Feb 02

Mal Boyle stats – Friday 2nd

TWO POINTS OF ORDER REGARDING HORSES MENTIONED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH ARE RUNNING THIS COMING WEEKEND.

On Thursday I wrote: The leading trainer during the period is Simon Dow on the three winner mark (9/2, 9/2 & 2/1*) though unfortunately Simon is not represented at Kempton today.  That said, I note that he has just the one runner pencilled in at the track for Saturday’s fixture, namely Ojala in the scheduled 7.15 contest.

The other horse is Tactical Manoeuvre who looked set to be a great ‘bet to nothing’ bet on Wednesday before being withdrawn.  I suggested at the time that he had two potential engagements and not having run today (Friday), all looks set for the green light at Taunton (4.30) for which he has been declared a runner at the ‘overnight’ stage.

Thursday’s school report:

As tweeted late last night – I was out all day:

Just got home – MMA WINNERS ON THURSDAY AT 16/1 & 11/4 which were returned at 14/1 & 10/11 respectively – backed up with a placed horse at 33/1 (backed into 10/1). 33/1 WINNER via in form (Tony Carroll) and 4 winners in Meydan – Charlie Appleby 32/1 double (included a 10/1 WINNER) and Saeed Bin Suroor 5/1 brace.

Add a 14/1 Exacta into the equation via Mick Appleby’s runners in the 2.05 Southwell (‘Ahead of the Game’ service) and we can say it was a reasonable day!

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

CATTERICK:

2.25: Oak Vintage – 3/1 (365/Hills/Boyle) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 5/2

2.55: Planet Nine – 5/1 (PP/Boyle/Betfred/Tote)-  NOW 4/1

 Additional Catterick entries at 8.00:

 1.20: Sin Sin – 11/4 (Generally available)

4.35: Devils Water – 25/1 (Generally available)

CHEPSTOW:

1.10: Don’t Ask – 5/4 (Hills/Betfred/Tote/PP) – NOW 6/5

2.45: Auenwirbel – 14/1 (PP & Betfair) – NOW 9/1

3.55: Allchilledout – 9/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – NOW 4/1

Additional Chepstow entries at 8.00:

2.15: This Is it – 8/1 (Sportingbet)

3.20: Molly Carew – 7/1 (Sportingbet) 

LINGFIELD:

1.30: French Max – 10/1 (Hills/Coral/Brefred/Tote)  – NOW 15/2

2.00: Mr Andros – 12/1 (Hills/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 9/1

2.35: Craving – 4/1 (Hills/PP) – NOW 10/3

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

NONE 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.45: New Abbey Angel – 9/2 (365/Marathon/PP) – NOW 7/2

6.45: Akkadian Empire – 4/1 (Hills/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 7/2

7.15: Round The Buoy – 10/1 (365/BetVictor) – NOW 15/2

7.45: Little Miss Tango – 14/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/1

8.15: Beatbybeatbybeat – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon/PP) – NOW 7/2

8.45: Corporal Maddox – 33/1 (PP) – NOW 25/1

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 8.00:

6.15: Good Time Ahead – 9/2 (Skybet)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

16/52—Harry Whittington (+19) – 1 at Catterick: Spirit Of Rome (1.20)

12/40—Charlie Appleby (+8) – 2 chances: Broderie (2.35 Lingfield) & Sportswriter (7.15 Wolverhampton)

11/30—Donald McCain (+5) – 3 at Catterick: Dark Sunset (2.55), Same Circus (3.30) & Derrynane (4.35)

8/28—Warren Greatrex (+3) – 2 at Chepstow: Don’t Ask (1.10) & Rock My Style (2.15)

8/34—Tom Lacey (+25) – 2 at Chepstow: Thomas Patrick (1.40) & Kateson (4.25)

7/22—Henry Daly (+15) – 1 at Chepstow: Cobber’s Son (1.10)

6/21—Keith Dalgleish (+41) – 2 today: Niceandeasy (2.55 Catterick) & New Abbey Angel (5.45 Wolverhampton)

6/23—Gary Moore (+1) – 1 at Lingfield: Aussie Reigns (3.05)

5/9—Archie Watson (+37) – 1 at Lingfield: Durtch Uncle (4.15)

5/22—Henry Oliver (+12) – 1 at Chepstow: Whispering Harry (2.45)

4/7—Robin Dickin (+3) – 1 at Catterick: Timon’s Tara (3.30)

4/7—Sue Smith (+13) – 3 at Catterick: What’s The Scoop (1.50), Iskabeg Lane (4.05) & Perseid (4.35)

4/8—Iain Jardine (+16) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Akkadian Empire (6.45)

4/9—Rose Dobbin (+11) – 1 at Catterick: Planet Nine (2.55)

4/12—Kim Bailey – 1 at Chepstow: The Drinkymeister (3.55)

4/13—Tony Carroll (+46) – 2 at Wolverhampton in the 5.45 contest: Frantical & Rightway

4/13—John Gosden – 1 at Wolverhampton (Stealth (7.15)

4/13—John O’Shea (+39) – 2 runners: Celer Et Audax (1.10 Chepstow) & Clement (2.00 Lingfield)

4/16—Derek Shaw – 1 at Lingfield: Captain Lars (2.00)

3/4—Colin Tizzard (+13) – 3 at Chepstow: Quiz Master (3.20), Allchilledout (3.25) & Kauto The King (4.25)

3/6—Paul Nicholls (+4) – 1 at Chepstow: Bill And Barn (2.15)

3/7—Mark Johnston (+3) – 4 runners: – 2 at Lingfield: Firlinfeu (2.35) & Watersmeet (3.05) + 2 at Wolverhampton: Ravenhoe (5.45) & Mambo Dancer (6.15)

3/8—Phil Kirby (+3) – 2 chances: Shine Baby Shine (1.20 Catterick) & Good Time Ahead (6.15 Wolverhampton)

3/10—Antony Brittain (+6) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Lucky Lodge (6.45) & Beatbybeatbybeat (8.15)

3/13—Gay Kelleway (+27) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Vroom (8.15)

2/3—Andrew Balding (+6) – 3 at Lingfield: Highland Pass (1.30), St Mary’s (3.05) & Hidden Steps (4.15)

45 runners today listed in race order via the in form trainer list:

1.10: Celer Et Audax, Cobbler’s Son & Don’t Ask

1.20: Spirit Of Rome & Shine Baby Shine

1.30: Highfield Pass

1.40: Thomas Patrick

1.50: What’s The Scoop

2.00: Clement & Captain Lars

2.15: Bill And Barn & Rock My Style

2.35: Firlinfeu & Broderie

2.45: Whispering Harry

2.55: Planet Nine, Niceandeasy & Dark Sunset

3.05: St Mary’s, Aussie Reigns & Watersmeet

3.20: Quiz Master

3.25: Allchilledout

3.30: Timon’s Tara & Same Circus

3.55: The Drinkymeister

4.05: Iskabeg Lane

4.15: Hidden Steps & Dutch Uncle

4.25: Kateson & Kauto The King

4.35: Perseid & Deryynane

5.45: Ravenhoe, Frantical, Rightway & New Abbey Angel

6.15: Good Time Ahead & Mambo Dancer

6.45: Akkadian Empire & Lucky Lodge

7.15: Stealth & Sportswriter

8.15: Beatbybeatbybeat & Vroom

 

FRIDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on a five year result study unless stated):

CHEPSTOW (Two year study – four recent meetings abandoned):

14 races – 4 winning favourites – 11/14 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £933.25

Highest dividend: £1,747.30 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £119.20 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

None – 14 different trainers won the relevant races

 

CATTERICK (Four year study – meetings abandoned in 2015 & 2012):

28 races – 12 winning favourites – All 28 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £74.58

Highest dividend: £170.40 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £11.10 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

The only trainer (of five) to have saddled two winners at the corresponding fixture to be represented on Friday is Donald McCain: 2 winners (5/1 & 5/4) – 3 runners: Dark Sunset (2.55), Same Circus (3.30) & Derrynane (4.35) today:

 

LINGFIELD (Six year study):

41 races – 20 winning favourites – 37/41 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £49.85

Highest dividend: £131.60 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £5.40 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

No trainer has saddled more than two winners which given the six year study period, is a poor result and not worth informing.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON – STATS FOR THE LAST FIVE MEETINGS THIS SEASON:

37 races – 20 winning favourites – 35/37 winners have scored at a top price of 11/1.  35 different trainers have saddled the 37 winners; whereby there is no leading trainer

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’:

FRIDAY:

CATTERICK:

1.20: All seven winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 7/1, six of which were returned at 2/1 or less!  Market Leaders have won the last four contests.

2.55: Five renewals have slipped by since the last (7/4) favourite won – four of the last five winners scored at 12/1, 10/1 10/1 & 8/1.

CHEPSTOW:

2.45: Two 16/1 winners have won thus far, with both (11/4 & 9/4) favourites finishing out of the frame.

LINGFIELD:

1.30: All three gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick.

2.00: All four winners have carried 9-1 or more to victory.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.45: Irish raider Filudo (trained by Gordon Elliott) is the only four-year-old in the line-up, with vintage representatives having won four of the last seven renewals.

6.15: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 to victory.  Running against those stats however is Mambo Dancer who hails from the Mark Johnston yard which has won the last three renewals when represented.

8.15: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five contests with just three representatives having been declared this time around.  With six of the last seven winners having carried 9-2 or more to victory, Jumping Around could prove to be the pick of the relevant trio on this occasion.

8.45: This is the second division of the previous race, whereby the same stats apply.  Two four-year-olds are set to face the starter, namely Chaucer’s Tale & Awesome Allan.

SATURDAY (A/W MEETINGS):

LINGFIELD:

1.25: Both the 7/4 and 1/2 favourites have won their respective races in facile fashion, scoring by an aggregate of ten lengths.

2.00: Four of the twelve declarations represent the five-year-old vintage which has secured four of the last eight renewals.  Eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites of one description or another.

2.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the last ten contests whilst favourites have secured six of the last 11 renewals.  All eleven winners scored at a top price of 11/2.

3.05: Marco Botti (Red Label) has saddled the winners of five of the last six contests when represented!  On the vintage front, five-year-olds again lead the way having secured three of the last four renewals.

KEMPTON – ESSENTIALLY, THIS MEETING DOES NOT HAVE A HISTORY TO WORK ON.

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

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