Oct 02

Daily (Sedgefield) analysis – Tuesday 2nd

SEDGEFIELD – OCTOBER 2

 

2.00: Twelve of the 21 races at Sedgefield this season have been won by favourites and the trade press market leader Compatriot could continue the trend, with Olly Murphy sending his first runner to the track this season, the trainer having saddled two winners from just eight runners here thus far in total.  The chance of Smart Leader has to be taken into consideration however, especially as the twelve-year-old carries the thick end of a stone less than when he last won a race back in November of 2016.

Favourite factor: The opening event is a new race on the Sedgefield card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/8—Mitcd (2/13)

1/2—Smart Ruler (4/43)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won both renewals to date and with the first three horses in the market representing the vintage on this occasion, its long odds on that the treble will be landed.  Irish raider Thosedaysaregone represents a trainer who boasts a 1/3 ratio at the track thus far and the gelding has been found a great opportunity in this grade/company.  Maurice Barnes has already landed a couple or surprise victories at Sedgefield this season via 18/1 and 14/1 chances whereby I guess there will be worse 33/1 types (available at Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor) on the card than newcomer Regarde Moi, albeit the ten-year-old jumps obstacles in public for the first time!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 market leader was flanked on both sides by 3/1 second favourites when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest two years ago, before last year’s jolly scored at odds of 9/4.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.05: The stand out race on the card by a country mile, this Novice Chase event is the type of contest to warm us up nicely for the two day Cheltenham meeting which is staged on the last weekend of this month.  Owners of the four runners in this race can only dream of such heady heights but nonetheless, Caid Du Lin won well enough on his debut over the bigger obstacles at Worcester the last day, notwithstanding Richard Newlands 7/16 stats in September.  Only an accident should stop Dear Sire from claiming the runner up prize.

Favourite factor: One of the two 9/4 joint favourites finished in the frame (without winning) in the inaugural contest, though detectives are still out looking for last year’s 13/8 market leader.

 

3.35: Although only five runners have been declared, this is a tough puzzle to solve which has not been helped by witnessing overnight support for the outsider of the field, namely Red Ochre.  After going through something of a lean spell, Keith Dalgleish has saddled his last two runners to winning effect and given the course record of his raider here, my tentative preference in the contest is stable representative Mixboy.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Sedgefield card.

Course winner (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/4—Mixboy (3/11)

 

4.10: Much the same as in the previous event on the card, this five runner event will take some sorting and no mistake.  Oak Vintage might take advantage of returning to the bigger obstacles after a fairly lame display over timber at Kelso last time out.  Ever So Much is taken as the main threat.

Favourite factor: This is yet another new contest on the Sedgefield programme.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/7—Brave Spartacus (8/47)

3/10—Oak Vintage (3/15)

3/12—Ever So Much (7/34)

 

4.45: The second of Dr Richard Newland’s runners on the card is his ex-Irish newcomer C’Est Le Bonheur and I would be a tad disappointed if Sam Twiston-Davies failed to steer the Laveron gelding into the area reserved for the winner after the finale.  Richard boasts a 32% strike rate down the years at Sedgefield (8/25), with the thick end of six points accrued from a level stake perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

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