Jul 01

Mal Boyle – Daily analysis

I made the point during my ‘advertising spree’ when declaring that subscribers will enjoy a secondary service via my ‘Nursery Class’ features, the same name that I gave to my published book on the subject many years ago.

The first Nursery event is due at Haydock on Thursday – so keep your eyes peeled from Wednesday onward.

I will be offering all the stats and trainer facts from last year which should give us an edge, linking the stats from two years ago from a continuity perspective.

 

WINDSOR – JULY 1

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

2015: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 5/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—William Knight (11/4, 5/2 & 15/8*) – 1 runner today: Koshi (3.35)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

Unusually, leading trainers Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston (aggregate of 11 winners at Windsor this season) are not represented today.

Of the trainers who have declared runners, John Gosden possesses the best strike rate with a ratio of 3/7 at the track in 2018.  John’s two runners today are Tivoli (1.50) and Argentello (3.35)

 

1.50: The drop down from a Listed event to this Class 4 contest surely offers TIVOLI a good chance, especially given John Gosden’s decent record at Windsor this season.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one sort or another have secured five of the last eight renewals of the opening event.

Win selection: Tivoli

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/2—Kimifive (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

The books are split wide open about the chance of Count Otto at the time of writing with Tote/Betfred only offering 3/1 in this ‘won only’ contest against the 9/2 quote by Skybet.

 

2.25: What money there is in the race is for GOODNIGHT GIRL over L’Explora as dawn breaks over the city of Bristol, with the treat of thunderstorms in our area later on today.  Thankfully, the rain should not affect Windsor and even if the forecasters have go their ‘regionals wrong’, the card should be done and dusted before any precipitation transpires. Stuart Kittow started the Windsor season well enough when two of his first four runners won at the track at odds of 13/2 & 4/1* (only two subsequent losers recorded).  There’s a chance that stable representative Gloweth could outrun her price accordingly in what amounts to an ordinary contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card

Win selection: Goodnight Girl

Each way option: Dusty

Outsider to consider: Gloweth

Overnight market activity:

None of the layers want to lay 5/1 about Dusty who is a solid 9/2 chance right across the board.  If you want to back Mick Channon’s raider from an each way perspective, if looks as though you will have to take a slight loss if Dusty finishes second or third, providing all eight runners face the starter of course.

 

3.00: Clive Cox has saddled more winners at Windsor (49 in total) than at any other track in this green and pleasant lad, albeit Clive’s 13% strike rate at the venue is nothing to write home about.  Stable representative PRINCE AHWAHNEE steps back down to the minimum trip here which will aid and abet his chance from my viewpoint.  The form lines of the front pair in the market (Kodiac Express and Puds) are intertwined and experience down the years tells me that if one such horse is beaten in the race, usually both are!

Favourite factor: Both favourites have found one too good via just the two renewals thus far.

Win selection: Prince Ahwahnee

Each way option: Grandfather Tom

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/3—Kodiac Express (good)

Overnight market activity:

Prince Ahwahnee is attracting what little money there is in the race on the exchanges overnight.  That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised If Grandfather Tom comes in for some support at 12/1 with Paddy Power.

 

3.35: If Tivoli has won the first race for the John Gosden team, you can expect ARGENTELLO to be even shorter than the projected price of 4/9 as I pen this column.  John’s Intello colt was a dual beaten favourite before scoring at the fourth time of asking over this trip at Yarmouth under these conditions the last day, and with this race confined to horses with a maximum of four outings, it is little wonder that the trainer was drawn towards the contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Windsor programme.

Win selection: Argentello

Overnight market activity:

Only conspicuous by its absence.

 

4.10: Three-year-olds have claimed seven of the last ten renewals, with INDESRETION and (particularly) EFFERVESCENCE attractively priced against two four-year-olds which head the market.  I fancy the pair to finish in the order as listed though with James Tate’s latter named raider at twice the price of the other vintage raider, James could take his recent tally to 3/4, from an each way perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Two market leaders have prevailed during the last decade during which time, five gold medallists were returned in double figures.  The last successful favourite was recorded at 2/1 five years ago.

Win selection: Indescretion

Each way option: Effervescence

Overnight market activity:

Indiscretion attracted the most money on the card in the positive queue overnight, albeit fanciful figures were in evidence against realistic odds.

 

4.45: The Windsor Executive will not be at all happy that just three trainers have taken up the challenge in the Class 4 handicap which is worth over £5k to the winner. It’s worth looking at the additional stats below for each of the three runners because had there been some moisture in the ground, I would have regarded OH IT’S SAUCEPOT as something of a good thing against these rivals.  The trio have contested eight races at this (Class 4) level without posting a success (four relevant assignments for Oh It’s Saucepot and two each for the other pair) which probably suggests that given the stats and facts on offer, stakes should be kept on the low side.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess.

Win selection: Oh It’s Saucepot (tentatively)

Forecast option: Oh It’s Saucepot – Bid Adieu

Record of the course winner in the penultimate race on the card:

1/1—Oh It’s Saucepot (good to soft)

Additional stats for the three runners:

Oh It’s Saucepot – 3/6 on turf but all three wins were gained on good to soft

Bid Adieu – 1/5 record on flat (turf) – 1/3 on good/faster

Hats Off To Larry – 1/9 – Victory gained on good ground

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note.

 

5.20: ORIN SWIFT will be saddled by Jonathan Portman who has greeted two of his last four runners in the circle reserved for winners.  Having secured ten victories during the past two months, Jonathan was maintaining his good record in the summer months and the trend can (hopefully) continue today.  There is a negative factor to consider before you go plunging in with both feet however, as Orin Swift is looking for his first win on his fourth assignment at the venue.  Five pound claimer Cameron Noble has ridden six of his 29 winners to date for trainer Michael Bell, the pair teaming up via a 19% strike rate which in terms of apprentices, is not a bad ratio at all. Maori Bob is offered the win and place option accordingly (4/1 freely available at one quarter the odds a place 1-2).

Favourite factor: Two of the five contests to date have been won my market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.

Win selection: Orin Swift

Each way option: Maori Bob

Record of the course winner in the Windsor finale:

1/4—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Orin Swift and Maori Bob had attracted most (realistic) money (low liquidity) in the exchange queues by 4.30 this morning.

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

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