Feb 16

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 16th

SATURDAY’S ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ SERVICE CAN NOW BE FOUND TOWARDS  THE FOOT OF THE COLUMN – BEST OF LUCK TODAY!

Thursday’s school report:

4 RUNNERS LAST NIGHT – 3 WON AT 7/1, 11/2 & 4/1 (SP 5/1).

We were enduring the most frustrating of days but as suggested only a few hours before, “the tide will turn – it will turn with a vengeance” – the 259/1 treble proved me right!

Every horse was basically ‘backed of the boards’ in the afternoon but we just could not catch a winner – and then things turned around – and how!

That said, this is not only an MMA service and the in from trainer system proved fruitful, with Keith Dalgleish scoring with both of his runners to create a 25/1 double! 

Colin Tizzard matches that effort with a 10/1 brace – Henry Daly won with his only runner of the day at 11/4, whilst Kevin Ryan kept his momentum going to fine effect at 4/1. 

These four in form trainers won with six of their seven runners in total!  Just noticed another in form trainer who won with his only runner yesterday; Ed Dunlop at 5/1 – ratio now 3/4 (+9) – 1 runner today – see below!

FRIDAY TIMELINE: 

5.15: MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.45: SANDOWN AND FAKENHAM STAT ATTACKS – DONE

8.00: MMA PRICE UPDATE AND ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE

9.00: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

9.15: LAST OF THE A/W TRAINER FEATURE THIS WEEK – COMPLETING THE REPORT ON 25 TRAINERS – DONE

9.30: ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – DONE 

13.00: ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME FOR THE WEEKEND’

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am)

PRICES NOW UPDATED = FOUR ADDITIONAL ENTRIES – BEST OF LUCK!

SANDOWN:

1.20: Mr Fickle – 18/1 (365/Sunbets) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 14/1

1.50: Movie Legend – 4/1 (Generally available) – NOW 10/3

3.00: Midnight Monty – 4/1 (Generally available) – NOW 7/2

3.30: Notre Ami – 5/1 (365) – NOW 9/2

4.35: The Sweeney – 12/1 (Betfair) – NOW 8/1

Additional Sandown entries at 8.00:

2.25: Natanja – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Coral/Boyle)

4.05: Vino Griego – 11/1 (Sportingbet)

 

FAKENHAM:

2.45: Dashing Perk – 9/4 (Hills) – NOW 2/1

3.20: Jarlath – 4/1 (365/Coral/BetVictor) – NOW 7/1

4.25: Pride Of Parish – 7/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/2

4.55: Arch My Boy – 7/1 (365 & Ladbrokes among a few other firms) – NOW 11/2

Additional Fakenham entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

LINGFIELD (A/W):

2.35: Toms Rock – 12/1 (365) – NOW 7/1

4.15: Sanches – 9/1 (365/Betway) – NOW 7/1

4.45: Smiley Bagel – 11/2 (Generally available) – NOW 9/2

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

2.00: Running Wolf – 11/1 (Generally availableO

3.10: Burrumbeet – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfred/Tote)

 

NEWCASTLE (A/W):

5.45: Captain Bob – 15/2 (Skybet/Sunbets) – NOW 13/2

7.45: Glorious Politics – 14/1 (365/Brefair/Betbright) – NOW 10/1

8.15: Chloris – 3/1 (Sunbets) – NOW 11/4

8.45: Alfonso Manana – 6/1 (Generally available) – NOW 5/1

Additional Newcastle entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

8/20—Anthony Honeyball (+10) – 1 at Sandown: Midnight Tune (2.25)

6/13—Fergal O’Brien (+7) – 1 at Fakenham: Benechencko (2.45)

6/13—Colin Tizzard (+3) – 4 runners: 2 at Fakenham: Ivor’s Queen (2.10) & Flaming Charmer (2.20) + 2 at Sandown: Mister Malarkey (3.30) & Bally Longford (4.05)

5/12—John Gosden (+18) – 3 today: Stealth (1.30 Lingfield) + 2 at Newcastle: Ode To Autumn (7.15) & Chloris (8.15)

Last four runners have won—Keith Dalgleish (+15) – 1 chance: Falcon’s Fire (4.45 Lingfield)

3/4—Ed Dunlop (+9) – 1 today: King Kevin (3.40 Lingfield)

3/6—Hugo Palmer – 1 at Newcastle: Evince (8.15)

3/7—Warren Greatrex (+7) – 1 at Sandown: – Aloomomo (4.05)

3/7—Donald McCain (+11) – 1 at Sandown: Ubaltique (1.50)

3/8—Michael Bell – 1 at Newcastle: Sheriff (7.15)

3/8—Ed Walker (+2) – 2 at Lingfield: Burrembeet (3.10) & Smiley Bagel (4.45)

3/9—Amy Murphy (+10) – 1 at Fakenham: Strawberry Spirit (2.45)

3/10—Rebecca Bastiman (+39) – 2 at Newcastle: Be Bold (5.45) & Foxy Boy (6.45)

Last two runners have won—Archie Watson (+9) – 1 at Lingfield: Dutch Uncle (2.35)

2/3—Zoe Davison (+27) – 1 at Sandown: Georgieshore (1.20)

2/3—David Dennis (+10) – 1 at Sandown: Broken Quest (4.35)

2/3—Dr Richard Newland (+7) – 1 at Fakenham: Dashing Perk (2.45)

2/3—Richard Spencer (+8) – 1 at Fakenham: Aptly Put (2.45)

2/4—Michael Appleby (+6) – 2 at Fakenham: Bayeh (1.40) & Mrs Bellamy (4.55)

2/4—David Pipe – 1 at Sandown: Rathlin Rose (3.00)

28 runners in race order via in form list:

1.20: Georgieshore

1.30: Stealth

1.40: Bayeh

1.50: Ubaltique

2.10: Ivor’s Queen

2.20: Flaming Charmer

2.25: Midnight Tune

2.35: Dutch Uncle

2.45: Aptly Put, Dashing Perk, Benechenko & Strawberry Spirit

3.00: Rathlin Rose

3.10: Burrumbeet

3.30: Mr Malarkey

3.40: King Kevin

4.05: Aloomomo & Bally Longford

4.35: Broken Quest

4.45: Falcon’s Fire & Smiley Bagel

4.55: Mrs Bellamy

5.45: Be Bold

6.45: Foxy Boy

7.15: Sheriff & Ode To Autumn

8.15: Evince & Chloris

 

Friday Stat Attack (Five year study period unless stated)

SANDOWN (Four year study – meeting abandoned in 2014):

28 races – 14 winning favourites – 26/28 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £387.10

Highest dividend: £1,261.20 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £21.70 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Nicky Henderson (9/4*, 11/10* & 2/7*) – 1 runner today: Melangerie (2.25)

3 winners—Jonjo O’Neill (3/1, 5/2* & 9/4) – 1 runner today: Lithic (4.05)

FAKENHAM:

35 races – 16 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,287.72

Highest dividend: £4,824.40 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £10.50 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Nicky Henderson (8/11* & 2/5* twice) – 1 runner today: Rather Be (2.10)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – FRIDAY

SANDOWN:

3.00: Paul Nicholls only held one entry (Orbasa) at the four day stage for a race he has won three times during the last decade.

Unfortunately, all the other potential qualifiers for today have not been declared to run.

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SATURDAY:

ASCOT:

1.15: Nine of the last ten winners scored at 3/1 or less, stats which include five winning favourites.  All ten winners won at a top price of 7/1.

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Reynoldstown’.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, whilst nine of the last ten gold medallists carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

3.35: The biggest priced winner scored at 11/2 during the last decade, whilst favourites have won six of the last renewals.

HAYDOCK:

1.30: Eight of the last ten winners scored at a top price of 4/1 during which time, six market leaders prevailed.

4.25: Six-year-olds have won nine of the last ten contests.

WINCANTON:

1.40: Course winner Mighty Missile is the only seven-year-old in the field, vintage representatives having won five of the last nine renewals.

2.45: Horses returned at 10/3 or less have won the last nine contests, stats which include five successful market leaders.

3.55: Interesting that Paul Nicholls has saddled the last five winners of this contest, albeit that his only midweek entry (Captain Cattistock) now runs at Ascot on Saturday.

4.30: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst the last five winners have scored at a top price of 10/3.

5.05: Eight of the last ten winners scored at a top price of 7/2 but mind where you tread as the other pair were returned at 66/1 and 40/1!.

LINGFIELD

2.20: All 31 runners during the last eleven years which have carried less than nine stones have been beaten! Four of the nine entries are potentially eliminated (includes one via a claiming jockey).

KEMPTON:

5.45: All 29 runners carrying less than 9-7 have been beaten during the last four years, potentially eliminating five of the eight runners.

6.45: Michael Wigham has won the race on both occasions recently when represented – Michael’s only runner Deeds Not Words offers a ratio of 1/2 at the course – was not knocked about last time when ‘only’ beaten five lengths when finishing seventh of twelve.

 

A/W STAT REPORT – CARRYING ON WHERE I LEFT OFF YESTERDAY – THE LAST BATCH OF TRAINERS –  GIVING YOU STATS OF 25 STABLES.

TRAINER – KEITH DALGLEISH:

Chelmsford: 4/29 (loss of 15)

Kempton: 10/58 (loss of 4)

Lingfield: 3/37 (loss of 24)

Newcastle: 12/185 (loss of 85)

Southwell: 22/143 (loss of 19)

Wolves: 24/228 (loss of 104)

TRAINER – JAMES FANSHAWE:

Chelmsford: 4/27 (loss of 14)

Kempton: 50/259 (loss of 19)

Lingfield: 17/79 (loss of 13)

Newcastle: 11/35 (+8)

Southwell: 0/1

Wolves: 3/51 (loss of 43)

TRAINER – MARCO BOTTI:

Chelmsford: 31/217 (loss of 14)

Kempton: 26/263 (loss of 115)

Lingfield: 26/182 (loss of 25)

Newcastle: 7/33 (+5)

Southwell: 4/16 (loss of 4)

Wolves: 25/258 (loss of 5)

TRAINER – TOM DASCOMBE:

Chelmsford: 5/35 (loss of 2)

Kempton: 8/89 (loss of 31)

Lingfield: 25/127 (loss of 17)

Newcastle: 3/23 (+10)

Southwell: 9/34 (+29)

Wolves: 34/344 (loss of 85)

TRAINER – TIM EASTERBY:

Chelmsford: 1/17 (loss of 14)

Kempton: 0/1

Lingfield: 0/3

Newcastle: 3/104 (loss of 84)

Southwell: 5/44 (+26)

Wolves: 13/81 (loss of 3)

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

 

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