Irish Oaks day
2.40 Jebel Ali Racecourse and Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3) 6f
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners were all running within 33 days
6 of the last 7 winners finished in the first two last time out
7 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first four in a race at The Curragh
The last 8 winners were Irish trained
Shortlist
Rudolf Valentino, Samuel Morse
Secondary Trends
7 of the last 8 winners were single figure prices
7 of the last 8 winners had run no more than three times that season
6 of the last 7 winners had finished in the first two at 6f
Selection(s)
A very poor turnout here, with just the four runners going to post, and two from the Aiden O’Brien stable. With an unraced Bolger colt and a seven furlong debut winner dropping back in trip in opposition, this looks between the Ballydoyle brace.
Samuel Morse has the form in the book, but is more exposed than his stablemate, Rudolf Valentino, who might very well dance to success here.
Matt Bisogno
3.05 Kilboy Estate Stakes (Listed) (3YO+) 1m1f
NOTE: Race introduced in 2004
Primary Trends
All of the last 6 winners were aged 3 to 5
The last 6 winners were Irish trained
5 of the last 6 winners had run three or more times that season
5 of the last 6 winners were running within 25 days
The last 6 winners finished in the first five last time out
The last 5 winners had won or finished 2nd in a Listed or better race
Shortlist
Latin Love
Secondary Trends
4 of the last 5 favourites were unplaced
5 of the last 6 winners were single figure prices
5 of the last 6 winners had an official rating of 100+
5 of the last 6 winners had a pre race RPR 101+
5 of the last 6 winners had previously finished in the first 2 at The Curragh
Selection(s)
One horse stands out with a perfect trends profile. Latin Love has twice finished second over this somewhat specialist distance, including in this race last year behind She’s Our Mark, and has been placed all three times she’s tried the trip.
Having had four runs this season, her last being three weeks ago, and with requisite official and Racing Post ratings, Ryan Moore looks a ‘job’ booking.
Despite a bumper field of 18 runners, Latin Love looks sure to go close and is a confident each way selection.
Matt Bisogno
3.40 Darley Irish Oaks (Group 1) (3yo) 1m4f
Primary Trends
The last 7 winners finished in the first two last time out
7 of the last 8 had two or more runs that season
7 of the last 8 were running within 44 days
5 of the last 6 had finished in the first two in a Group 1
Shortlist
Hibaayeb, Meeznah, Rosanara, Snow Fairy
Secondary Trends
The last 6 winners were single figure prices
5 of the last 8 were distance winners
The last 4 winners had an official rating of between 111 – 117
7 of the last 8 favourites finished in the first 4
Selection(s)
A big field, but much dead wood with at least half the field never likely to be better than Listed class. The primary trends are strong, and whittle the field down effectively.
Alas, the secondary trends make no further headway, only serving to underline the credentials of the nominated quartet.
Whilst I’m confident that the winner is in those four, Hibaayeb is no more than a tentative selection after her authoritative win in the Ribblesdale last time out.
It would be no surprise to see Meeznah reverse placings with Snow Fairy, but whether that form is good enough is another question. Personally, I suspect not, as the Epsom Oaks looked far from a vintage renewal.
On the next pages follows some more information that might help you choose a winner.
4.15 Thalgo Ladies Derby Handicap (Rated 60 -100) (3yo+) 1m4f
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners all finished in the first four last time out
7 of the last 8 winners had a pre race RPR of 70+
No winning favourite for 8 years
Shortlist
Dabirana, Jettymarc, Paramount, Park Ranger, Captains Dilemma
Secondary Trends
The last six winners were weighted 9-8 to 10-1
The last 8 winners were priced between 3/1 to 10/1
The last 8 winners had collectively recorded no previous wins at the Curragh
6 of the last 8 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
6 of the last 8 winners were running within 24 days
Jockeys to keep an eye on
Rides finishing position
Miss N Carberry 8 23231017
Miss A Foley 7 5027201
Miss K Walsh 7 6013374
Miss P Ryan 5 21425
Selection(s)
The Jockeys to keep an eye on above makes very interesting reading, and Nina Carberry’s mount Captains Dilemma is a big danger despite this being it’s seasonal debut
But Park Ranger, the mount of Katie Walsh, is the clear Trends selection. Market favouritism would slightly temper enthusiasm, due to the poor record of the ‘jolly’.
Tony McCormick
4.45 bettor.com Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) 5f
Primary Trends
7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
The last 8 winners had won or finished 2nd at the distance
The last 8 winners were aged 5 to 7
Shortlist
Luisant, Just For Mary
Secondary Trends
7 of the last 8 winners were priced 3/1 – 12/1
The last 6 winners were running within 23 days
Selection(s)
Just For Mary ticks a lot of boxes but, rated just 83 and having been off for longer than the norm, it may be Luisant’s turn to finally get his head in front over the minimum trip.
With stacks of form in higher class, over trips ranging from 5f to 7f, the joint top weight must be thereabouts. (Incidentally, a big weight is not an issue with two of the last four winners – and three of the last six – shouldering 9-11 or more to victory).
In amongst the 4yo fraternity lurk many dangers (although a horse that young has not won since 2001. Chief amongst them may be the rapidly improving Airspace, whose last two races have seen imperious triumphs. This is a major step up, but he may be a trends buster from the younger brigade.
Matt Bisogno and Tony McCormick
