Oct 04

Daily (Warwick) analysis – Thursday 4th

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WARWICK – THURSDAY 4TH OCTOBER

2.10: Six-year-olds would have come into the race on a hat trick, though no trainer was (seemingly) aware of the potential ‘edge’ this time around.  General Custer looked a tad big at 11/2 with Hills/BetVictor this morning, without wishing to ‘lump on’ if you catch my drift.  Topofthecotswolds looks the horse to beat, though I tend to do better when backing the Twiston-Davies horses when they are on offer at each way prices.

Favourite stats: The last three favourites have won following the demise of the inaugural 1/6 market leader under Tony McCoy!  It wasn’t all plain sailing when AP was in the saddle; lest we forget…

 

2.45: Five-year-olds have won all four contests to date, with vintage representatives at 4/5 to extend that tally before the form book is taken into account.  The race looks to have a ‘bookmakers result’ about it and the 18/1 offer about Casemates Square was accommodated to ‘loose change’ in the dead of night.

Favourite stats: The reverse scenario to the opening race on the card as the first three favourites won before last year’s 3/1 market leader never threatened to get involved in the contest before finishing nearer last than first.

 

3.15: It’s not too often that you find a Dan Skelton runner offered as the ‘outsider of three’ but that is the prospect regarding Desirable Court this afternoon.  Dan’s 7/21 record at the track this season might tempt some people to have a bet on the race that they might otherwise have swerved.  I haven’t played as yet but if the five-year-old drifts to 7/1 or more over the next hour or two, I might just get involved, albeit to minimum stakes.

Favourite stats: This is a new race on the Warwick card and judging by the lack of contenders at the first time of asking, the ‘Beginners Chase’ might not be renewed twelve months from now. On officially good ground, the lack of runners defies belief.

 

3.50: Voodoo Doll makes some appeal at around the 7/2 mark this morning, especially as trainer Evan Williams boasts a 2/3 record at Warwick this term, albeit it’s early days in the season.

Favourite stats: Lass year’s inaugural 3/1 joint favourites finished immediately behind the 7/2 winner in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward investors from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

4.20: 15/2 made for half decent reading this morning about the chance of Chirico Vallis, though the opportunity of winning this event depends largely on his jumping which needs to sharpen up, especially when the heat is on over the closing fences.  Templehills is arguably the horse to beat but does one victory from his last six assignments (a shabby affair at Fakenham) reflect an early morning price of 7/4 with Coral and Bet365?

Favourite stats: This is another new contest on the Warwick programme.

Record of the course winner (stats in brackets relates to other venues):

1/4—Templehills (4/11)

 

4.55: A tight finale that makes little appeal from a betting perspective or at least it would have but for the general quote of 11/2 about Solstalla.  Much depends on how the afternoon has gone before I take the plunge – or abstain.

Favourite stats: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite had to give best to 10/1 shot Man Of Crystal who attempts the double this afternoon.

Record of the course winner (stats in brackets relates to other venues):

1/3—Milan Of Crystal (4/27) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

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