Jun 15

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 15th

MAL BOYLE STATS – FRIDAY 15TH

Thursday’s school report:

Although only four MMA winners were recorded at 7/1 (returned at 11/4), 5/1 (5/2), 7/2 (7/4) & 5/1 (5/2), we secured (frustratingly) another eight placed horses, which included those at 12/1 (8/1), 10/1 (9/2), 8/1 (4/1), 8/1 (11/2), 15/2 (3/1) & 15/2 (4/1).

The tide will turn, whilst we continue to smash up the prices on a daily basis with horses which finish out of the frame, yesterday’s examples included those at 33/1 (14/1), 9/1 (11/2) & 11/2 (7/2).

My two-year-old report offered a 16/1 winner with the only other horse mentioned in despatches finishing second, producing a 164/1 Exacta and a 134/1 CSF if you put the two together!

 

APPROXIMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: FRIDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

4.45: FIVE YEAR CORRESPONDING STATS FOR 3 MEETINGS – DONE

5.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.15: MAL’S SANDOWN ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

6.45: WORLD CUP SERVICE (Includes update prices/stats & opinion) – DONE

7.30: TWO YEAR OLD NOTES – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 1 ADDITION

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHEPSTOW:

5..55: Sfumato – 11/4 (Generally available)

7.30: Nutini – 4/1 (365/Betfair)

8.05: Jaganory – 8/1 (365)

Additional Chepstow entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

GOODWOOD:

6.05: Qeyaadah – 7/1 (Betfair)

7.10: Wax And Wane – 7/1 (Generally available)

7.40: Sassie – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Goodwood entry at 8.00:

Nayslayer – 2/1 (Sportingbet)

 

SANDOWN:

2.35: Happy Power – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.45: Turnpike Trip – 11/1 (Betfair/PP/Betfair)

4.20: Affina (12/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

4.50: Beringer – 5/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/BetVictor)

Additional Sandown entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

YORK:

3.30: Two horses to consider: The Great Wall – 7/1 (365) & Classic Seniority – 12/1 Skybet)

4.05: Another Touch – 12/1 (365/Betfair/Pp/Boyle)

4.40: Sandra’s Secret – 6/1 (Generally available)

Additional York entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

AINTREE:

5.45: Two horses to consider: Primogeniture – 9/2 (365) & Mr Snoozy – 8/1 (Betfair/PP/BetBright/ BetVictor)

6.15: Weinberg – 3/1 (365)

6.50: No Duffer – 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

7.55: The Flying Portrait – 8/1 (BetBorght/188)

Additional Aintree entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

NEWTON ABBOT:

3.20: Glanvilles Guest – 9/1 (PP)

5.00: No No Cardinal -10/1 (Generally available)

Additional Newton Abbot entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

FRIDAY STAT ATTACKS:

CHEPSTOW:

28 races – 7 winning favourites – 26/28 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Chepstow this season:

3/8—Ed de Giles (9/1 twice & 9/2) – 4 runners: Swanton Blue (5.55), Operative (7.30), Quantum Dot (8.05) & Vincent’s Forever (9.05)

 

GOODWOOD:

48 races – 23 winning favourites – 47/48 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Goodwood this season:

5/14—Mark Johnston (4/1*, 4/1, 11/4*, 9/4* & 5/4*) – 3 runners: Poet’s Society (6.05), Dr Richard Kimble (7.10) & Faithful Promise (8.15)

 

SANDOWN:

19 races – 9 winning favourites – 18/19 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Sandown this season:

None of the three leading trainers this season are represented today and no other handler at the track has saddled more than one winner here this term.

 

YORK:

28 races – 11 winning favourites – 26/28 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer at York this season:

4/11—Mark Johnston (8/1, 7/2 & 11/4* twice) – 1 runner: Chapelli (1.50)

 

AINTREE:

7 races – 3 winning favourites –  6/7 winners scored at a top price of 5/1

Leading trainer at Aintree this season:

3/6—Dan Skelton (2/1*, 13/8 & 1/4*) – 4 runners: Petrou (6.50), Parthenius (7.20), Free Stone Hill (7.55) & Sauvignon (8.25)

 

NEWTON ABBOT:

21 races – 5 winning favourites – All 21 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Newton Abbot this season:

2/2—Gail Haywood (12/1 & 9/2*) – 1 runner: Amour D’Or (3.20)

 

CORRESPONDING FIVE YEAR STATS FOR THREE MEETINGS TODAY:

AINTREE:

33 races –12 winning favourites –  31/33 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Aintree during the period:

4 winners—Jonjo O’Neill (15/2, 7/2, 9/4 & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Upswing (6.50) & Champagne At Tara (7.55)

 

CHEPSTOW:

35 races – 15 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer at Chepstow during the period:

4 winners—Malcolm Saunders (11/2. 11/2, 5/1 & 15/8*) – 1 runner: Nutini (7.30)

 

YORK:

35 races – 9 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at York during the period:

7 winners—David O’Meara (Prices ranging between 4/1* & 8/1) – 5 runners: Fayruz (2.20), Saryshagann, Alfred Hutchinson & Hajjam (3.30) & Jacbequick (1.50)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

1.50 York: 

Slowmo defies his name and “goes like a rocket” according to trainer Tom Dascombe.  That said, Richard KIngscote’s  mount might have to burn up plenty of petrol if he is to keep tabs on Chapelli however, especially as Tom’s Kodiac colt only in receipt of 16 ounces from the projected favourite.  Big Boots has become a good yardstick already but might be weighted out of contention here.

2.00 Sandown: 

Despite suffering from sore shins earlier in the spring, Oberyn Martell only found one too good on debut and this is not the classiest two-year-old race ever run at Sandown.

2.35 Sandown: 

If money is anything to go by, Happy Power could be past the post here, such has been the support overnight for Andrew Balding’s raider.  Many of Richard Hannon’s runners have needed their first runs of the season this term, and that was certainly the case with Glorious Dane at the first time of asking.  I will be expecting a much better effort this afternoon.

2.55 York: 

Although they only boast an 18% strike rate this term, Karl Burke’s juveniles have won four races and Chains Of Love has been well placed by the trainer in a race high on numbers but short on class from my viewpoint.

6.25 Chepstow: 

Andrew Balding has a few youngsters out and about today and Dutch Treat might be one of the better ones.  Andrew is quite taken with his Dutch Art filly who he described as “going along nicely with a bit of quality” a few months back.

6.35 Goodwood:

Jungle Juice could be anything for Mick Channon of course but the form of Nayslayer is working out particularly well, with the three horses that finished in front of Sylvester Kirk’s April foal having all subsequently won.

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE (COMPETITION STATS AND UPDATED BETTING AT THE END OF THE COLUMN):

URUGUAY V EGYPT – 1pm kick off

16/25—Uruguay (Marathon)

29/10—Draw (Generally available)

7/1—Egypt (Betfair)

Half time betting:

5/4—Uruguay (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8/7—Draw (Unibet & 188)

7/1—Egypt (Hills)

OPINION: Ladbrokes and Coral obviously do not rate Uruguay as high as yours truly and some of the other firms. With Egypt only really having Mo Salah to offer in terms of genuine opposition, I expect Uruguay to be in control by half time, whereby the 5/4 odds on offer for a first half lead with Ladbrokes & Coral appeals.

MARKETS SINCE THURSDAY: It’s worth noting on the back of just one match, layers have taken action already in the ‘unders/overs’ markets making quite significant changes on both fronts (obviously) with ‘overs’ in each of the games having been cut overnight.

Half time/Full time odds:

31/20–Uruguay/Uruguay (Ladbrokes/Coral)

22/1–Uruguay/Draw (Skybet)

90/1–Uruguay/Egypt (Unibet/888)

38/11–Draw/Uruguay (Unibet/188)

9/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet/Unibet/888/Bet Victor)

15/1–Draw/Egypt (188)

30/1–Egypt/Uruguay (Unibet/188/888)

22/1–Egypt/Draw (Skybet & Hills)

49/4–Egypt/Egypt (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

69/50 (YES) – (Marathon)

4/6 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

13/19–under 2.5 goals (188)

159/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/4–under 3.5 goals (Skybet & Betway)

19/5–3.5 goals or more (Marathon)

 

MOROCCO V IRAN – 4pm kick off

13/10—Morocco (Betfair/Sunbets/Black Type)

21/10—Draw (365/BoyleBetVictor)

3/1—Iran (Marathon/Betfair/Betfred/Betway)

Half time betting:

11/5—Morocco (Ladbrokes/Coral)

10/11—Draw (Betfred/Betway)

4/1—Iran (Betfair)

OPINION: Don’t be too dismissive of Iran as they kept nine successful ‘clean sheets’ in the final stage of their qualifying journey.  Only Brazil qualified for the finals before Iran which makes for interesting reading.

MARKETS SINCE THURSDAY: Iran have been backed (to a fashion) overnight, given their good defensive qualities which led them to Russia I’ll wager.

Half time/Full time odds:

29.10–Morocco/Morocco (Ladbrokes/Coral)

18/1–Morocco/Draw (Skybet)

55/1–Morocco/Iran (Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet/888)

22/5–Draw/Morocco (Unibet/888)

16/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888/BetVictor)

38/5–Draw/Iran (Marathon)

40/1–Iran/Morocco (Generally available)

19/1–Iran/Draw (BetVictor)

6/1–Iran/Iran (Betfair/BetVictor)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Sunbets)

4/6 (NO) – (Ladbrokes/Betfair/BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

6/13–under 2.5 goals (188)

21/10–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

2/13–under 3.5 goals (Generally available)

103/20–3.5 goals or more (Marathon)

 

SPAIN V PORTUGAL – 7pm kick off

11/10—Spain (Betfair & Black Type)

40/17—Draw (Unibet)

13/4—Portugal (Marathon)

Half time betting:

9/5—Spain (Ladbrokes/Betfair/Black Type/10Bet)

42/41—Draw (Unibet/888)

39/10—Portugal (Marathon)

OPINION: Portugal have been backed, presumably on the back of the Spanish management scenario.  If you fancy Portugal to get one over ‘the old enemy’, I would suggest that the 39/10 quote for a half time lead is the way to play, simply because of the negative mental aspect that Spain seem to have over their rivals.  If Portugal are not in front at the interval, it might be hard for them to break down the mental barrier. We should hope/expect that Portugal will be gunning for their day in the sun and should come out blazing with both barrels.  If Spain do fight back to gain a draw/win, you still collect if you have taken the 39/10 half time price!  It’s worth noting that the price yesterday was 9/2, whereby I am not alone in my ‘prediction’ in this contest.

MARKETS SINCE THURSDAY: All the options opposing a straightforward Spain win have been cut in price though it’s fair to say that the margins (aside from the half time lead for Portugal) have been slightly changed, rather than a wholesale slide towards the outsiders.

Half time/Full time odds:

5/2–Spain/Spain (Ladbrokes/Betfair/Coral)

35/2–Spain/Draw (188)

50/1–Spain/Portugal (Coral/Unibet/Black Type/188/888)

17/4–Draw/Spain (Unibet/888)

4/1–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

42/5–Draw/Portugal (Marathon)

35/1–Portugal/Spain (188)

17/1–Portugal/Draw (BetVictor)

32/5–Portugal/Portugal (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

11/10 (YES) – (Bet Stars & 10Bet)

83/100 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

16/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

37/25–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/4–under 3.5 goals (Skybet)

4/1–3.5 goals or more (Betfair & Bet Stars)

 

2018 WORLD CUP STATS

  • Russia’s victory means that the host nation has never lost their opening match in any of the 21 editions of the World Cup (won 16, drew six – there were two hosts in 2002).
  • Russia (5-0) recorded the second biggest victory by a host nation in their opening match at a World Cup, after Italy v USA in 1934 (7-1).
  • Russia scored more than twice as many goals in this game (five) as they did in the entire 2014 World Cup finals over three games (two).
  • Saudi Arabia have not won any of their past 11 games at the World Cup (drew two, lost nine). Their last win in the competition dates back to the group stages of the 1994 edition (1-0 v Belgium).

 

UPDATED BETTING

World Cup outright (Best prices):

66/1—Russia (Skybet & Sportingbet) – Russia were 50/1 at the weekend – strange drift in the market given their 5-0 win?

5000/1—Saudi Arabia (Generally available)

To win Group A (Best prices)

5/6—Uruguay (Skybet & Betfair)

7/4—Russia (Hills out on a limb at 7/4)

17/2—Egypt (Betfair & PP)

500/1—Saudi Arabia (Unibet)

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