Jul 05

Daily Analysis – Thursday 5th

NEWBURY – JULY 5

 

Don’t forget to scroll down to by Nursery sector today for the first two-year-old handicap race of the season!

 

  • Please note a slightly reduced service today due to continued sickness – which is hopefully compensated by the new Nursery coverage…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2016: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 9/1 or less

2014: 0/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2013: 2/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

32 races – 6 winning favourites – 29/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

No clear trainer held sway though if we offer ‘Team Hannon’ collectively, they produced three winners (8/1, 11/8* * 11/10*) during the study period.  Richard (Junior) saddles eight at Newbury this evening: On A Roll (5.40), Posted & Cool Kitty (6.20), Ritchie Valens, London Rock & The Paddocks (6.45) & Blachfleur & Letsbe Avenue (8.55)

Leading represented trainers this season:       

5/15—William Haggas (Four winning favourites + 9/4) – 2 runners: Ascended (6.1%) & Nicklaus (8.55)

2/2—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 9/4) – 2 runners: Celestial Force (7.15) & Punkawallah (8.25)

 

RACE BY RACE ANALYSIS AT NEWBURY:

5.40: ICONIC KNIGHT has to be of interest from my viewpoint, with DREAMBOAT ANNIE offered up as saver material from an each way angle.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following three renewals thus far.

Win selection: Iconic Knight

Each way option: Dreamboat Annie

 

6.15: Ralph Beckett spoke of his Siyouni filly pre-season in this positive manner; “She was an expensive purchase who will probably prove to be well bought”.  Although this looks a warm event, SCINTILATING is the call accordingly albeit whatever she achieves today for ‘Highclere’ , there will be plenty more left to come, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Win selection: Scintilating

 

6.45: The Paddocks sets the standard via his debut success but that said, he was struggling to early on his latest Royal Ascot outing to back with any degree of confidence here.  Withdrawn from a race at Yarmouth last week, James Street might be the win and place route to take though the chances are that my pennies will remain safely tucked away.

Favourite factor: Last year’s favourite failed to follow in the successful hoofsteps of the inaugural favour that scored at 11/8 the previous year.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—The Paddocks (good to firm)

 

7.15: KING LUD has an each way (bet to nothing) look about him in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  This is his handicap debut and though there are only two places are up for grabs in this ‘short field’ event, I believe it’s worth adding the extra stake to (hopefully) ensure a return of some description.  That said, it’s worth noting that Tom Dascombe has won with both runners that he has sent down to Newbury so far this season whereby the chance of Celestial Force is respected alongside Sleeping Lion.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from an each way perspective, albeit to one quarter odds a place as opposed to one fifth in general terms.

Favourite factor: We have to search back eight years to find the only successful favourite in this event during the last decade.

Each way selection: King Lud

 

7.50: Ladbrokes and Coral were out on something of a limb at the time of writing by offering RESTLESS ROSE at 4/1 at the time of writing. Sylvestre De Sousa’s mount has only contested four assignments and trainer Stuart Williams can be congratulated for finding an ideal race for his filly at a Grade 1 venue.  Four-year-olds have won both races to date if you are looking for an additional reason to back Rose Berry.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Each way selection: Restless Rose

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Madame Bounty (good to firm)

 

8.25: It strikes me having got this far down the card that win and place calls are dominating the meeting and another horse to fit that bill tonight is OURMULLION at around the 5/1 mark.  The danger could prove to be Tom Dascombe’s norther raider Punkawallah, this being the second of Tom’s pair of travellers to Newbury this evening.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals.

Each way selection: Ourmullion

 

8.55: The current 7/4 quote about Courtside could prove to be something of catch as David Dimsock’s raider is the only horse for money in the finale at 8.00 this morning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for last year’s 4/1 market leader which failed to emulate the previous winner that struck for the majority of punters at odds of 4/5.

Win selection: COURTSIDE

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/2—Ragstone View (good to firm)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

NURSERY SECTOR:

3.00 Haydock:

High Horse – Clive Cox (Clive’s Nursery record last year: 3/16)

Finoah – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Luchador – Archie Watson (1/14)

Dancing Speed – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Solesmes – Mick Channon (10/59)

Triple One – Michael Bell (1/10)

Five Helmets – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Ventura Bay – Richard Fahey (14/156)

Leoube – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Bouncin Back – Nigel Tinkler (4/27)

Juniors Fantasy – Tim Easterby (3/62)

Tobeornottobee – Declan Carroll (1/8)

 

Viewpoint offered last weekend:

Tom Dascombe trained the successful 2/1 favourite in last year’s inaugural contest with Tom holding three entries this time around.

Five Helmets was fourth at 25/1 last time out having previously been beaten just four lengths in a Windsor contest.  Stable companion Finoah might do better of the pair with Richard Kingscote already showing preference though by the look of things, Richard is undecided on his options as he is also potentially booked aboard Dark Thunder which is my idea of the pick of the trio at the time of writing.

Tom’s latter named April foal was third in Chester’s ‘Lily Agnes’ on his second start and it’s worth noting that Tom still has two big race entries at the back end of the season for this individual who has been given a handicap mark of 77.

Tom saddled nine Nursery winners last year and his record with two-year-old handicappers at Haydock was 1/4.

Viewpoint now:

Tom Dascombe has offered the green light to his first named pair mentioned in dispatches though rather surprisingly, Stable jockey Richard Kingscote has been booked aboard Five Helmets which is rated ten pounds inferior to his stable companion.

That said, this is what handicaps are all about of course with the official assessor attempting to land a twelve runner dead heat in the contest!

Out of interest, Tom has side-lined Dark Thunder for another day, with the two big races towards the back end still on his agenda.

Other than Tom’s raiders, I expect High Horse and Solesmes to give investors a decent run for their collective monies.

 

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