Jul 03

Daily analysis – Tuesday 3rd

BRIGHTON – JULY 3

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2016: 0/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2014: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2013: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

36 races – 7 winning favourites – All 36 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—George Margarson (14/1, 12/1 & 6/1) – 1 runner: City Guest (4.30)

 

Brighton details this season:

64 races – 18 winning favourites – 61/64 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainers this season:

4/7—Richard Hughes (10/1, 2/1, 6/5* & Evens*) – 2 runners: Noteworthy (2.00) & Jack Taylor (5.00)

 

Trainer information brought forward from yesterday:

Michael Bell has saddled his last three runners to winning effect at 4/1, 11/4 & 15/8 – Michael saddles two at Chepstow today

Dan Skelton won with four of his six runners at Uttoxeter on Sunday (no runners yesterday) and goes in search of more swag at Stratford today with two inmates – though the trainer is 0/13 there this season – time to break his duck you might think…..

 

Trainer stats emerging from Monday:

Mark Johnston has five runners today (four at Hamilton – the other at Chepstow) having won with four of his last nine runners

Les Eyre is enjoying a fine season (recent stats of 2/3) – his next potential runners are at Haydock on Thursday

2/3 for Adam West of late – three potential runners on Thursday

Ralph Beckett saddles three at Chepstow – last two runners have won

William Haggas has two at the welsh venue – 3 of last 5 have won

2/3 runners for Mick Easterby won yesterday – 2 entries today

 

Race by race analysis at Brighton:

2.00: With Richard Hughes boasting 4/7 stats at the track this season, NOTEWORTHY appears to be the horse to beat in a race which should take little winning.  That said, four-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, with Born To Boogie being the lone vintage representative this time around. Bill Turner’s raider has a better chance here than on some recent assignments and just about warrants inclusion for those seeking a win and place option to the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last ten renewals was won by a (7/2**) favourite.

Win selection: Noteworthy

Each way option: Born To Boogie

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/2—Prancearoundthetoon (good to firm) – 0/8 elsewhere (includes five all weather assignments)

Overnight market activity:

Dribs and drabs of interest for Monarch’s Maid but not of persuasive liquidity

 

2.30: The ground is right for Buzz Lightyere and if I had to make an investment (which thankfully is not the case), I would probably opt for Philip Hide’s five-year-old raider.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/6—Stormbound (2 x good to firm) – only 1/11 elsewhere on turf

3/14—Buzz Lightyere (2 x good to firm & good) – all three wins to date (total stats of 3/26) have been gained at this venue

Overnight market activity:

Not activity as such, but Limerick Lord might be of interest to some at 11/2 with a few firms, given his 3/1 trade press quote overnight.  I doubt the 11/2 will be beaten later today.  There was some earlier money for Stormbound who is 9/2 almost across the board now…

 

3.00: There was a time not so long ago that when the blue colours of Godolphin came to town, everyone wanted to be on the relevant thoroughbreds and whether that remains locked in the memory banks of the lads and lasses at Ladbrokes and Betfair I’m not sure, because there 4/7 quotes about Fitzsimmons looks out of place with 4/5 nearly available on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Either way, I’m swerving the contest!

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Brighton programme to assess.

Overnight market activity:

Fitsimmons in on the drift but equally, there was nothing of note for any rival in the dead of night

 

3.30: Dual course and distance winner ROY ROCKET should only have to reproduce the form shown last week when securing a facile success to go very close in this grade/company.  Tempering enthusiasm however are the sobering favourite facts as listed below.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following seven renewals to date, with two of the last three gold medallists have scored at 14/1.

Win selection: Roy Rocket

Record of the three course winners in the fourth contest:

7/20—Roy Rocket (5 x good to firm + good & good to soft) – 0/30 at other venues!

2/17—Solveig’s Song (good to firm & good to soft) – 2/34 elsewhere

3/30—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – good) – 3/34 at other tracks

Overnight market activity:

The only overnight money was for last week’s course winner Roy Rocket who looks solid enough at 6/4

 

4.00: Matchmaking was gelded during the winter and if last week’s winning effort was anything to go by, the operation has made a man of him, which is quite strange given the circumstances!

Favourite factor: Although last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished second, the jolly was seven lengths adrift of the winner who was returned as the second favourite at 3/1.

Win selection: Matchmaking should win but Sit Mark Prescott’s raider is too skinny to persuade this working man from parting with his cash.

Overnight market activity:

I doubt the current price of 3/1 about Berkshire Spirit will be beaten later in the day though equally, it might take a brave person to oppose the favourite…

 

4.30: With one of the runners already having been withdrawn, the worry is that this becomes a ‘win only’ contest which would scupper thoughts of CITY GUEST being a half decent each way proposition.  There are a couple of reasons for selecting George Margarson’s raider one of which, is that the trainer is the leading handler at this corresponding meeting in recent times.  George and Jane Elliot (still value for money via her five pound claim) teamed up to winning event in the race last year and the best of City Guest’s form which make him difficult to beat here I’ll wager.  That said, 310 days off the track is a sobering statistic…

Favourite factor: Six renewals have been contested since the last favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: City Guest

Record of the three course winners in the sixth event on the card:

2/2—Enzo (2 x good to soft) – 0/8 elsewhere

1/1—Starboy (good to soft) – 0/10 at other tracks

1/2—Kachumba (good to firm) – 2/4 on turf in total

Overnight market activity:

City Guest was the only horse for money overnight, albeit he was not “moving and shaking” to any great degree.

 

5.00: ‘Stat anoraks’ (of which I am one) will be hoping for a first/last race double for Richard Hughes which would take his ratio here at Brighton to 6/9 this season, though that potential scenario is ‘jumping the gun’ to say the least.  The declarations of Wotadoll and Jeapardy John are strong enough to oppose Jack Taylor even though I think he will win.  It’s time I went back to bed me thinks….

Favourite factor: Although only one market leader has won during the last decade, two of the last three winners were returned at 5/4 and 15/8 without being returned as favourites in their respective events.

Record of the two course winner in the finale:

1/2—Jack Taylor (good to firm) – beaten a short head on the other occasion

1/1—Wotadoll (good to soft) – 1/6 at other turf tracks

Overnight market activity:

What money there is has been for Wotadoll during the first few hours of daylight…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

2 comments

    • Ted Hyland on July 3, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    Have subscribed to Mal Boyle & can log in at IBRT.COM, but there is no link to access the Stats/Selections & no emails.
    How can I access selections?

  1. Apologies Ted – have not seen this before due to ill health Sir but presume by now that Tony has been in touch and things are now okay Sir – Thanks for ‘following’. Best of luck this weekend (and beyond). Mal

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