Sep 27

Daily (Newmarket) analysis – Thursday 27th

NEWMARKET – THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 27:

1.50 (One mile maiden event for juveniles): Four successful favourites emerged from nine renewals during the last eleven, with eight of the nine scorers having been returned at a top price of 7/1.  Charlie Appleby’s Magic Illusion is marginally preferred to John Gosden’s Kick On this time around.

2.25 (One mile Nursery event): Six of the eight winners thus far have carried 8-12 or more to victory, whilst one winning favourite has been recorded to date.  The last six winners have scored at a top price of 13/2.  There is only one race on today’s card where John Gosden holds just a single entry, whereby Daafr is the call.  For the record, John’s Nursery record over the last five years stands at 12/51, the 23.5% strike rate being perfectly acceptable in the two-year-old handicap sector.

3.00 (Seven furlong event for fillies): Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite only beat one horse home in a seven runner contest, whereby confidence is at a low ebb in what looks to be a far more competitive event.  Crafty Madam, Right Direction and Treasure Me make up my trio against the field, the three horses being listed in marginal order of preference.

3.35 (Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes): ‘Team Hannon’ have saddled four of the last seven winners when represented whereby the chance of Floating Artist is respected.  Richard Hannon (Senior) had never won the race until 2009, yet now ‘Team Hannon’ have secured four victories via the last seven contests in recent times when represented.  The real money overnight however was for Cardini, though win and place money arrived on the exchanges for Arctic Sound in no uncertain terms as well. Investors should note that although eight winners during the last eleven years have scored at a top price of 8/1 (stats include four winning favourites), the other gold medallists were returned at 33/1, 25/1 and 14/1.

4.10 (Listed Two mile Rose Bowl Stakes): John Gosden has saddled four winners and a runner up on the last five occasions when his yard was represented and John has declared two three-year-olds with which to go to war on this occasion, namely Sevenna Star and Ben Vrackie.  Five-year-olds have much the best record in the race of late however, having secured five of the last eight renewals.  If John and his team are to be denied this time around, vintage representative St Michel might prove to be the party-pooper.  Relevant trainer Sir Mark Prescott had a runner well beaten yesterday but not before the horse was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 (one of my MMA horses) and it will not be long before the team retrieve their losses if past results are anything to go by. The last two winners of this event scored at 16/1 and 9/2 following a hat trick of victories for market leaders.

4.45 (Class 2 all aged handicap over 12 furlongs): Both favourites (5/4 & 11/8) have won thus far and although on offer at 9/2 with Hills at the time of writing, my selection Another Eclipse could yet go off as the market leader, albeit at a much bigger price that the previous winners of the contest. There will be worse 14/1 chance on the card than King Lud I’ll wager, with Betfair and Paddy Power arguably offering odds a few points over the top about Andrew Balding’s raider.

5.20 (All aged one mile handicap): Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leaders prevailed though to give the scenario a more balanced view, three of the previous five favourites had scored.  John Butler has been known to pull rabbits out of hats down the years, though usually in lower grade races compared to this Class 3 event.  That said, there is money overnight for his 10/1 chance Yuften and in a race that would otherwise have offered no interest to yours truly, a small each investment has been placed with Hills who might find their offices busy this morning from would be investors.  Oisin Murphy’s mount (interesting booking – only his second ride for the trainer) looks more like a 7/1 chance from my viewpoint.

5.55 (Newmarket Challenge Whip): Four favourites have won during the last nine years though in an uncompetitive event such as this, that ratio is not as great as it sounds.  I don’t have a selection to offer as such, though Endlessly and Mauri Bob are offered up as types to give you a reasonable run for your collective monies if you feel you must get involved, hopefully via winnings accrued on the day rather than your own cash.

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