Keeneland Phoenix Meeting Trends
2.45 Keeneland Royal Whip Stakes (Group 2) 1m2f
Race RAG Status: Green
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners were single figure prices – (2/1,9/10,9/4,5/2,3/1,4/5,9/10,8/13)
The last 8 favourites have finished in the first 2 – (11222111)
The last 8 winners finished in the first 3 lto
7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 2 lto
7 of the last 8 winners had won a Group 3 or better
7 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 2 at the Curragh
Shortlist
Fame And Glory
Precious Gem
Secondary Trends
6 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 113+
6 of the last 8 winners finished
4 of the last 7 winners were Aiden O’Brien trained
Selection(s)
Saddlers’ Wells colt Precious Gem took the Ballymacoll Group 3 in fine style here in June but will have to show vast improvement to beat Fame And Glory.
3.45 Keeneland Debutante Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 7f
Please note this race was elevated to Group 2 status in 2004, the six Group 2 races have been run 3 times at Leopardstown and 3 times at the Curragh.
Race RAG Status: Red
Primary Trends
5 of the 6 winners were single figure prices – 13/8,11/8,9/4,12/1,9/2,2/5
5 of the 6 favourites have finished in the first 3
5 of the 6 winners had run 2 or 3 times
5 of the last 6 winners finished in the first 3 lto
Shortlist
Galamalata, Inca Princess, Laughing Lashes, Misty For Me, Seeharn and Together
Secondary Trends
4 of the last 5 winners were Irish bred
4 of the last 6 winners were running within 25 days
Selection(s)
Together was always holding Laughing Lashes in the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown last month, and should be the pick of the Aiden O’Brien quartet.
4.15 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts and Fillies) 6f
Race RAG Status: Amber
Primary Trends
In the last 8 renewals Aiden O’Brien has won 6 and finished runner up twice
7 of the last 8 winners had run between 2 and 4 times
The last 7 winners had won at the distance
The last 8 winners had won in their short careers
4 of the last 5 winners have been by Danehill and Danehill Dancer.
Shortlist
Al Aasifh(NR), Dunboyne Express(NR),Samuel Morse, Strong Suit, Zoffany
Secondary Trends
7 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred
6 of the last 8 winners had their prep race in either the Railway Stakes or the Anglesey Stakes here
6 of the last 7 winners were priced no higher than 4/1 – 11/8,8/11,8/13,13/8,25/1,5/4
The last 6 favourites either won or finished 2nd – 111221
6 of the last 8 winners were running within 39 days
Aiden O’Brien pacemakers
’09 Reggae Dancer 100/1
Led to halfway
’08 Sea Of Marma 50/1
led, headed inside final furlong
’07 Warsaw 8/1
Led, headed 2f out
’05 Amadeus Mozart 33/1
Led, headed 1½f out (2nd)
’03 Born In America 33/1
led, headed halfway
’02 Spartacus 16/1
led, ridden and headed 2f out
rallied to lead inside final furlong.
Selection(s)
A hot favourite in the shape of Strong Suit as the Hannon/Hughes tour rolls into town, he got into all sorts of trouble at Royal Ascot, before beating Elzaam a nose, with Zoffany 8¼l back in 6th. Zoffany has since regained the winning knack with two easy successes over 7f at Leopardstown. Samuel Morse was beaten 4¾l back in 4th in the same race and himself found trouble in running. He then took up The Railway Stakes far too early allowing the Jeremy Noseda trained Formosina to collar him on the line, he was then handed a 8l beating by Dunboyne Express in yielding ground here in July. Yet to win at 6f, this son of Danehill Dancer can give a good account of himself on this better ground and is of some value at 12/1.
5.10 Patrick P O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3) 6f
Race RAG Status: Amber
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners were single figure prices – 9/1, 100/30, 3/1, 8/1, 7/4, 2/1, 3/1, 5/1
The last 8 winners had all won at the distance
7 of the last 8 winners were running within 42 days
7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 105 – 118
3 and 4yo’s have won 5 of the last 8 renewals and filled 8 of the 12 place positions, from 47 runners
Shortlist
Rain Delayed, Croisultan, Bewitched
Secondary Trends
6 of the last 8 winners have won at the Curragh
7 of the last 8 favourites finished in the first 2 – 21121225
Selection(s)
From the shortlisted three Bewitched has the best form at The Curragh, though all three haven’t got the greatest course record. Croisultan has shown resonable form at listed level and deserves to take his chance here, as does Rain Delayed who won the Cork Stakes back in April, he ran the improving Invincible Ash to 1 1/2l on Friday at Tipperary over 5f and this extra furlong wont hinder his attempt here.
The selection is Bewitched who races prominently behind the leader before being produced late, i can’t see Johnny Murtagh changing tactics today.
Tony McCormick
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