Sep 26

Daily (Goodwood) analysis – Wednesday 26th

GOODWOOD – SEPTEMBER 26

 

2.00: It’s interesting to note that despite Charlie Appleby having saddled the last two winners of this event, Charlie is not represented today.  Indeed, Charlie has only sent twelve runners to Goodwood this season, even though three of his inmates won their respective races.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Pablo Escobarr should improve the decent ratio of favourites (see stats below) in the opening event, though I would not go near a 4/7 chance which is contesting its fourth race as a maiden personally.  That said, William Haggas boasts seasonal stats of 6/34 at Goodwood which given the competitive nature of the sport on offer here, is not a bad strike rate at all.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the fourteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

 

2.35: I’m not at all sure how many more times we can watch South Seas flatter to deceive, both in the betting ring and in his subsequent races.  Andrew Balding’s raider remains a horse of unquestionable talent but there comes a time for any horse that stops winning when it enters my ‘last chance saloon’ and Andrew’s four-year-old Lope De Vega gelding has just walked through the swinging doors of the bar.

Favourite factor: This is a new race in the Goodwood card.

 

3.05: Nine of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the likes of each way types such as Charming Guest and Swanton Blue.  Sitting two pounds above the ‘superior’ weight barrier sits Lady Dancealot and with Gerald Mosse boasting current figures of 5/14 for trainer David Elsworth, the chance of the three-year-old has to be respected, especially as vintage representatives have won four of the last seven renewals.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last eleven renewals though be warned, because three of the last five gold medallists have scored at 33/1, 20/1 & 14/1.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals (including six of the last eleven) of this Listed event without being represented every year.   Plutonian is the vintage call this year, though Threading is a really interesting contender and not only because he is Mark Johnston’s only runner at Goodwood today, a venue where he has excelled down the years. First sitting is the other potential winner in a fascinating contest from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last nineteen years was returned at just 10/1 (seven years ago).

 

4.10: Codicil was a 14/1 chance when my MMA (Goodwood) service was offered up at 6.00 but all that has gone now, with Sir Mark Prescott’s raider as short as 9/1 in a place.  Mark saddled the runner up last year (beaten favourite – by a neck) and the trainer (and we) obviously hope to go one better this time around!  Graceland finished well beaten in the race last year but shrewd trainer Michael Bell runs his six-year-old again off a four pound lower mark – but carrying seven pounds less than she did twelve months ago.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.  Last year’s 7/2 market leader found one too good, an 11/1 chance from Mark Johnston’s yard.

 

4.40: Although the basic form figures of Master Carpenter do not look inspiring, it could just be that the 5/1 trade press quote will look well over the top by the time that flag fall arrives; win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: This is another new race in the Goodwood programme.

 

5.10: Captain Lars deserves his place at the head of the market and should prove tough to beat again, hailing from Archie Watson’s impressive yard.  Who Told Jo Jo is offered up as the each way speculative option.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won four of the last seven renewals of the finale.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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