Jul 04

Daily Analysis – Wednesday 4th

BATH – JULY 4

 

  • My first Nursery stats are offered below the race by analysis – given that the opening two-year-old handicap of the season is contested tomorrow at Haydock.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 6/1 or less

2015: 0/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/2 or less

2013: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

34 races – 13 winning favourites – 33/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

Roger Charlton (3 winners) is not represent today and of the 7 trainers to have saddled a brace of gold medallists in recent years, Rod Millman (6/1 & 4/1) might be the man to follow – 1 runner: Red Miracle (8.10)

 

Stats for this season’s results:

60 aces – 16 winning favourites – 57/60 scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer this season:

4/10—Mark Johnston (11/4, 11/10*, 5/6* & 8/11*) – 1 runner: Vale Of Kent (7.40)

 

  • Please excuse the brief nature of the race by race analysis this morning (having completed the rest of the work earlier) due to ill health….

6.10: Silvestre De Sousa boasts ten points of level stake profit when teaming up with Chris Dwyer and the pair look set to go close with ARACANISTA.  Three time course winner (last season) JAGANORY can offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the six course winners in the opening race:

2/5—Archimedes (good to firm & firm)

3/23—Jaganory (good to soft – soft – firm)

4/19—Molly Jones (4 x firm)

5/30—Dreams Of Glory (2 x firm – 2 x good to firm – good)

1/10—Spellmaker (firm)

2/18—Bauauq (good to firm & good to soft)

 

6.40: Bill Turner gave us a nice 10/1 winner yesterday and with the yard sending out a few gold medallists of late, LITTLE BOY BLUE might be the way forward here, albeit to moderate stakes.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/15—Showmethewayavrilo (soft)

 

7.10: The forecast of Queen Of Desire to beat Party Dancer will not make us rich, but it seems the only route to take if you must have a bet in the race.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/2—Queen Of Desire (firm)

 

7.40: Three of the four winners saddles by Mark Johnston at Bath this season have been returned as favourites and the trend should be extended by VALE OF KENT.

 

8.10: Sir Mark Prescott supporters have made plenty of money following progressive three-year-olds over a distance of ground from the stable and Altra Vita looks to be in the same mould.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Altra Vita

 

8.40: There are different reasons why any of the top three horses in the market could win this event whereby I will swerve the contest.  For the record, most people seem to be in agreement as there is precious little liquidity involved on the exchanges, particularly on the positive front.

Record of the two course winners in the sixth contest:

1/7—Attain (firm)

3/10—Avoacadeau (2 x firm & good)

 

9.10: Anything that Ed De Giles saddles at this track this season looks to be worth an each way saver at least, given that Ed’s ratio stands at 2/4 thus far, the winners having scored at 40/1 & 10/1.  Ed’s only representative on the card tonight is DELIRIUM.

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics

 

Positive Nursery stats from last year – with the 2016 ratios listed in brackets:

6/31—Richard Hughes (3/34)

5/15—Wiliam Haggas (4/30)

4/9—Charlie Appleby (4/11)

3/7—Simon Dow (2/14)

3/8—Sir Mark Prescott (2/15)

3/9—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/2)

2/5—Gay Kelleway (0/3)

 

Negative Nursery figures last year – 2016/2017 aggregates in brackets:

0/18—Brian Smart (2/41)

0/17—James Tate (0/20)

0/16—Mick Easterby (2/26)

0/13—Mark Usher (1/30)

0/12—Mick Aplleby (1/37)

0/12—Tony Carroll (0/20)

0/12—Gary Moore (1/20)

0/11—David Barron (2/29)

0/11—Stuart Williams (2/20)

0/10—Scott Dixon (0/17)

 

 

 

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