Nov 17

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 17th

SATURDAY’S FACTS & FIGURES – STARTING WITH THE BET VICTOR GOLD CUP (2.25):

Stats of represented trainers who have won the race before:

3/25–Nigel Twiston Davies – Little Josh (2010), Imperial Commander (2008) & Tipping Tim (1992) – 2 runners in the race this year: Foxtail Hill & Splash Of Ginge

2/34–Paul Nicholls – Card De Berlais (2014) & Al Ferof (2012) – 2 runners: Le Prezien & Romain De Senam

1/12–Venetia Williams – The Outback Way (1999) – 1 runner: Plaisir D’Amour

1/15–David Pipe – Great Endeavour (2011) – 1 runner: Starchitect

1/29–Nicky Henderson – Fondmort (2003) – 2 runners: Theinval & Days Of Heaven

Seven-year-olds have won eight of the last fourteen renewals, whilst 11/14 have carried a maximum weight of 11-2.  Only one favourite has obliged during the last eleven years, though 16 of the last 19 winners have scored at a top price of 12/1.

Others races on Saturday’s card:

12.40: Four of the last six races have been won by market leaders, whilst another was sent off as the 15/8 second favourite.  Four renewals have slipped by since Paul Nicholls secured a hat trick in the race with Far West in 2012.

1.15: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last eight contests.  7 of the last 17 renewals have been won by market leaders whilst 14 gold medallists during that time scored at a top price of just 4/1.

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, whilst eight of the last ten have carried a top weight of 10-13.

3.00: Six races have slipped by since the last favourite obliged, whilst three winners during the period scored at 20/1 (twice) & 14/1.  Six-year-olds have the best ‘recent’ record having recorded seven victories in the last fifteen years.  14/last 15 gold medallists carried a maximum burden of 10-13.

3.30: 19 renewals to date in which five and six-years have (equally) shared 18 victories!  Only two favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years, with seven gold medallists having won at prices ranging between 12/1 & 40/1.

4.00: Five-year-olds have won the last three of five renewals in total, with just one market leader having scored to date.  Two winners have scored at 28/1 & 14/1 thus far.

In form trainers for Friday include (Minimum required strike rate of 25% to qualify and/or exceptional level stake profits of late):

15/53–Dan Skelton (+27) – 2 at Cheltenham: Or De Vassy (1.15) & Momella (3.35)

10/33–Nigel Twiston-Davies (+18) – 2 at Cheltenham: Tintern Abbey (12.40) & Calett Mad (3.35)

9/21–Charlie Appleby (+17) – 1 early runner on SATURDAY: Kidmenever (6.20 Sandown)

9/36–Fergal O’Brien (+21) – 3 at Cheltenham: War On The Rocks (1.15) & Aye Aye Charlie & Poetic Rhythm (3.35)

8/23–Philip Hobbs (+55) – 2 at Cheltenham: Lamb Or Cod (12.40) & Bertie Boru (3.00)

7/18–Nicky Henderson (+3) – 3 at Cheltenham: Sugar Baron (12.40), William Henry (2.35) & On The Blind Side (3.35)

7/19–Phil Middleton (+43) – 1 at Cheltenham: Exitas (1.50)

7/21–William Haggas – 4 today: Contentment (12.20 Lingfield), Mam’Selle (12.40 St Cloud), Mosseyb (12.50 Lingfield) & Cymbal (545 Chelmsford)

5/15–Jamie Osborne (+42) – 5 today: Montague (11.50 Lingfield), Ice Royal (2.00 Lingfield) + 3 at Chelmsford: Cliffs Of Capri (7.15), Intermodal (8.15) & Volturnus (8.45)

5/20–Kim Bailey (+17) – 1 at Cheltenham: Deiling Banjos (12.40)

4/11–Karl Burke (+74) – 1 at Chelmsford: Geogian Bay (6.45)

4/12–Hariett Graham (+31) – 1 at Newcastle: Aye Right (3.25)

4/13–Simon Crisford (+7) – 1 at St Cloud: Lawless Secret (12.40)

4/16–John Gosden (+4) – 1 at St Cloud: Precious Ramotswe (12.40)

3/8–Roger Charlton – 1 at Lingfield: Pescedora (11.50)

28 runners in race order:

11.50: Montague & Pescedora

12.20: Contentment

12.40: Lamb Or Cod, Dueling Banjos, Tintern Abbey & Sugar Baron

12.40 St Cloud: Precious Ramotswe, Mam’Selle & Lawless Secret

12.50: Mosseyb

1.15: War On The Rocks & Or De Vassy

1.50: Exitas

2.00: Ice Royal

2.35: William Henry

3.00: Bertie Boru

3.25: Aye Right

3.35: On The Blind Side, Aye Aye Charlie, Calett Mad, Momella & Poetic Rhythm

5.45: Cymbal

6.45: Georgian Bay

7.15: Cliffs Of Capri

8.15: Intermodal

8.45: Volturnus

FRIDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated)

CHELTENHAM (Six year study period):

36 races – 10 winning favourites – 31/36 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £211.03

Highest dividend: £589.10 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £25.90 (2011)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—David Pipe (14/1, 9/1, 8/1, 13/2, 7/4 & 6/4*) – 1 runner today:

What A Moment (12.40)

4 winners—Philip Hobbs  (14/1, 7/2, 5/4* & 4/7*) – 2 runners today:

Lamb Or Cod (12.40) & Bertie Boru (3.00)

Trainers of more than one winner in any year:

2014: Philip Hobbs (105/1 treble)

2011: David Pipe (186/1 treble)

NEWCASTLE (NH) (Four year study period):

27 races – 9 winning favourites – 23/27 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £823.95

Highest dividend: £3,120.20 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £17.20 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Nicky Rochards (9/1, 7/2**, 5/4* & 11/10*) – 3 runner today:

Hello Fellas (12.30) & Glinger Flame & That’s Life (3.25)

MORNING MARKET ASSESSMENT (at 8.00):

CHELTENHAM: 

1.15: Magic Dancer – 6/1 (Betfair)

1.50: Shanahan’s Turn – 8/1 (Stan James) – could be one of the movers of the day!

3.35: Poetic Rhythm – 7/1 (Stan James)

NEWCASTLE:

12.30: Jassas – 3/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

1.05: Bocasien Desbois – 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

1.40: Gris De Pron – 7/2 (Betfred/Tote)

3.25: Glinger Flame (16/1 (Ladbrokes)

LINGFIELD:

3.10: Wild Flower – 13/2 (PP) & Encapsulated – 25/1 (365)

CHELMSFORD (A/W):

7.45: Luxford – 7/1 (PP)

8.15: Intermodal – 17/2 (365)

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

 

 

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