Oct 03

Daily (Salisbury) analysis – Wednesday 3rd

SALISBURY – OCTOBER 3

1.40: Murray River was worth some small change at 7/1 with Hills this morning, though that value has now dried up.  John Gosden’s Australia colt enters my last chance saloon however, though some might suggest that this is a harsh call, given that Kieran O’Neill’s mount tackles only his third assignment.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.10: This mile event was probably the shortest trip that Ralph Beckett was going to consider for his Dalakhani newcomer Stormwave who offered some potential value at 12/1 with Paddy Power this morning at the time of writing.  Whether those odds will retract or drift at this moment in time remains to be seen, whereby you are in a better position than yours truly to make a judgment nearer flag fall.  Military Move is another interesting newcomer.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the programme.

 

2.45: Knightshayes looked a tad overpriced at 9/1 with Skybet and BetVictor from my viewpoint an hour or so ago, with the February foal having won at 33’s on debut on a decent surface.  Paul George’s inmate ran well enough under a penalty on officially soft ground at Ffos Las though at that venue, soft going can be pretty testing.  A return to this better surface should bring about another decent effort.  Hermocates is an interesting Hannon newcomer.  Richard’s March foal was due to run at Newbury the other week but was withdrawn because of the ‘unsuitable ground’.  There should be no such worry on that score today.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/4 favourite finished out of the (short field) frame at odds of 5/4).  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

 

3.15: As a half brother to several winners, Jack D’Or makes some appeal, especially as trainer Ed Walker has his inmates going well just now.  Although only one of his last half a dozen horses has actually won, the others have not been beaten far whereby Liam Keniry’s mount is respected at least in a race which might not take a great deal of winning.  Further up the betting, Clara Peeters should prove difficult to knock out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the third event on the programme.

 

3.50: Tin Hat and Autumn Splendour could both backed at 7/1 as I penned this column and in a race which otherwise fails to set the pulse racing, I would not be too surprised if the winner emerged from this pair.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst market leaders have a very record from a Placepot perspective during the study period, even though five of the last seven ‘jollies’ have finished out with the washing.  Last year’s 9/4 joint favourites finished second and third behind the 15/2 winner in another short field contest.

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed eight of the last fifteen available Placepot positions via 40% of the total number of runners.  Seven of the last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1 and putting the facts and stats together produces a short list of the trio of junior representative who all possess ticks in the handicap boxes, namely Blackheath, Mutanaaseq and Beyond Equal.

Favourite factor: Market leaders are only conspicuous by their absence in terms of winners of this race during the last twelve years, whilst just four of those twelve favourites secured Placepot positions. Indeed, five of the relevant gold medallists during the study period were returned in double figures, ranging between 11/1 & 20/1.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/1—Mujassam (7/40)

1/1—Smokey Lane (2/23)

1/3—Beyond Equal (2/6)

1/3—Blackheath (1/8)

 

4.55: As a winner of five of his twelve assignments this year, Summerghand will have earned his rest during the winter months, though hopefully not before he has not increased his tally to half a dozen this afternoon.  The official assessor has granted David O’Meara’s raider a two pound drop which could make the difference between winning and losing in an interesting event.  If Harry Bentley’s mount has gone over the top for the season, I would expect to Rogue to make the most of the advantage.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/1—Rogue (3/12)

2/2—Pettochside (10/67)

 

5.25: May Remain was a 12/1 chance with Paddy Power which I could not resist, especially with the decent three pound claimer Rossa Ryan in the plate.  The young pilot rode a 16/1 winner for Paul Cole the other day and the trainer has been quick to poach him for just his fourth ride for the yard.  89 winners in all to date, Rossa remains good value for his claim.  Mike Murphy has saddled his last two runners to winning effect whereby his pair of entries here should be respected, namely Rio Ronaldo and Kodiac Express.

Favourite factor: Another new race to close out the card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/10—Waseem Faris (7/86)

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (5/36)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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