Galway Trends 2010 – Members’ Page

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Saturday 31st July 2010

2.55 Freshways Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) 2m 5f

Race RAG Status: GREEN

Primary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners were running within 5 days

6 of the last 7 winners were officially rated 97+

Just 1 winning favourite in 8 years (02140303)

Though 5 of the last 7 favourites finished in the first 4

Of the last 24 win and place positions, 20 horses were aged from 5 -7

6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 5 and 7

Shortlist

Conclave, Baizically, King Of Redfield, Sunwake,.

Secondary Trends

6 of the last 8 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1 (12/1, 13/2, 5/1, 4/1, 14/1, 9/1)

6 of the last 8 winners had run on the flat earlier in the season

6 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 3 at 2m2f+

Selection(s)

From the shortlist, the only runner to have had a flat outing this season is Sunwake. He was third behind Hoopy in a race that many of the shortlist ran in on Wednesday is the selection.

Of those who didn’t run on the flat this year, Conclave is a two time Galway winner but she looks held by the handicapper currently; and, the shorter trip here is probably not ideal for King Of Redfield, who might get outpaced.

But Baizically looks to be running into form and the trip might just suit him and the selection best of those on the shortlist.


4.00 Low Low Handicap (3yo+) 7f

Race RAG Status: GREEN

Primary Trends

The last 8 winners had finished in the first 2 earlier in the season

7 of the last 8 winners were running within 14 days

7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

7 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 2 at 7f+

7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 81+

Shortlist

Ask Jack, Little Arrows (rated 79).

Secondary Trends

6 of the last 8 winners had run 4 or more times that season

7 of the last 8 winners had an SP of 7/1+ (16/1, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1, 7/1, 12/1, 10/1)

2 of the last 4 winners had won earlier in the week at Galway

No winning favourite in 8 years (03004003)

Selection(s)

Ask Jack won well for the shortlist on Tuesday and, as a six-time runner this season, with a middle draw, he has a favourite’s chance. The problem with this race is that the favourite has underperformed in recent history, albeit typically in bigger fields than the dozen who line up this time.

Little Arrows is rated a couple of pounds lower than the typical winner of this race, but his profile is otherwise unblemished. He was a last time out winner two weeks ago, is well drawn, and has a top jockey aboard.

A small saver on Ask Jack might be prudent too.


Sunday 1st August 2010

3.55 Connacht Tribune Handicap Steeplechase (4yo+) 2m1f

Race RAG Status: GREEN

Primary Trends

The last 8 winners had between 2 and 5 runs that season

The last 8 winners were running within 30 days

7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 117+

7 of the last 8 winners had won at 2m1f or further

7 of the last 8 winners had appeared over hurdles or on the flat that season

Shortlist

Emmpat, Truckers Delight, Valain, Pallasmore, Coscorrig, Arkendale (rated 116).

Secondary Trends

The last 5 winners had their prep run on the flat or over hurdles

5 of the last 8 favourites finished in the first 3 (210033100)

6 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 3 at Galway in their careers

7 of the last 8 winners were single figure prices (9/1, 6/1, 7/1, 6/1, 7/4, 15/2, 7/1)

Age

Runs

Wins

Places (3)

11+

13

3

2

10

17

1

5

9

17

1

2

8

25

2

3

7

13

0

1

6

8

1

3

5

1

0

0

Selection(s)

No horse with a perfect trends profile. Looking at the eight years plus brigade with Galway form in the book, Arkendale comes close, having had his prep over hurdles here on Tuesday, but is rated a pound lower than previous winners.

Truckers Delight should go well again, if over the exertions of his placing a handicap chase here on Friday. And Emmpat is a capable old boy on his day, with plenty of Galway placed form.

Monday 26th July 2010

5.10 hotelmeyrick.ie & ghotel.ie Novice Hurdle (4yo only) 2m

Race RAG Status: GREEN

Primary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners carried between 10-9 and 11-0 (i.e. were not carrying a penalty)

7 of the last 8 winners had their previous run in an INH Flat race or on the flat

7 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 4 at 2m that season

Shortlist

Force Of Habit, Northern Rocker, Paintmaker, Firm Foundations

Secondary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

6 of the last 8 winners had their last run over 24 days ago

6 of the last 8 winners had run in a field of 15+ that season

6 of the last 8 winners had recorded a pre race RPR of 104+ that season

7 of the last 8 winners were single figure prices

5 of the last 7 favourites finished in the first 3 (01311300)

Selection(s)

Northern Rocker had his last run just eleven days ago, which is more recently than most winners in the last eight years. Firm Foundations, the most exposed of the shortlist, has never recorded an RPR better than 103, whereas Force Of Habit (106) and Paintmaker (121) have recorded an acceptable RPR.

Given Dermot Weld’s three wins in the last six years in this race, Force Of Habit gets the nod.

Paintmaker looks a reasonable each way option.

7.00 carlton.ie/galwaycity (Q.R.) Handicap (70-100) (4yo+) 2m

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 4 -6

The last 7 winners had won in fields of 13+ in their careers

6 of the last 7 winners had run between 3 and 6 times that season

6 of the last 8 winners carried between 10-4 and 10-12

No winning favourite in the last 8 runnings (00020200)

Shortlist

Galianna, Sublime Talent, Cyborg, Zarinava

Secondary Trends

5 of the last 8 winners were double figure prices

The last 3 winners were Dermot Weld trained

Selection(s)

It is difficult to be confident in a wide open amateur riders’ race like this. Dermot Weld, winner of the last three renewals, has another strong contender in Sublime Talent.

Of the six year olds, Galianna and former David Elsworth-trained Cyborg look best.

Tuesday 27th July 2010

5.45 Latin Quarter Steeplechase (5yo+) 2m6f

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

The last 8 winners were priced 10/1 or under

The last 8 favourites finished in the first 3 (13213212)

The last 8 winners had all finished in the first 3 on their last appearance in a chase

7 of the last 8 winners were running within 28 days

The last 8 winners had all won at 2m2f+

Shortlist

Killenaule Boy, Decoy Daddy, Invisible Man (last run 32 days ago).

Secondary Trends

6 of the last 8 winners had run 4 or more times that season

6 of the last 7 winners were Irish bred

5 of the last 7 winners had appeared at the previous year’s Galway Festival

4 of the last 5 winners were officially rated 112+

The last 5 winners carried between 11-1 and 11-3

Selection(s)

Although no horse in the whole field has had more than four runs this season, with the single exception of possible trends buster, Classic Frontier, both Killenaule Boy and Decoy Daddy have run three times.

Decoy Daddy is the only Irish bred on the shortlist; is the only shortlisted runner to have appeared at last year’s Galway Festival; is rated 127 (above the 112 threshold); and, doesn’t carry a penalty so has the right weight.


7.00 Topaz Mile E.B.F. Handicap (3yo+) 1m

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

The last 8 winners were running within 40 days

The last 8 winners had finished in the first 2 at a mile in their careers

6 of the last 8 winners finished in the first four last time out

Shortlist

Worldly Wise, Big Robert, If Per Chance, Sixteen Forty Two, Ask Jack, Mujaazef, Castle Bar Sling, Final Flashback, Kaitlins Joy

Secondary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners were priced 10/1 or under

The last 8 winners had finished in the first 3 in a handicap in their careers

6 of the last 8 winners had run between 3 and 7 times that season

6 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 86+

10 of the last 15 win and place positions were drawn 8 or higher

Favourites have finished 44002001

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

Selection(s)

With nine on the shortlist, we’re looking for some assistance from the secondary trends. We lose Worldly Wise and Castle Bar Sling on number of seasonal runs. Reluctantly, we bid adieu to Kaitlins Joy and Final Flashback, both of whom are just beneath the required official rating.

With all of the remaining quintet drawn higher than 8, and the record of Irish bred horses proving hard to ignore, we end up with If Per Chance and Sixteen Forty Two in what is a wide open affair.

Were any of the other trio – Big Robert, Ask Jack, and Mujaazef (trainer won this twice in the last seven years) – to trade at single figure odds, they’d also be of interest here.

Wednesday 28th July 2010

5.25 www.thetote.com Galway Plate Handicap Steeplechase (Grade A) (4yo+) 2m6f

Please note ANSAR won this in both 2004 and 2005

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

6 of the last 8 winners carried between 10-1 and 10-13

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish trained (Paul Nicholls won this in 2008)

7 of the last 8 winners had won at 2m4f+

4 of the last 5 winners had been given an OR of 132+ in the last 12 months

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

6 of the last 8 winners were double figure prices (10/1 x2, 12/1, 16/1, 20/1 & 25/1)

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 to 9

Shortlist

Cuan Na Grai, Dancing Tornado, Finger Onthe Pulse, Majestic Concorde, Montero , Themoonandsixpence

Secondary Trends

5 of the last 7 winners were officially rated 120 – 127

6 of the last 8 winners’ last run was 17 days+

The last 3 winners had won last time out

Favourites have finished 04002010

Selection(s)

With a ‘shortlist’ of six this is not easy. However, favouring those who had at least two and a half weeks off since last running removes Cuan Na Grai, and Montero, both of whom may not yet be over their exertions.

Majestic Concorde ticks all boxes, including a last time out win, BUT… he’s likely to be favourite which doesn’t offer much value in a race like this. Although he’s worth a saver, I’m looking for a bigger price to take a bigger chance.

Dancing Tornado was third in a handicap hurdle here in 2008 and, forgetting a refusal at the last over a mile further in the Irish National, won the time before that. His trainer, Michael Hourigan, is a dab hand with stayers and won this back in 2002.

Finger Onthe Pulse has failed to complete on his last three starts, and must be considered a very dodgy proposition despite being capable with a clear round. Not this day for me.

Themoonandsixpence is a highly progressive sort and, despite only having had two chase runs, looks very handily weighted here. He had excuses when beaten by Cuan Na Grai last time (long layoff, trip too short), and – if his inexperience does not betray him – he’ll run close.

Dancing Tornado (16/1 William Hill) and Themoonandsixpence (10/1 Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler, Coral) each way, with a small saver on Majestic Concorde (5/1 Coral, William Hill).

Thursday 29th July 2010

3.35 Arthur Guinness E.B.F. Fillies Handicap (3yo+) 7f

Race RAG Status: RED

Primary Trends

7 of the last 8 winners had run 3 or more times that season

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 3

7 of the last 8 winners were running within 33 days

Shortlist

Intapeace, Blaze Brightly, Smart Striking, Jeannie Galloway, The Silver Crown, Cheval Rouge (reserve).

Secondary Trends

The last 8 winners have all been drawn 7+

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

7 of the last 8 winners carried 8-11+

7 of the last 8 winners had a pre race RPR of 73+

6 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 2 at 7f in their careers

Favourites have finished 00022300

Longest priced winner was 9/1 in last eight years

Selection(s)

Ignoring the reserve, there’s a quintet on the shortlist. The top two, Intapeace and Blaze Brightly, look to have it all to do from distinctly unfavourable draws (there’s a really tight turn which shoots wider drawn horses away from the shortest route).

The Silver Crown has no form at this distance, and would be the lowest weighted winner in at least a dozen years.

No horse ticks all boxes here, but Smart Striking, despite not being Irish bred, has a plum draw and although carrying a couple of pounds less than the norm looks a solid option.

The other to catch the eye, is Richard Fahey’s British raider, Jeannie Galloway, who – from trap ten – has a live chance.

Possible favourite, Miss Eze, could be lay material. She’s older than the norm and has an absolute nightmare draw in 2. Her apprentice jockey deserves serious acclaim if he can get her home in front here.


4.50 Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) (4yo+) 2m

Please note The Galway Hurdle was promoted to a Grade A race in 2003 (7 runnings)

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

6 of the last 7 winners carried 9-10+

6 of the last 7 winners were running within 34 days

The last 7 winners had won at the distance

4 of the last 5 winners were OR 120+ over hurdles

5 of the last 6 winners had run on the flat that season

5 of the last 7 winners were OR 82+ on the flat

Shortlist

Bahrain Storm, Overturn, New Phase, Fisher Bridge, Grand Opera, Dreamy Gent (res), Gimli’s Rock (res), Alpine Eagle (res).

Secondary Trends

The last 6 winners were Irish bred

5 of the last 7 favourites finished in the first 3 (0102132)

5 of the last 7 winners had an SP of 7/1+

5 of the last 7 winners had finished in the first 3 over hurdles that season

British raiders 0 from 6 in last 7 years (four runners this time)

The last five winners were all 5-7 years old

Selection(s)

Excluding the reserves, all five on the shortlist are Irish bred; and, all five are six or seven years old. Fisher Bridge and Grand Opera have failed to finish in the places in a hurdle this season (both been chasing), which leaves three.

Overturn is the likely favourite, and rightly so on some excellent runs this season. However, the absence of a British winner (albeit from a small number of runners) tempers enthusiasm.

Bahrain Storm won this off a ten pound lower mark last season, and comes here off the back of a win in the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle. If he’s over those exertions, he should run a bold race.

The pick though is New Phase, who is expected to come on a ton for his debut run this season when 4th behind The Fonze, and has a perfect trends profile for ‘Mr Galway’, Dermot Weld.

Friday 30th July 2010

6.15 Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Steeplechase (0-123) (4yo+) 2m6f

Race RAG Status: AMBER

Primary Trends

The last 8 favourites were unplaced

The last 8 winners were Irish trained

7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

6 of the last 8 winners were running within 20 days

6 of the last 8 winners had won at 2m6f+

Shortlist

Tasman, Away We Go, Alfa Beat, Blaze Trailer, Ah Ya Boy Ya, reserve Oscar Glory

Secondary Trends

6 of the last 8 winners were running within 20 days

6 of the last 8 winners had won at 2m6f+

6 of the last 8 winners were double figure prices (16/1, 12/1, 10/1, 16/1, 14/1, 25/1)

Age check

Age

Runs

Wins

Places (4)

11y+

19

1

4

10

21

1

3

9

31

3

3

8

30

0

5

7

35

1

5

6

23

0

4

5

4

2

0

Selection(s)

Excluding the reserve, a shortlist of five. Excluding the two precocious 5yo’s from four starters, it’s interesting to note that six to eight-year-olds are 1 from 88, and are passed over on that basis. [However, they are responsible for 15 of the 32 win and place positions].

Tasman, a course and distance winner here two years ago, was sixth on the opening day and, if those exertions have not taken their toll, he would be a reasonable each way shot.

Of the six- and seven-year-olds on the shortlist, Alpha Beat seems to have really enjoyed the faster ground and could be ahead of the handicapper, but a chance is taken with the lightly weighted Ah Ya Boy Ya (each way), who has a couple of hurdle silver medals from the 2008 Galway Festival, and has been in winning form this Summer.


6.50 Guinness Handicap (3yo+) 1m4f

Please note race run over 1m4f since 2004 after previously been run over 1m6f

Race RAG Status: GREEN

Primary Trends

5 of the last 6 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

5 of the last 6 winners were running within 40 days

5 of the last 6 winners had previously finished in the first 3 at Galway

The last 6 winners had finished in the first 2 at 1m4f+

4 of the last 5 winners were officially rated 80+

Shortlist

Rajik, Gimli’s Rock, Tin Town Boy.

Secondary Trends

4 of the last 6 winners were Irish bred

4 of the last 6 favourites had finished in the first 3 (023301)

Selection(s)

Not much to choose between the shortlisted trio. Tin Town Boy, despite being a course and distance winner, looks too old at nine and possibly on the downgrade. That said, as well as his win here, he has a second, two thirds and a fourth to his name, so clearly loves the place.

Rajik was beaten just a neck in this race last season at 16/1 and looks booked to go close again.

Gimli’s Rock is genuine enough, despite a couple of recent second places, and he won here at last year’s Festival. He also looks primed a solid effort.

Monday 26th July 2010

5.10 hotelmeyrick.ie & ghotel.ie Novice Hurdle 2m

6.20 claregalwayhotel.ie (C & G) E.B.F. Maiden 7f

Tuesday 27th July 2010

5.45 Latin Quarter Steeplechase 2m6f

7.00 Topaz Mile E.B.F. Handicap 1m

Wednesday 28th July 2010

5.25 www.thetote.com

Galway Plate Handicap Steeplechase (Grade A) 2m6f

Thursday 29th July 2010

3.35 Arthur Guinness E.B.F. Fillies Handicap 7f

4.50 Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade A) 2m

Friday 30th July 2010

6.15 Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Steeplechase 2m6f

6.50 Guinness Handicap 1m4f

Saturday 31st July 2010

2.55 Freshways Handicap Hurdle 2m5f

4.00 Low Low Handicap 7f

Sunday 1st August 2010

3.55 Connacht Tribune Handicap Steeplechase 2m1f

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Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)