners.  Six of the last nine renewals have been won by favourites, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Frankie Dettori looks primed to score his third victory in the race today during what will be the last ten years.

3.35 (Group 1 St Leger Stakes): Some readers might have been surprised to find that John Gosden had saddled as many winners as Aidan O’Brien in the St Leger before the Irish marstro bagged another gold medallist twleve months ago. The final classic of the season is not as predictable as it once was, with only three successful market leaders having won during the last eleven years.  During that time, the majority of bookmakers cheered home gold medallists which were returned at 25/1, 22/1, 14/1 & 12/1. Those four outsiders have secured those victories within the last nine years.

4.10 (Class 2 Nursery Handicap):  Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at 8/1 or less, with favourites of one description or another scoring on five occasions during the study period. Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12.

4.45 (One mile Class 2 all aged handicap): Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-3 during the last eleven years, whilst only one clear market leader (alongside a joint favourite) has scored via the last decade when three winners were returned in double figures.  Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1.

5.55 (Class 2 all aged 12 furlong handicap):  Five of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites.


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