Jul 29

Daily analysis – Sunday 29th

PONTEFRACT – JULY 29

Six year corresponding results at this meeting:

42 races – 9 winning favourites – 36/42 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer during the study period:

5 winners—Richard Fahey (8/1, 5/1, 7/2, 3/1 & 13/8*) – 9 runners on the card – good luck with your permutations but please, read the opening lines of the 2.00 event before wading in too deeply!

 

2.00: This is what I wrote last year which is still worth taking into account twelve months on, from my viewpoint anyway. “Someone was suggesting to me yesterday afternoon that I should always include Richard Fahey’s horses on a Saturday which is fair comment when looking at his winners, yesterday being a prime example with 50/1, 14/1, 7/2 & 10/3 chances scoring on behalf of the yard.  Even on a very good day however, to cover the 14,915/1 accumulator, the number of four-folds to accommodate yesterday’s 29 runners from the yard was 23,751.  Imagine backing winners at yesterday’s prices and losing £883.60 to 10p stakes, especially when the total stake (even to 10p) would have been £2,375.10!  Those figures are based on 29 different races yesterday which was not (exactly) the case, with Richard typically saddling more than one runner in certain events.  That would have affected the staking pattern – but you hopefully take my point.  There is no short cut to making money in this business I’m afraid but the advice is to look at what you intend to win today, rather than what you might (would) have won/lost yesterday!” Back to today – a similar scenario unfolded yesterday as Richard’s 27 runners produced a 1,702/1 five timer – though it would have asked you to invest 80,730 five timers to ‘gain that loss’, give or take a few hundred stakes via inmates that clashed in certain events!  The relevant other point to add is that the trade press suggestion that Pontefract will be “partly cloudy” today though not from what my radar shows me at 5.00 this morning, as three umbrella’s might not be enough to ward off all the rain!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Richard Fahey’s York runner up FLAWLESS JEWAL should beat MURQAAB for openers, the other pair looking to be out of their depth, whatever the weather holds in store for racegoers this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite could only finish fourth of seven behind horses which filled ‘short field’ frame at 4/1 & 5/2.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first to horses home reward each way investors.

 

2.30: Ten different trainers have saddled the winners during the last decade which does not help a great deal, whilst three-year-olds have the best record with four victories during the last seven years. PENTLAND HILLS and SEMPRE PRESTO are the junior raiders on this occasion, whilst Corregio’s chance would improve if some the rain got into the ground this afternoon, a factor which would go against Pentland Hills in all probability.  Out of interest, Corregio finished second in the following race on last year’s card – on soft ground.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals had slipped by since the last favourite obliged before last year’s market leader prevailed at 6/4.  Five successive winners during the period were returned in double figures, ranging between 12/1 & 28/1.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Sempre Presto (good to firm)

3/13—Corregio (2 x good & good to firm)

 

3.00: If ‘my weather forecast’ proves more accurate than that of the trade paper today, PIONEERING would definitely come into the equation if even good to soft ground was in the offing by the time the third race was contested.  Otherwise, I would be more inclined towards the chances of NEVERBEEN TO PARIS and RODDY.

Favourite factor: Only two (4/1 & 5/2) favourites have won during the last eleven years, with three of the last seven gold medallists having been sent off at 28/1, 20/1 & 11/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Pioneering (soft)

1/3—Almunther (good to firm)

Each way selection: Pioneering (Neverbeen To Paris on good/firmer ground)

 

3.30: Last year’s soft ground winner ANOTHER TOUCH is available at 15/2 in a place this morning which would offer some value if any rain gets into the ground.  Failing that, BIG COUNTRY would be the call with the other potential winner Gabr looking too short at around the 6/5 mark.  Knowing your percentages is an important piece of armoury in this business.  6/5 represents a probability factor of 45.5% whereby you can make your mind up with the quote.  If you believe Gabr has a 46% chance of winning or higher you can back the Charlie Hills raider with a degree of confidence and if not, keep your money in your pocket or look for a horse which offers more venue. I offered ‘At The Races’ (I had been in front of the camera a few times in those days) an opportunity to televise a short programme to ‘educate’ viewers on now bookmakers price up events but they chose to ignore the idea, leaving punters in the dark.  Like most other people in prominence, they want to keep punters unaware, or treat them as ‘mugs’ or muggles, as J.K. would call them!

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top priced of 11/2, whilst the other 10/1 ‘outsider’ would not have been a total success on the books for many bookmakers.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1—Another Touch (soft)

Each way option: Another Touch (increase stakes if rain penetrates the surface)

 

4.05: Six of the last seven winners have carried 9-4 or more, whilst six-year-olds have held the vintage call by snaring four of the last nine renewals.  BUCANEERS VAULT possesses ticks in both boxes, whilst last year’s beaten favourite (runner up) GIN IN THE INN appeals from a value for money perspective at nearly twice the price as last year’s odds.  If the ground remains good or better, Paul Hanagan’s mount would be the call given that his second placed effort last year was gained on unfavourable soft going.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, the average winning price during the period standing at 15/2.  That said, seven of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the four course winner in the fifth race:

2/6—Gin In The Inn (good & good to firm)

2/7—Sheepscar Lad (good & good to soft)

3/8—Highly Sprung (3 x good to firm)

2/15—Mr Orange (good & good to firm)

Tentative win selection: Bucaneers Vault

Each way option: Gin In The Inn

 

4.35:  The 6/1 ‘advice’ about EXTRA LARGE that I offered to MMA readers this morning (Market Move Activity) this morning has dried up (to a fashion) as anticipated though there are still bits and pieces of 11/2 if you shop around which in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest, could prove the to be the value for money call.  4/5 is still the quote by two bookmakers about Rock Force (Betfair & PP) at the time of writing which win, lose or draw, makes little sense to yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

Each way selection: Extra Large

 

5.10: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four contests which brings in the likes of GEOFF POTTS and TEWENTYSVNTHLANCERS into the mix alongside ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR from my reading of the contest.  Ruth Carr’s latter named raider finished third in this event last year under unfavourable conditions and if I have been proved wrong relating to the amount of rain (if any evolved) during the afternoon, James Sullivan’s mount would be the win and place call.  Adding interest to proceedings in the finale is the thought that there will be worse outsiders contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon than One Boy.

Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, whilst both of the 9/2 joint favourites twelve months ago finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

2/8—Oriental Splendour (good & good to firm – 0/31 at other venues)

1/5—Knockamany Bends (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

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