Jul 07

Daily analysis – Saturday 7th



Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2014: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2013: 6/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less


35 races – 14 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

5 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (8/1, 8/1, 13/2, 5/1 & 4/1) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4 winners—John Gosden (11/2, 5/2*, 13/8* & 4/9*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)


Leading represented trainers this season:

5/10—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, 3/1*, 11/4, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4/15—John Gosden (7/2, 2/1*, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)


12.20: Different League is an interesting Aidan O’Brien entry though his handicappers from across the Irish Sea and nowhere as profitable as his ‘Pattern’ declarations. Koditime will pop up and bite us where it hurts most (in the wallet) though whether it will be today is anyone’s guess.  Similar comments apply to Sound And Silence.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites, whilst market leaders go into today’s gig on a four-timer.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

2/3—Haddaf (good & Goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Early money was for Different League but it remains to be seen if the support is sustained when more serious investors arrive in the playground


12.55: SOUTH SEAS is the type of horse that excites, frustrates and generally drives us mad as we try to anticipate if this will be his day.  At 16/1 (freely available at the time of writing), I’m hoping that I have called Andrew Balding’s talented individual right for once!  Potential party poopers in the field include Pouvoire Magique and Chiefofchiefs.  For the record, four-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last decade which points towards the chances of South Seas and Pouvoir Magique.

Favourite factor: Only one clear (2/1) favourite have won during the last ten years alongside a joint 7/2 market leader.  The only odds on chance in the race during the last twelve years finished out of the frame – tread carefully.

Each way selection: South Seas

Record of the seven course winners in the field:

1/1—South Seas (good to soft)

2/9—Secret Art (good & soft)

1/1—Via Serendipity (good to firm)

1/5—Manson (good to firm)

1/5—Master Craftsman (soft)

1/2—Chiefofchiefs (good)

2/2—Rum Runner (good to firm & Good to soft)

Overnight market activity:

Bits and pieces for a few each way types, principally Pouvoire Magique


1.30: The only trainer to have secured two wins in this race during the last decade is Sir Michael Stoute which adds confidence to my original selection DESERT DIAMIOND, albeit from an each way angle to moderate stakes.

Favourite factor: Seven years have slipped by since the last (4/6) market leader obliged.  That said, ‘only’ three gold medallists have been returned in double figures during the study period.

Each way selection: Desert Diamond

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

Overnight market activity:

Nothing major as such but there have been nibbles on 33/1 chance Darkness Falls during the last half an hour or so and there will be worse outsiders to consider this afternoon, that’s for sure


2.10: As far as we can tell going back so many hundreds of years relating to the sport, nearly every horse in trainer can be traced back to Eclipse, one way or another!  Upwards and onward by informing Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners of the ‘Eclipse’ during the last sixteen years with Saxon Warrior being his main hope this time around. It’s worth noting however the slightly negative recent figures of Aidan’s team in recent years which suggests that ROARING LION is the logical call today.  Some of the interest has disappeared overnight given the withdrawal of the Epsom Derby winner Masar, whilst Saxon Warrior has to find the thick end of three lengths with Roaring Lion if he is to turn that relevant Epsom form line around.  That said, this 10 furlong trip might prove ideal but then again, the same could be said of John Gosden’s projected favourite. Roaring Lion was oh so impressive over the trip in the ‘Dante’ at York and was going well with two furlongs to run in the Derby.  I have little (if any) doubt that the 2016 winner Hawkbill will attract plenty of each way money with Bet365 at 20/1, even though we have been robbed of the ‘dead eight’ scenario.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won the ‘Eclipse’ during the last decade.

Win selection: Roaring Lion

Each Way option: Hawkbill

Record of the two course winners in the Eclipse Stakes:

1/1—Hawsbill (soft)

1/1—Masar (good)

Overnight market activity:

There was a ton of money in the (realistic) exchange queue at around 9/4 for Saxon Warrior at the break of day and I doubt that the five firms which have the 2000 Guineas winners at that price will be quoting those odds for long.


2.45: There are too many ifs, buts and maybe’s in this contest for me to become financially involved, despite the fact that only six runners potentially face the starter.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored during the last decade alongside a pair of joint/co favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Cosmopolitan Queen (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Rogue remains an 11/1 chance with Bet365 this morning which surprises yours truly to a fashion, though I guess people will be more inclined to invest in stable companion Point Hope at around half of those odds.  I don’t believe there will be much daylight between the pair personally….


3.20: Nearly Caught has snared gold and bronze medals in the last two renewals of this event, though taking 2/1 about an eight-year-old at what might be the hottest part of the day fails to prize my wallet open, especially given the two mile distance…

Favourite factor: Three of the last six renewals have gone the way of the favourite, whilst all ten winners during the last decade have won at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the two course winner in the penultimate race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good)

1/3—Nearly Caught (goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note….


3.55: Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 to success and BAJAN GOLD is hopefully going to extend that positive trend this afternoon, whilst expecting England to be 1-0 at around this time this afternoon.  That’s where my expectancy ends!

Favourite factor: Three (joint) favourites have won during the last four years.

Win selection: BAJAN GOLD

Overnight market activity:

Jack Regan was (seemingly) the each way shout overnight though the price appears to have stabilised at around 6/1 now


Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.


Nursery service – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts on Friday were:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Thoughts this morning:

The two horses mentioned above are still uppermost in my thoughts, though there has been overnight support for Dave Dexter and I doubt the 11/2 with Ladbrokes will last long this morning.


Nursery stats this season (1 race – 12 runners in total):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2) – not represented today

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1) – not represented today

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weight carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weight carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

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