Jul 11

Daily analysis – Tuesday 11th

CATTERICK – JULY 11

 

  • All the Nursery stats/facts/comment can be found below Catterick’s race by race analysis – best of luck today guys…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 4/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 2/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

Totals:

37 races – 16 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

Four trainers saddled a trio of winners during the period, the pick of which could arguably be Mark Johnston (9/1, 5/1 & 11/10*) who secured a 20/1 double on last year’s corresponding card.  Mark saddles two runners this afternoon, namely Prairie Spy (3.10) & Kittileo (4.10)

Leading represented trainers this season:

4/19—Richard Fahey (10/1, 6/1, 9/4* & 2/1*) – 1 runner: Essenza (3.10)

2/5—Ann Duffield (50/1 & 5/2) – 1 runner: Symphonic (4.45)

 

2.10: Associate Rock is beginning to attract bits and pieces of money in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges and it’s worth noting that Amy Murphy has moved back up on trip with her Society Rock Raider.

Favourite factor: Although two of the seven races to date have been won by market leaders, yours year have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: Associate Rock

 

2.40: Horatio Star’s debut effort went into the notebook a few weeks back and it is interesting to see Brian Meehan saddling his Mount Nelson gelding at this venue which has not been kind to his team (3/37) down the years.  Conversely, Owen Burrows has won with one of just two runners at the track and Owen’s declaration of Mutanaqel warrants respect accordingly.

Favourite factor: Four of the last five favourites have won whilst the other gold medallist during the period was sent off at just 11/8.

 

3.10: Please refer to my Nursery notes below.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to note that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot & each way perspectives.

 

3.40: Unbeaten course winner (albeit via just the one assignment at Catterick) Iron Sky is the call in another trappy race on the card, whilst stable companion Kirbec has a chance of finishing in the frame at a double figure price.  Montague must surely go close but at 2/1, though I would rather let the Poets Voice colt win than become a player at those odds.  Tim Easterby (May Symphonic) throws the proverbial spanner in the works given that the stable has won this event with its last two runners via the relevant trio of renewals.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last six contests whilst five gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/2 during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Iron Sky (good)

 

4.10: Sometimes you have to look behind the scenes and discover stats which are not always staring you in the face.  Yes I have revealed (below) That Italian Riviera has won three of his five race here at Catterick, though further investigation tells us that Ken Slack’s consistent performer has also snared gold on two of his three races under the NH code at this venue!  What adds further confidence is that trainers have missed an ‘edge’ here, as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.

Favourite factor: Another good race for punters in recent years as four of the last six renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight winners scored at 5/1 or less.

Win selection: Italian Riviera

Record of the course winner in the field:

3/5—Italian Riviera (2 x good & soft)

 

4.45: It defies belief at times some of the reports you read in the trade press (at just £2.90 a copy!) as the comment for this race is that trainer Geoff Harker has his team in good form.  I appreciate this this type of comment is open to personal interpretation but win, lose or draw today, I don’t consider 3/37 stats under this code since February as being particularly attractive.  Upwards and onward however, by suggesting that Rebel State and Size Matters should give Geoff’s Extrasolar something to think about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick.

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event on the card:

1/11—Deben (good)

1/4—Tom’s Anna (good to firm)

 

5.15: Ladbrokes were (unusually) out on a limb by offering 9/2 about Perfect Thought in the dead of night and though the price has been trimmed to 4/1 in the interim period, the probability factor of 20% still undermines his chance from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The finale is a new race on the Catterick card

Win selection: Perfect Thought

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 3.10 Catterick & 4.00 Lingfield

3.20: Catterick:

Mark Johnston won a Nursey event with a top weight yesterday and Prairie Spy should similarly be up to repeating the feat on behalf of the stable in this grade/company.  The fact that Mark secured the first victory in the race twelve months ago adds confidence. That all said, Essenza is Richard Fahey’s only runner on the card which is unusual to say the least whereby little can be taken for granted, especially in an event restricted to fillies.

4.00: Lingfield:

Mark Johnston is also represented in the other two-year-old handicap today, albeit from the bottom of the handicap this time around.  Al Manhala is the relevant entry, thought the stable might have to settle for the silver medal here with FREE LOVE having been declared. Tom Clover saddles his first Nursery runner of the season and Tom’s Equiano filly is the horse to beat from my viewpoint.

 

Nursery stats this season (3 races – 25 runners):

Favourite stats (3):

1 win & 2 unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

9 relevant runners: 2 winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

14 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—Richard Fahey

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018 – 24 horses – 25 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

 

 

 

 

 

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