Sep 23

Daily (Plumpton) analysis – with official going report

Going – “Good” (good to soft in places) – drizzle will probably continue to fall until early afternoon – could produce some heavier bursts…

 

PLUMPTON – SEPTEMBER 23

 

2.20: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via less than 36% of the total number of runners thus far.  Indeed, vintage representative have won three from four really, as no four-year-olds contested the race two years ago.  Unfortunately this year’s pair of four-year-olds do not look up to the mark whereby I would opt (tentatively) for High Command.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (2/1, Evens & 1/3) winners.

 

2.55: East Indies won this contest last year and was a winner on the corresponding card in 2016 whereby the treble is on the cards today, providing not too much raid adds to the wet stuff which fell in the region yesterday.  Sophie Leech has a few decent chances on the card, start8ng with Garo De Juilley who as punted overnight.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders (via three renewals) have finished in the frame, including one of the two 10/3 joint favourites in the inaugural year which won the relevant contest, before last year’s 11/4 favourite obliged.

 

3.25: My stats are offered for you to peruse but when it comes to seven-year-olds dominating contests, I too am sceptical in terms of the worth of the figures.  When horses turn five I tend not to take the results too seriously though it’s still worth reporting that seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals of this event.  Today’s trio of vintage representatives are around the 11/8 mark to extend the ratio, the pick of which appear to be More Than Luck and Orchestrated.  More money (some has already been noted) for Between The Waters would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals had slipped by since the last favourite prevailed during which time, every market leader had failed to finish in the frame – before last year’s 7/4 jolly prevailed in a win only contest.

 

4.00: Alan King has saddled three of the last ten winners (includes two of the last three renewals) and it will be interesting to see if his raider Royal Household can score today as his last two winners of the contest went on to win next time out as well, whilst the other snared a subsequent/relevant silver medal.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last eleven during which time, ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1.  Last year’s contest offered more sobering news as both of the 9/4 joint favourites finished out of the (short field) frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

 

4.30: The last four winners (of five in total) have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 which eliminates half of the dead eight declarations if you take the stats seriously.  Anteros gets into the positive mix despite a claimer aboard and Sophie Leech’s ten year old (senior statesman) could represent value for money at 9/1 with Skybet/Betfair/Paddy Power) this morning.  Ian Williams celebrated yet another four winner haul on a Saturday yesterday and his seven-year-old Yeats gelding Psychedelic Rock should emerge as the main threat to the speculative selection.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites (via five renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include four successful market leaders of one kind or another.

 

5.00: Six-year-olds have won the last four renewals when represented, albeit via 44% of the total number of runners in the respective events.  Just two (outsiders) have been declared this time around, with Robin De Broome seemingly superior to Chasing Headlights.  If the sequence is to end today, Top Chief would be the call.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have won during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 7/1.  Seven of the last eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

5.35: Available at 14/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power in the dead of night, Scrutinise would be of interested if money started to come for Richard Johnson’s mount.  I would not become involved in the race if that scenario fails to evolve.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have reached the frame, stats which include the inaugural 11/4 winner.

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