Jul 09

Daily analysis – Tuesday 9th

WINDSOR – JULY 9

 

  • Latest Nursery updated stats and early thoughts on tomorrow’s relevant Pontefract event can be found after today’s race by race Windsor analysis.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2016: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Clive Cox (7/1, 15/8* & 13/8*) – 1 runner: King’s Slipper (8.10)

 

Leading represented trainer this season:

7/45—Richard Hannon (8/1 (three times), 5/1*, 3/1, 2/1* & 4/9*) – 5 runners: Swiper (6.10), Sotomayor (6.40), Motown Mick (7.10), Fanfair (7.40) & Anchises (8.10)

 

5.40: Nine of the ten winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date, whilst only three four-year-olds have been declared despite vintage representatives have secured seven victories to date. Letmestopyouthere and Impart should run well on behalf of the vintage, whilst Aguerooo completes my trio against the remaining ten contenders.

Favourite factor: Eight years have slipped by the since the last favourite obliged though that said, every subsequent winner has scored at 10/1 or less.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/3—Picket Line (good)

1/7—Pretty Bubbles (good to firm)

2/14—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

1/6—Pharoh Jake (soft)

Overnight market activity:

The 11/2 quote for Aguerooo by four leading firms at the time of writing is not expected to last long according to the gospel of yours truly; win, lose or draw.

 

6.10: Brian Meehan’s Zebedee colt BOA NOVA contested the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago and though asked to concede seven pounds to his rivals here, 11/2 (in a place) looks a tad too big from my viewpoint, especially as trainer Brian Meehan does not go to war at the big meeting very often aside from Pattern and handicap events for older horses.  That all said, the chances of Swiper and Glorious Lover are also respected.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market lost out by the minimum margin.

Win selection: Boa Nova (to moderate stakes)

Overnight market activity:

Although the swing could move both ways, it could be worth taking a chance on the 11/2 offered by Betfair this morning relating to the chance of Boa Nova.

 

6.40: The exchanges are suggesting that there will not be a great deal between Sotomayor and Star Of Zaam, either in the market and/or in the subsequent contest. A quick check of the favourite factor stats below will enlighten your knowledge in terms of which way you play the race.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a fine record here having gained four gold medals and one of the silver variety via just the five contests to date.

 

7.10: Kevin Ryan has a few runners on the card and it could be that his Society Rock gelding How Bizarre will make Brigand pull out all the stops at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Each way selection (to a fashion): How Bizaare

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Motown Mick (good to soft)

 

7.40: Fanfair (each way) and El Borracho would be my chosen pair against the field, though not enough to prize my wallet out of hibernation.

Favourite factor: All manner of results have been recorded whereby any area of the market could provide the winner.

 

8.10: High in numbers but short on potential winners, this race will not take a great deal of winning, with King’s Slipper and Anchises expect to dominate close home.  For the record, the pair is listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

8.40: Bayshore Freeway could send punters home happy with Mark Johnston’s team in good from at present.  Mark only sent two three-year-old handicappers to Windsor last year (both beaten) which is something of a surprise but if my selection scores tonight, we can expect plenty of relevant inmates to make the long journey over the next four months or so.

Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has won via six renewals to date, five gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 7/2.

Win selection: Bayshore Freeway

Overnight market activity:

Bayshore Freeway is currently on offer at 7/2 (generally available) but I expect Mark Johnston’s raider to attract plenty of support, especially with Frannie Norton having made the journey…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery event – Tuesday – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

Placed – Finoah (78)           

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Camachess (69)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)     

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakaande (82)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

After Tuesday, there are two scheduled Nursery event on Wednesday at Catterick and Lingfield.

 

 

 

 

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