Oct 01

Daily (Bath) analysis – Monday 1st



2.10: Archie Watson has enjoyed a fabulous season with his Nursery runners, his two-year-old handicap representatives having done the yard proud with stats of 10/23 (16 points of level stake profit) to date.  Archie has offered the green light to Comete this time around though his wide draw is a negative factor for sure.  That said, Oisin Murphy’s mount is blinkered for the first time which might bring about further improvement to negate that scenario, to a fashion at least.  Within wishing to state the obvious at all, the likes of Pont Vert and Michaels Choice appear to be the obvious dangers from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions to date.


2.45: There is semi-serious money lurking in the wings for Kasbah at the time of writing and with precious little else to work with in this event, Amanda Perrett’s Acclamation gelding gets the tentative call with a half decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  Little Palaver has the benefit of the plum draw in trap one which could enable Clive Cox’s raider to reward each way investors in a race that will not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far with last year’s successful 5/4 market leader being the first to snare gold.


3.15: Mark Johnston (stats of 8/19 at the track this season) has a chance to snare a few winners at Bath today while the cat is away (Mick Channon (10/17 – no runners today) whereby Mark’s pair of newcomers Themaxwecan and Anyonecanhaveitall are expected to pay the diesel bill, one way or another.  That said, Gentle Look has an obvious favourite’s chance from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Bath card.


3.50: Richard Hannon’s consistent course winner Fanfare should give investors another decent run for their collective monies, whilst Cottingham and Go Fox are other win and place types to consider in an ordinary contest.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Bath programme.


4.20: Six of the seven winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 whereby the likes of Secret Potion and Archimedes are short listed and offered in order of preference at the time of writing.  Robert Winston’s mount Secret Potion has finished ‘in the three’ five times from ten assignments at this venue, winning on two occasion.  A trap two position looks to have given the four-year-old Stimulation gelding a definite each way chance in this grade/company.  Union Rose is another to consider given that he makes his first appearance in this low grade (Class 6) handicap this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Only three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame as we still await the first successful market leader to strike from a win perspective from as many races.  Indeed, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1 and 20/1 (twice).


4.55: Betfair and Paddy Power to be out on a limb with their 12/1 quotes about Filament Of Gold today, with Roy Bortherton’s raider as short as 7/1 in a place.  I would expect a return of around 17/2 personally whereby 12/1 certainly offers some value from my perspective.  Kirkland Forever is not without support on the exchanges in the dead of night however, which comes as no surprise.

Favourite factor: Yet another new trace on the card.


5.30: Oisin Murphy has a few chances on the card, one of which is Unbridled Spirit for sure in this weak contest.  Coachella is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The last two races on the card (two divisions of the same event) are also new events this afternoon.


6.00: Silverturnstogold could end Oisin Murphy’s day on a winning note for trainer Tony Carroll.  Tony saddled no less than thirteen winners in September which is a great return for his yard, whilst boasting stats of 6/19 here at Bath this term.

Favourite factor: The last two races on the card (two divisions of the same event) are also new events this afternoon.


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