Sep 25

Daily (Beverley) analysis – Tuesday 25th

BEVERLEY – SEPTEMBER 25:

 

2.10: Melgate Magic could (I repeat could) initiate a first/last race double for Mick Easterby, though the 10/1 quote in the trade press for the Harbour Watch gelding looks well wide of the mark in the dead of night.  11/2 looks too big about the tentative selection with Betfair/Paddy Power at the time of writing. I called a Kevin Ryan newcomer the right way on Monday at 9/2 (East won at 9/4) whereby plenty of respect of offered to fellow debutant Power Rush from the yard.

Favourite factor:  Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite passed the post but was relgated behind the 5/2 winner.

 

2.45: The eight runners which have already gained experience look nothing out of the ordinary whereby Mark Johnston’s Slade Power newcomer War Chariot has to be of some interest. The sire won on four of his first six assignments, finishing second on the other two occasions and Joe Fanning’s mount looks sure to become competitive at the business end of proceedings in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite finished out of the frame.

 

3.20: 15 of the last 17 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates six horses if you take the stats seriously, taking one jockey claim into account.  Meanwhile, trainers have missed out on an edge as three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  Equiano Springs, Keepup Kevin and Archie all possess claims at each way prices from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Winning favourites during the last decade are only conspicuous by their absence, though seven gold medallists have scored at priced ranging between 7/2 and 9/1.

 

3.55: Only two four of the eight runners are officially rated in three figures, compared to three twelve months ago. Orvar (Paul Midgley) and Copper Knight (Tim Easterby) represent the only two trainers to have saddled the winner of this event during the last ten years. This pair might interest readers from a small stake perspective, especially at the odds on favourite in the trade press is odds against on the exchanges as I pen this column.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won via 20 renewals to date, whilst 14 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.30:  Serious rivals to the recent facile Pontefract winner Detachment appear to be thin on the ground whereby Les Eye’s raider can score for the second time at Beverley.  The soft ground will not have caused a sleepless night for connections which another positive factor.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.

 

5.00: This is by far the most open of the two divisions of this event though that said, David Loughnane will be hoping for a winner with his only runner on the card with Stringybank Creek.  David secured a 373/1 double on the corresponding card two years ago and the trainer has definite prospects of celebrating another gold medallist this afternoon.  Another to consider is Collingham Park who returns after wind surgery.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the previous race on the card. Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.

 

5.30: A tough looking event despite the lack of runners.  I was going to swerve the contest until I noted Paul Hanagan’s ratio of 4/15 this season for Charlie Hills, whereby Athary is the marginal call.

Favourite factor:  This is another new race on the Beverley programme.

 

6.00: A very reliable source ‘oop north’ suggests that John Caesar can go close and I tend to agree with him, especially given the fact that Rebecca Bastiman’s raider won this race last year when carrying an additional six pounds.  A good draw adds interest to this dual course winner, whilst the (soft) ground is the same as it was at the meeting twelve months ago.  The said, the 7/1 quote about Ventura Crest from 365 & BetVictor at the time of writing catches the eye in no uncertain terms.

Favourite factor:  Seven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite favourite prevailed.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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