Sep 24

Daily (Leicester) analysis – Monday 24th

LEICESTER – MONDAY SEPTEMBER 24:

 

2.20: The coupled best odds (at the time of writing) about the Godolphin pair Global Hero (7/4 with BetVictor) and House Of Kings (3/1 with Betfair & Paddy Power) equates to 8/13 which should provide the winner for those of you who want to go for broke after a decent weekend’s punting.  That’s not my style but if it’s yours, the odds should be landed.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

 

2.50: The second division of the opening event does not look anywhere near as strong (certainly not in depth anyway) whereby Hold Still could be good enough to build on Ascot promise to winning effect.  At 6/5 (the best price on offer in the dead of night) about Faro Angel, I’ll let the race pass without personal intervention.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event. Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

 

3.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13 whereby Lamb Chop and Kodina are short listed.  Gay Kelleway is the only trainer to have saddled two winners during the last decade and the trainer has offered the green light to Johni Boxit.

Favourite factor: The last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1 though that said, favourites have only won two of the last eight renewals.

 

3.50Kick On Kick On might be allowed another chance as his 3/5 ratio on turf makes for impressive reading.  Certainly the 5/1 on offer with Skybet/Unibet/Betfair/Paddy Power/888 makes plenty of appeal from a win and place viewpoint. At 14/1 (generally available), Equimou is offered up as the alternative each way option.

Favourite factor: Three market leaders have obliged via eight contests thus far, the last seven winners having scored at a top price of 11/2 (favourite). Six of the nine favourites in total have finished in the frame.

 

4.20Forest View offers some value at 10/3 (Betfair/Paddy Power) this morning I’ll wager, especially with Outbox looking a bit cramped as an odds on chance with Coral.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

4.50: Horses drawn or high or low have dominated in recent years with four of the last seven winners having been drawn in ‘double figures; whilst the other three gold medallists emerged from traps one and two.  Archie Watson continues to lead the Nursery figures, boasting a tally of 9/19 in the two-year-old handicap sector this term.  Archie saddles his recent Brighton winner Gold Arrow with obvious claims from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ perspective.  3/1 is short enough though those odds might reflect the fact that Archie’s Havana Gold filly won in a decent time on the south coast, whilst being one of the oldest horses in the race, her third birthday is not too far away now that nights are starting to close in.  Showu is taken to reach the frame hovering around the 9/1 mark for those who do not like 3/1 chances in two-year-old handicap events.

Favourite factor: Although only two of the last ten renewals have been won by favourites. Level stake investors have only suffered marginal losses as the two winners were returned at 3/1 and 11/4.  Indeed. Seven of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 11/2.  That said, only two of the last seven market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

5.20: Three-year-olds have just about dominated thus far and Side Effect is slightly preferred to Elation at the time of writing.  That said, four-year-old Kyllachys Tale might take the beating here having finished six lengths clear when narrowly beaten by a well punted Irish raider the last day.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won via three renewals, last year’s event having produced a dead heat.

 

5.50: Three-year-olds have secured six of the last nine contests with four of the last five winners having carried 9-3 or more.  There will be worse 25/1 shots on the card than Summer Angel I’ll wager, whilst others that fit the brief include Lethal Angel (albeit a jockey claim potentially relegates the weight to 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ mark) and 50/1 chance Snooker Jim, whose real chance might be viewed at half of that price according to the gospel of yours truly in a race that has ‘bookmaker’s result’ written all over it.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have won during the last decade.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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