Irish Race Trends 19th to 22nd January 2012
Golden Silver (Farside) won the 2011 Normans Grove Chase
Hello again, it’s Chris here with all the stats and info you need for the upcoming racing, courtesy once more of our very own stats/trends guru Malcolm Boyle.
Every week, Mal spends hours poring over race cards seeking out that profitable angle, usually to great effect. So let’s take a look at what he has in store for us this week.
Racing this weekend comes from Thurles, Dundalk, Naas & Fairyhouse: whose feature race is the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase, won last year by Golden Silver.
THURSDAY 19/01:
Thurles:
General stats: The best combined stats probably belong to David M O’Brien taking all things into consideration as Davis boasts a strike rate of 23%, facts which have produced a level stake profit of nine points in recent times. David’s only potential runner was his course and distance winner Ballinahow Lady who was due to contest the scheduled 3.55 event.
1.05: Six and seven-year-olds have secured seven of the eight renewals, the seven-year-olds leading 4-3 thus far. Favourites have won four contests, whilst seven winners were sent off at odds of 5/1 or less.
1.35: Four renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was recorded, market leaders having secured four of the previous five contests.
2.05: Favourites of one description or another have won six contests during the last decade, whilst seven-year-olds have won half of the relevant races.
3.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer this time around. Four of the five contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 4/1 or less, stats which include two successful favourites.
4.05: Six favourites have obliged during the last decade.
FRIDAY 20/01:
Dundalk:
General stats: The County Meath Ward stable was potentially doubly represented at Dundalk on Friday at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 24%, stats which have produced seven points of level stake profits.
Unfortunately there is no history attached to this meeting.
In terms of numbers, the leading four trainers at Dundalk during the last five years are Messers Lynam, Weld, Halford and Lyons, though level stake aggregate losses amount to over £330 to a level pound stake!
SATURDAY 21/01:
Naas:
General stats: Although Naas is yet another meeting dominated by Willie Mullins in terms of the number of winners saddled, Edward Harty leads the strike rate stats on 26% (5/19).
EBF maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.35: The nine races during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite. Seven-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via the last five contests.
Limestone Lad Hurdle scheduled for 1.05: All seven horses to have secured win and place positions thus far carried weights of 11-3 or more.
Grade 2 novice chase event scheduled for 1.40: Some readers might suggest it is mere coincidence of course, though the fact remains that seven-year-olds have won the last seven contests!
Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.15: Horses starting at a maximum price of 7/1 have won the last eight renewals, stats which include four successful market leaders.
INH flat race confined to 5/6/7-year-olds scheduled for 3.5: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last eight renewals. Favourites have won four of the last seven contests.
SUNDAY 22/01:
Fairyhouse:
General stats: Branch Relief was Terry O’Brien’s only potential runner on the card at the five day stage, the trainer boasting level profit stakes of thirty three points via a 4/13 strike rate.
Grade 2 chase scheduled for 1.50: Scotsirish won this event for Willie Mullins two years ago and the stable comes into the race on a hat trick on this occasion. Favourites have won four of the last six contests, with the other two gold medallists starting at just 11/8 and 11/4.
Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 2.25: Seven-year-olds had won six successive renewals before an eight-year-old winner brought the incredible trend to a halt. The last three winners have scored at 9/2–3/1–11/4 following four successive victories for market leaders.
Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.30: Five renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests.
INH flat race scheduled for 4.00: Five-year-olds have prevail four times via six contests during which time, two market leaders have won.
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