SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 19
1.40: Some housekeeping to attend to before I commence play as 37/43 winners at this correspond meeting during the last six years have won at a top price of 9/1, stats which include no less than 17 successful favourites! Four of the five winners of the opening event have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 thus far, stats which eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap if you believe in trends which by now (after 18 years of daily advice), you should do! The pick of the relevant ‘survivors’ will hopefully prove to be Saaheq. Operative is offered up as the alternative each way option.
Favourite factor: Five favourites to date and we have only witnessed one finishing in the frame! That said, all five winners have, at least, been returned in single figures (9/1, 7/1, 5/1, 4/1 & 7/2).
2.10: Providing that the William Haggas raider Dalaalaat can give away ‘months’ successfully here, the Kingman colt should go close, if his May 16 foaling date does not go against him, particularly with so many in form yards involved.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.
2.35: Charlie Appleby has won with his last three runners and looks to hold the call here having declared his New Approach colt Good Fortune to potentially winning effect. Double Kodiac is considered next best unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Noble Mission newcomer Laafy is anything out of the ordinary.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 favourite duly obliged before the subsequent pair of market leaders failed to follow suit.
3.15: Seven of the nine recent winners of this Listed event have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three-year-olds have claimed five of the last seven contests.
The pick of the junior representatives on this occasion should prove to be Wadilsafa from the Owen Burrows yard which saddled a winning favourite at last year’s corresponding meeting. Four-year-old Archtype represents Simon Crisford who has won with three of his last four runners, meriting the alternative vote accordingly.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via nine renewals during the last eleven years. Seven of the eleven favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far.
3.50: Ten of the last thirteen winners of this Class 4 handicap event for fillies have carried a maximum weight of 8-13, including three gold medallists which were returned at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1. Miss Mumtaz and Daybreak (listed in order of preference) are offered up as win and place types given the stats and facts available.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have won at 7/2, 3/1 & 15/8 alongside a 6/1 co favourite during the last thirteen years though that said, the last five jollies have finished out of the frame.
4.20: The last eleven winners have carried 8-12 or more to victory which bodes well for my 11/2 MMA ‘selection’ Whitlock at 6.14 this morning. Half an hour later, John Gosden raider is as short as 4/1 and as reported on my Twitter page this morning, every minute counts! Such moves do not guarantee returns obviously but beating the book is so important at this time of the morning. Andrew Balding held five options for this meeting at the weekend but only saddles the one runner in the cold light of day, Dawn Dancer being the horse is question in this event.
Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 though just two successful market leaders were registered during the period. Seven of the last eleven favourites have snared Placepot positions.
4.55: Three-year-olds have won all three contests to date which is par for the course in mixed vintage events; hence I’m opting for Hyperactive who is James Fanshawe’s only runner on the card, the trainer boasting a recent ratio of 29% strike rate via four winners, stats which have produced 14 points of level stake profits.
Favourite factor: Although the inaugural 3/1 favourites obliged two years ago. Both of last year’s market leaders failed to reach the frame in the two relevant divisions of the contest.
5.25: Mystic Meg is likely to be a popular order in the finale and I doubt the SP will match (or better) the 7/2 quote which was available overnight until around 5.30 this morning. Accordingly, I reported a 10/3 price for MMA purposes.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.