Aug 19

Daily analysis & York stats/facts for Wednesday – Sunday 19th

PONTEFRACT – AUGUST 19

Six year corresponding stats for Pontefract:

44 race – 17 winning favourites – 42/44 winners scored at a tip price of 11/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—Richard Fahey (ranging between 5/2 & 7/1 – 3 winning favourites) – 4 runners today: Don Logan (2.00), Dance Eva & Darkanna (3.35) & Crownthorpe (4.05)

 

  • Similar stats are available for Southwell following Pontfract’s race by race analysis
  • I start my countdown to York’s big Ebor meeting today offering stats/facts about two of Wednesday’s races which can be found below

 

2.00: Let’s be honest (as opposed to media types who hype up this sport all too often), this is a disappointing meeting – and then some. With precious little money about on either the books or the exchanges and only one renewal to work with, I wouldn’t insult your intelligence by offering a selection.  For the record, Richard Fahey (Don Logan) has forty two-year-old winners to his name this season, if that stat persuades you to part with your ‘hard earned’.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: Three-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests which about is par for the course in these mixed vintage events. Typically, Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have ‘seen the light’ whereby Lynwood Gold is the tentative call, though not with enough confidence to part with cash.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via 17 renewals to date.  Eleven of the nine favourites have snared Placepot positions in the process.

 

3.05: Fourteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more though just the two outsiders of the party can be eliminated via the stats this time around.  The major problem I have with the contest is that Ed Dunlop is heavily involved, given that he trains the warm favourite.  I haven’t been guilty of backing an Ed Dunlop winner since the ‘rappers’ somehow found their way into the music business, though I use the combination of rap and music against my better judgment. Not wishing to single out Ed for my misguided viewpoint of his runners down the years, I also nominate his brother Harry into the fold which is so against the grain, given that dad John and I had a wonderful arrangement of backing winner upon winner when he ruled Arundel in all of its pomp and glory.  I should point out that John was unaware of ‘our arrangement’!  When I back his son’s runners they lose and vice versa if I opt for their relevant rivals.  Ed saddles the 11/10 favourite which is the only horse with ticks of the afore mentioned trend (vintage & weight) boxes.  Case closed – no bet!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst 11 of the 22 market leaders claimed Placepot positions.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals. The pick of the relevant quintet of representatives on this occasion will hopefully prove to be Promising who looked a tad too big at 9/1 in the dead of night though I notice that few (if any) of my (insomniac) followers have seemingly plunged in to take that price. Golden Spell and Tirania are others that could reward each way investors from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in order of preference behind the selection.

Favourite factor: Four favourites (including two odds on chances) have scored via eighteen renewals to date.  That said, only two of the other fifteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Each way selection: Promising

 

4.05: Eleven of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less and the trend could continue here via Autretot and Crownthorpe who could please the vast majority of the crowd by sending more fancied southern rivals home licking their wounds.  David O’Meara (Aurtretot) is finally getting his act together after a torrid ten months or so by his high standards, having saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Six of the nineteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders securing Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Autretot

 

4.40: I would rather visit the mother-in-law draping a red blanket around my lower portions than get involved in this event.  There is no interest among bookmakers, punters, exchange players or yours truly less than five hours before the meeting starts.  I’m not the only one swerving the contest…

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract and we can only hope next year’s renewal offers a more interesting event.

 

5.10: I gave Round The Island a chance only a few days ago and though Richard Whitaker’s raider failed to respond to my kind words about his ability, Richard has made a habit of surprising people at these northern tracks down the years and this could be another example of his skill. I’m not in the habit of chasing losses (never have been – never will be) but this finale will take next to no winning whereby I’m offering the dual course and distance winner a reprieve.  That said, I’m aware that seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5 to victory which suggests that The Amber Fort could also outrun the odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won four of the last eight contests, with a top priced winner emerging at 11/1 during the period.

Each way selection: Round The Island

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

There are no Nursery races today – Service will be back on Monday to cover the 2.20 & 4.20 (relevant) races at Leicester alongside updated stats for this season.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Southwell this afternoon:

45 races – 21 winning favourites – 43/45 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Dan Skelton (9/4, 11/8*, 5/6* & 10/11*) – 6 runners today: One For Billy (2.50), Too Many Diamonds (3.25), Zebi Boy (3.55), Sheelbewhatsheelbe (4.25), Baron Von Chill (5.00) & King’s Reste (5.30)

 

Over the next few days I will be offering some stats/facts for some of the York races at the Ebor meeting which are not generally covered by the press/media/Internet contributors, not nearly as much as some of the other races for sure:

WEDNESDAY:

Group 3 Acomb Stakes (scheduled for 2.25):

Although five of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 (three successful market leaders), the other four gold medallists scored at 10/1, 11/1 & 16/1 (twice).

 

Five trainers who have saddled winners during the last 30 years have potential runners in the race:

3 winners—Mark Johnston (2004/2002/1995) has two entries

2 winners—William Haggas (2015 & 2011) has one entry

2 winners—Kevin Ryan (2016 & 2005) – one entry

1 winner—Charlie Hills (2014) has three options

1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (2000) has two entries

 

Nursery event (scheduled for 4.50):

Richard Fahey has won three renewals since 2012 and the popular trainers has three potential runners on Wednesday, all of which would be contesting their first Nursery event if offered the green light.

Gabrial The Wire – Won at the third time of asking (Novice event) and went down by two and a half lengths in a Class 2 Conditions race at Chester last time out. Potentially runs from a reasonable mark of 84 by the official assessor.

Eljayeff – Has won last two of four assignments to date.  His mark of 85 is fair enough for what he has achieved.  His sire Bungle Inthejungle has already been responsible for two Nursery victories this term.

Absolute Dream – Yet to win following five assignments.  Dropped to a mark of 80 now despite having already snared gold and silver medals on the Knavesmire from just the two relevant appearances at York.

 

Richard’s previous details regarding his recent winners of this contest:

2016: The Wagon Wheel won on her second start having won a Beverley maiden event at the first time of asking. Beaten on her next five starts following victory in this event.

2015: Mayfair Lady won her previous race having snared silver and bronze medals on her first two starts.  Beaten in her next two, she returned as a three-year-old to score on her seasonal debut.

2012: Mary’s Daughter had previous won on her second start, followed victory in this race with no wins from ten subsequent assignments.

 

I guess the negative ‘Fahey factor’ this year is that all three horses are colts, as opposed to Richard’s trio of winning fillies mentioned above.

 

General stats: Only one favourite has scored during the last nine renewals during which time, eight winners carried a maximum burden of 9-2 albeit to quote just the last three contests, horses from that sector of the handicap supplied 90.7% of the total number of runners.

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