Jul 12

Daily analysis – Thursday 12th

NEWMARKET – JULY 12

 

Historical facts about this meeting (seven year study):

51 races – 11 winning favourites – 48/51 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last seven years:

6 winners—John Gosden (14/1, 4/1, 3/1, 9/4, 2/1** & 11/10*) – 8 runners today: First Eleven (1.50), Elgends Of War (2.25), Jawwaal (3.00), Muntahaa & Raa Aroll (3.35), Handmaiden (4.10) & Purser & Emeraaty (4.45)

 

Out of interest, last year’s 3 day corresponding meeting stats were as follows:

22 races – 5 winning favourite (of which Aidan O’Brien saddled three) – All 22 winenrs scored at a top price of 12/1.  Aside from Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby (9/2, 7/2, 3/1 & 11/10*) ruled the roost with four winners.

 

Newmarket (July course) stats this season:

43 races – 14 winning favourites – 42/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer this season:

5/24—Richard Hannon (7/1, 13/2. 5/2*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 3 runners today: Buridan & Embour (3.00) & Tangled (4.45)

 

1.50: John Gosden has saddled four of the last six winners when represented, with John having declared First Eleven on this occasion. Thirteen renewals had slipped past since John scored with his 1997 winner Three Cheers before the recent gold medallists got John’s name back on the board in no uncertain terms. Loxley is a serious threat on this occasion however.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 years. 14 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. 15 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last 16 years.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Global Giant (good to firm)

1/1—Loxley (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

The front pair in the market look set to dominate when betting on the track opens today, with Loxley just edging the proceedings at 7/2 in terms of popularity/value for money early doors…

 

2.25: LEGENDS OF WAR is taken to beat Advertise especially at the overnight price of 5/2 which quickly disappeared by those of us who are stricken by insomnia.  Sometimes it pays to be afflicted with ailments!

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have secured win and place positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include four gold medallists.

Win selection: Legends Of War

Overnight market activity:

It’s a similar scenario in the second race with Legends Of War probably proving the more popular at 9/4 when the offices open later this morning

 

3.00: Eleven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those years being returned at 40/1-25/1-12/1-12/1–11/1-17/2-8/1-7/1-7/1-7/1-13/2, an average price of 19/2 during the last eleven years.  Thirteen winners during the last fifteen years have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 which eliminates the top pair in the handicap from my viewpoint.  Trainer ‘mentaility’ fascinates yours truly, which is one of the biggest understatements I have written in these daily columns in the last eighteen years.  Richard Hannon is the leading trainer at the venue this season and his three runners today are all (good to firm) course winners, among just nine on the entire card.  Richards saddled two of them against each other here which is a little frustrating, though both BURIDAN and EMBOUR are offered each way chances at the very least.  Both horses are drawn high which has been an advantage in this race of late.  Tribal Quest and Stormbringer will rightly have their fair share of supporters in an intriguing three-year-old contest.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst 10 of the 23 market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 21 years.  

Win selection: Buridan

Each way alternative option: Embour

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

1/1—Embour (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There is plenty of money for several runners in this field though Jawwall looks as solid as any around the 7/1 mark

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals of this twelve furlong Group 2 event with just three of the seven entries made up from the relevant vintage this time around.  Mirage Dancer is taken to get the better of Laraaib at the business end of proceedings. For the record, Sir Michael Stoute (Mirage Dancer) has saddled fifteen winners since the end of May via a 25% strike rate, these months offering some of the hardest race to win during the entire year.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have scored in the last 20 years though eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/1 during the last decade.

 

4.10: This is probably as difficult for punters as any race which will be contested over the three days of the July meeting. At least three experienced horse could prove good enough, accompanied by two likely looking newcomers in Wingreen and Yourtimeisnow.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last sixteen years.

 

4.45: Tangled is Richard Hannon’s third and final runner on the card and for reasons stated earlier in this analysis, Tom Marquand’s mount is given a sporting each way chance at 66/1 today!  WHITE MOCHA is another outsider that could outrun his odds in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged via five renewals thus far during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 7/1.

Each way selection: White Mocha

Outrageous option: Tangled

Record of the two course winners in the sixth race:

1/1—Naval Intelligence (good to firm)

1/2—Tangled (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Bookmakers are united right across the board relating to their 9/2 quote about Symbolization, not seemingly wanting to offer punters a 5/1 ‘bet to nothing’ option in the contest

 

5.20: The each way chance for last year’s winner SHAMSHON is there for all to see, albeit the seven-year-old appears to have lost his way of late.  That said, Shamshon runs off a seven pound lower mark than was the case twelve months ago, notwithstanding the fact that Stuart Williams has booked a seven pound claimer for good measure.  Effectively therefore, last year’s winner is carrying a stone less which suggests that he might only need to be 95% back to his best to score!  I would certainly advise an each way saver at 16/1 this morning.  Form students might prefer the chance of Leo Minot the other end of the market as they peruse today’s opening card of what is always a fascinating meeting.

Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last decade have scored at 12/1 or less, statistics which include three (9/2, 9/2 & 9/4) winning favourites.

Each way selection: Shamshon

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/1—Leo Minor (good to firm)

1/3—Compas Scoobie (good to soft)

1/2—Shasshon (good)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

The next Nursery races are scheduled for Friday: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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