Apr 20

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 20th

Thursday’s school report:

Only a couple of winners again yesterday at 11/2 (returned at 7/2) & 9/4 (backed down to 6/4), though the selections offered three non-runners on the day.

We are hitting the bar too often of late and a perfect example was offered yesterday when I offered a 20/1 chance each way in a big field, only for the hose to finish….fifth!

We all go through spells like this (two seconds yesterday at 12/1 & 11/1 which were returned at 13/2 & 9/2 respectively) and all we can do is get our heads down and keep working away.

That was my brief to myself yesterday as I trawled through five years of results relating to the month of May which will offer definite pointers for next month.  I will offer the first feature of my findings on Sunday.

Wishing us better luck today – thanks for your patience during this ‘lean time’.  I will turn this around….

APPROXIMMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

5.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.00: MAL’S NEWBURY ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.15: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 8 ADDITIONS

9.00: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

9.15: FRIDAY STAT ATTACK – FIVE YEAR TRENDS – ALL FIVE MEETINGS COVERED – DONE

11.30: POST CRAVEN MEETING STATS – WHERE YOU MONEY WIN (WIN, LOSE OR DRAW) – DONE

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BATH:

5.45: Rock On Baileys – 16/1 (PP/BetVictor)

Additional Bath entries at 8.00:

4.40: Diamond Dougal – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.10: Broadhaven Dream – 33/1 (Sportingbet)

6.15: Marietta Robsuti – 85/40 (Marathon)

7.45: Strictly Carter – 9/1 (BetVictor)

 

NEWBURY:

4.05: Champagne Champ – 11/1 (Hills/Betfair/BetVictor)

5.05: Exeat – 15/2 (365)

Additional Newbury entries at 8.00:

3.35: Blue De Vega – 10/1 (BetBright)

4.25: Two to consider: Tigre Du Terre – 12/1 (Marathon) & Bon Scotte – 16/1 (Marathon)

 

AYR:

3.45: Full Glass – 10/1 (Generally available)

4.15: Two to consider: Lofgren – 16/1 (Betfair/PP) & Verona Opera – 11/2 (Marathon)

4.45: Tara View – 11/1 (Betway) – looks a solid each way option at the time of writing

Additional Ayr entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

FONTWELL:

2.15: Favorito Bucks – 11/2 (Betfair)

3.25: Theos Charm – 9/2 (Coral/BetVictor)

3.55: Walk Of Gleams – 20/1 (365)

4.55: Irish Thistle – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Fontwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SOUTHWELL:

4.50: Two to consider: Free Range – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills/BetBright) & The Dawn Man – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

5.55: Riddlestown – 12/1 (PP)

7.25: Buckby Boy – 5/1 (Betfair)

Additional Southwell entry at 8.00:

6.55: Quantum Of Solace – 22/1 (Sportingbet)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS TODAY INCLUDE:

21/45—Charlie Appleby (+30) – 1 at Newbury: Rastrelli (4.35)

11/37—John Gosden (+13) – 1 at Newbury: Lah Ti Dah (3.00)

10/27—Micky Hammond (+51) – 3 runners: Just Cameron (3.45 Ayr) + 2 at Southwell: Free Range (4.50) & Dakota Grey (6.55)

9/21—Lucinda Russell (+15) – 1 at Ayr: Haul Us In (4.45)

8/21—William Haggas (+1) – 2 today: Tallow (2.25 Newbury) & Validator (4.40 Bath)

8/21—Saeed Bin Suroor (+10) – 1 at Newbury: White Light (3.00)

6/16—Ralph Beckett (+37) – 3 today – 2 at Newbury: Dave Dexter (1.50) & Arcadian Cat (3.00) + 1 at Bath: Raskolnikov (5.10)

6/17—Tom Dascombe (+22) – 1 at Bath: Sir Victor (5.10)

5/8—Tony Carroll (+35) – 3 chances: Prairie Town (4.15 Ayr) + 2 at Bath: Red Alert (7.15) & Prominna (7.45)

5/12—Richard Fahey (+22) – 4 today – 3 at Bath: Gangland (4.40), Marie Of Lyon (5.45) & Geoff Potts (7.15) + 1 at Ayr: Judge Earl (5.15)

4/10—Chris Gordon (+10) – 3 at Fontwell: Mellow Ben & Tara Bridge (1.40) & Shut The Box (5.30)

4/10—Nicky Henderson (+15) – 2 at Ayr: Darius Des Bois (3.15) & Theinval (3.45)

4/11—Simon Dow (+11) – 1 at Newbury: Albishr (2.25)

3/6—Alan Bailey (+8) – 1 at Bath: Strictly Carter (7.45)

3/6—Lawney Hill (+7) – 1 at Fontwell: Shimba Hills (1.40)

3/8—Nick Alexander (+25) – 1 at Ayr: Benny’s Secret (5.15)

3/9—Eve Johnson Houghton (+8) – 3 runners – 2 at Newbury: Papelaine & Gloria Tua (5.05) + 1 at Bath: Tin Hat (5.10)

Last two runners have won—Stuart Kittow (+10) – 3 at Bath: Beyond Equal (4.40), Comselle (6.15) & Youkan (6.45)

2/5—Pat Phelan (+14) – 1 at Fontwell: Keep To The Beat (3.55)

+3/9—Ron Harris (+6) – 9 runners today – 1 at Newbury & 8 at Bath

+ 2/3—Richard Hannon (+37) – 8 runners at Newbury today

36 runners – listed in race order from the in-form sector:

1.40: Shimba Hills, Tara Bridge & Mellow Ben

1.50: Dave Dexter

2.25: Albishr & Talow

3.00: White Light, Arcadian Cat & Lah Ti Dah

3.15: Darius Des Bois

3.45: Theinval & Just Cameron

3.55: Keep To The Beat

4.15: Prairie Town

4.35: Rastrelli

4.40: Beyond Equal, Gangland & Validator

4.45: Haul Us In

4.50: Free Range

5.05: Papelaine & Gloria Tua

5.10: Tin Hat, Sir Victor & Raskolnikov

5.15: Benny’s Secret & Judge Earl

5.30: Shut The Box

5.45: Marie Of Lyon

6.15: Comselle

6.45: Youkan

6.55: Dakota Grey

7.15: Red Alert & Geoff Potts

7.45: Strictly Carter & Prominna

 

FRIDAY STAT ATTACK (FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD UNLESS STATED):

ALL FIVE MEETINGS COVERED TODAY

 

NEWBURY (4 year study – meeting abandoned in 2016:

31 races – 8 winning favourites – 28/31 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £3,940.60

Highest dividend: £14,920.30 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £72.90 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

8 winners—John Gosden (Prices ranging between 10/1 & 5/4* – includes 292/1 four-timer in 2014) – 1 runner today: Lah Ti Dah (3.00)

 

BATH:

36 races – 11 winning favourites – 30/36 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £479.02

Highest dividend: £1,030.10 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £20.40 (2014)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Clive Cox (16/1, 10/1, 13/8*, 6/4* & 5/4*) – One 33/1 chance today: Blitz (5.45)

4 winners—Stuart Kittow (7/1, 7/2*, 7/2 & 6/4*) – 3 runners: Beyond Equal (4.40), Comselle (6.15) & Youkam (6.45)

 

AYR:

36 races – 11 winning favourites – 31/36 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £455.58

Highest dividend: £1,578.50 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £60.00 (2016)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Paul Nicholls (10/1, 5/2, 9/4 & 5/1**) – 4 runners today: Brahms De Clermont (2.05), Silent Steps (3.15), Romain De Senam (3.45) & Copain De Classe (4.15)

 

FONTWELL:

38 races – 9 winning favourites – 35/38 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £376.58

Highest dividend: £1,278.90 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £15.80 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Gary Moore (Prices ranging between 12/1 & 3/10*) – 10 runners today!

 

SOUTHWELL (NH – Six year study):

43 races – 15 winning favourites – 41/43 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £312.53

Highest dividend: £1,074.20 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £19.10 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Jonjo O’Neill (7/2*, 9/4 & 7/4*) – 1 runner: Capard King (5.55)

 

POST CRAVEN STAKES MEETING STATS FOR 2018:

(Trainers highlighted in bold secured level stake profits)

6/14—Charlie Appleby (4/1, 7/2, 11/4, 5/2*, 5/2 & 2/1**)

2/6—Ralph Beckett (14/1 & 3/1*)

2/8—Kevin Ryan (9/2 & 7/2)

2/9—Richard Fahey (8/1 & 6/1)

2/11—Roger Varian (6/4* & 5/4*)

2/12—Richard Hannon (28/1 & 25/1)

1/1—Karl Burke (7/1)

1/2—Ed Walker (7/1)

1/3—Stuart Williams (14/1)

1/4—Owen Burrows (25/1)

1/5—Tom Dascombe (11/4)

1/9—Mark Johnston (11/4)

1/13—Charlie Hills (4/1)

1/17—John Gosden (2/1)

 

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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