Sep 18

Daily Analysis – Tuesday 18th


1.50: Mark Johnston endured a slow start to the Nursery season but has now saddled six winners in the two-year-old handicap sector whereby Massam can be backed with a degree of confidence I guess, though the trade press price of 11/10 will be difficult to obtain, with 4/5 firmly in place at the time of writing with plenty of 8/11 beginning to appear.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last eight contests during which time, five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.


2.20: The boys and girls in the trade press office seem to have got this race base over apex as well having put Magic J in at 6/1, despite Ed Vaughan’s Scat Daddy raider being an expensive purchase with Oisin Murphy booked to ride.  That said, Swindler and Excelled both posted positive debut efforts whereby this will be anything but a stroll in the park for the projected favourite, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged.


2.50: All six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which suggests that Great Beyond and Hamlul should finish in from of Bombyx. The 3/1 quote available with Betfair about the latter named Sir Michael Stoute raider might not last too long this morning I’ll wager. – win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a hat trick twelve months ago having secured three of the previous four renewals.  The last six market leaders have all finished in the frame despite last year’s 5/4 jolly finding one too good close home.


3.20: This is all but a seller in all honesty with horses contesting the race from marks of 46 up to just 62.  ‘Odds’ of 15/8 are freely available on the exchanges in the dead of night despite Long Call being quoted at 5/4 almost right across the board by bookmakers.  That price looks sure to ease throughout the morning but what might beat the projected jolly is not obvious by any means. I guess the 6/1 quote from Paddy Power/Betfair might attract some win and place money, soon rather than later in the day.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 market leader finished five lengths adrift of the 18/1 winner despite securing the silver medal.


3.50: I have a lot of time for Jason Weaver as a general rule but his quote of Richard Spencer being on “hot form” on Saturday after saddling a winner was taken to task by yours truly at the time and with Richard now having saddled just one of his last fourteen runners to winning effect, I expect Mark Johnston’s ex pilot feels like eating his words!  I have long since suggested that you should not believe all you read and hear relating to the sport of kings and this is a classic example of why.  Richard saddles Strategic Heights on this occasion and 12/1 might attract some support (not without each way claims), whilst Lalania will be difficult to kick out of the frame according to the gospel of yours truly.  Whether Oisin’s mount will win as another matter entirely, though the Stuart Williams raider is being well supported at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 market leader finished in mid-div (fifth of nine) twelve months ago behind horses which filled the frame at 11/2 – 15/2 – 16/1.


4.20: We have another uneasy market leader on the card to contend with here with Heavenly Guest proving to be anything but popular having been chalked up at 5/4 with some firms.  Ralph Beckett has won with two of his last three runners whereby Poyle George Two could prove to be the pick of the shorter priced runners, though this is not my type of race at all.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Yarmouth card.


4.50: Five-year-old War Whisper attempts to become the fifth vintage representative to lift this prize during the last eight years, with Oisin Murphy having yet another decent chance of riding a winner on the programme.  Three-year-olds have won two of the last three contests and Wiff Waff and Queen Of Desire look sure to offer some resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed whilst the last six gold medallists have scored at a top price of 11/2.


All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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