Sep 21

Daily (Newbury) analysis – Friday 21st

NEWBURY – SEPTEMBER 21

1.10True Hero looks the part after a decent debut effort at Windsor though whether 15/8 is a true valuation (35% probability factor) of his chance (7/4 with some firms) remains to be seen.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven contests were won by favourites during which time (apart from one rogue 20/1 gold medallists), the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.

 

1.45Breath Of Air is the horse for money at the time of writing with 9/2 still available, though Hills only have the Charlie Hills raider at 7/2.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race at Newbury whereby the same stats apply; five of the last eleven contests were won by favourites during which time (apart from one rogue 20/1 gold medallists), the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.

 

2.20: The only overnight money came for Communique, whilst offering the sobering message that just two favourites have won during the last eleven years.  That said, ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 9/1.  Three-year-olds have snared five of the last ten renewals which is a pointer towards Communique and (to a fashion) Infrastructure, two of the three junior raiders in the line-up on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Only one market leader has scored during the last ten years, whilst further news is listed above.

 

2.50: Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last three winners of this juvenile event whereby the declaration of Dirty Rascal must be treated with respect, especially given his consistent form this season.  Indeed, ‘Team Hannon’ have saddled a total of eight winners during the last six years at the corresponding meeting which adds confidence to the selection.  Deira Surprise could outrun her 14/1 quote from my viewpoint, especially receiving ten pounds from the colt if Jason Watson can claim all three pounds of his (value for money) allowance.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner scored at 15/2 via just the five renewals to date, with one (4/5) market leader having prevailed thus far.

 

3.25Beat Le Bon is another Richard Hannon raider on the card with obvious claims.  Indeed, an argument could be made that this Richard’s strongest representative of the seven inmates declared on today’s Newbury card.

Favourite factor: Four renewals had slipped by since the last favourite obliged though to be entirely fair, the biggest priced gold medallist during those brief barren years was returned at just 11/2 – before last year’s 13/8 market leader obliged.  Four of the last nine contests have now been snared by favourites of one description or another.

 

3.55: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals and I could have given an each way squeak to Good Effort had all the rain not arrived last night in Bristol, some of which must surely have hit Newbury.  More logical winners from the three-year-old ranks I guess are Nebo and Red Mist

Favourite factor: Although the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1 during the last ten years, only two successful market leaders were registered during the period.

 

4.30: The 5/2 quotes have nearly dried up about the chance of Ice Gala who I pinpointed at 6.15 at that price on my MMA page.  Only 888 are offering those odds and that might not be for much longer I’ll wager.  That said, Fashion’s Star in an interesting newcomer and if holding the 4/1 price on offer nearer flag-fall, Roger Charlton’s newcomer would have to be taken seriously.

Favourite factor: Five of the last seven renewals have been won by market leaders though just as we were beginning to take great results for granted (a 5/2 chance won one of the other two contests), a 25/1 chance upset the applecart last year.

 

5.05: We endured howling winds and lots of rain in Bristol last night and if plenty of the wet stuff went on to fall at Newbury, Bombastic (a beaten favourite on last year’s corresponding card) would make some appeal at around the 16/1 mark. You might like for betting in running as the Ed De Giles raider tends to use up a lot of energy early doors in his races and being stepped up in trip now, such antics would seriously affect his chance of reaching the frame.  Others to consider include Master Carpenter (too big earlier this morning at 14/1 with Marathon from my viewpoint) and Exec Chef.

Favourite factor: only one favourite has prevailed during the last six years, with 16/1 and 14/1 chances being among the decent results for bookmakers of late.

 

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

 

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