Desmond Stakes (Group 3) – Leopardstown 7:30

Race RAG status: Amber

Primary Trends

The last 8 winners were all distance winners

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 3 or 4

7 of the last 8 winners were priced no bigger than 5/1(2/1,8/11,5/4,4/5,20/1,5/1,5/2,30/100)

7 of the last 8 winners were running within 43 days

Shortlist

Beethoven

Akdarena

Emulous

Secondary Trends

6 of the last 8 favourites finished in the first 2

6 of the last 8 winners had 3 or more runs that season

6 of the last 8 winners came from stall 4

The last 5 winners were officially rated 105+

Selection

Two lovely fillies take on the favourite Beethoven in this.

The Aiden O’Brien trained son of Oratorio has been running at the highest level this term, finishing 4 1/2l and 4l behind Canford Cliffs in both his outings. Now dropped in grade, i find it interesting that, despite Johnny Murtagh being at the track, the trainer allows son James O’brien to keep the ride on Beethoven.He is also drawn in the ‘lucky’ stall  4.

Emulous found the horse-racing.ie/trends tipped Latin Love to good at the Curragh on Irish Oaks day and has a rating of 103, whereas the Trend criteria is 105.She could give the selection the most to think about as the owner, trainer, jockey and stallion combination took this last year.

Akdarena is the only runner to tick all the Primary Trend boxes. This daughter of  Hernanado looks to have had a long season so far, but don’t be put off as 2008 winner Carribean Sunset and She’s Our Mark in 2007 both had run the same 6 times as Jim Bolgers trained filly.Back in Group 3 company, after not disgracing herself in both Irish and English Oaks, this should be find Akdarena back to her best over this shorter trip. It will be interesting to see if she tries to make all.Available at the time of writing at 9/4 in places while one big firm has her at 6/4.

Aiden O’brien (Beethoven) has run five 3yo’s in the last 8 years having just one winner, while Dermot Weld (Emulous) has run three 3yo’s with them all winning.

Tony McCormick